\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 899 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) )
Core view
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: the revenue was 64.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.35% and a month on month increase of + 15.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 143.88% and a month on month increase of + 40.14%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 6.043 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 144.01% and a month on month increase of + 44.19%. The outstanding performance has basically realized the thickening of performance brought by the simultaneous rise in the volume and price of core mineral products.
In terms of production and sales: the output of 22q1 mineral gold was 13.10 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 17.19%, and the sales volume was 13.73 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 27.18%; The output of mineral copper was 193600 tons (including kamoa equity), a year-on-year increase of + 52.70%, and the sales volume was 194800 tons (including kamoa equity), a year-on-year increase of + 63.42%; The output of mineral zinc was 108200 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 12.38%, and the sales volume was 105700 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 10.46%. The production and sales data of 22q1 core minerals of the company met the expectations and laid a good foundation for reaching the annual target. In the annual report of 2021, the company gives the annual output guidance: it is expected that the mineral gold will be 60 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.45%; 860000 tons of mineral copper, a year-on-year increase of + 47.21%; The mineral zinc (lead) was 480000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 10.50%.
The commodity boom cycle is at a high point, and the production and sales of core minerals are expected to continue to grow rapidly. The layout of the company on the resource side has overcome multiple challenges such as the epidemic situation after hard construction in recent years, and achieved the completion and operation of a number of major flagship projects beyond expectations. The large-scale stage of core mineral products is just at the stage when the price of bulk metals is at an all-time high, and the performance is expected to show explosive growth. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 15.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 140.80%, achieving the best performance year in history. It is expected that on this basis, the company is still expected to achieve substantial growth in 2022.
The strategic extension of the company will actively layout the new energy and new material industry promoted by the "double carbon" policy. 2021 is the key year for the company to achieve strategic extension. It has completed the M & A of Argentina's world-class high-grade 3Q lithium salt lake project and officially entered the new energy metal track. The first phase of 3q lithium salt lake project with an annual output of 20000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate has been started and is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2023; In addition, the project will simultaneously carry out the feasibility study of phase II project this year, and strive to start in 2023 to expand the annual capacity of lithium carbonate to 4 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 tons. We believe that the company has achieved strategic extension in 2021, and 2022 is expected to be a key year for the company to make breakthroughs in lithium battery new energy materials and open up new growth space.
Risk warning: the construction progress of the project does not meet the expectation, and the sales price of mineral products does not meet the expectation.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. The profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 247.1/251.3/254.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.8% / 1.7% / 1.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 24.09/26.7/28.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 53.7% / 8.2% / 9.5%; Diluted EPS is 0.92/0.99/1.08 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 13 / 12 / 11x. Considering that the company is the core target of China's nonferrous listed companies, with rich mineral resources reserves, accelerating internationalization process, strategic extension, active layout of new energy and new materials industry, clear medium and long-term growth path, it is expected to become a world-class international mining enterprise in the future and maintain the "buy" rating
