\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Event: Qia released the 2021 annual report, which was consistent with the performance express. In the whole year, the total operating income was 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.15%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 929 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.35%, and the non net profit deducted was 799 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.95%. Q4 achieved a total operating income of RMB 2.103 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 28.33%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 334 million, a year-on-year increase of + 21.46%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 308 million, a year-on-year increase of + 31.57%. It is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 8.5 yuan (including tax) for 10 shares.
Melon seeds are stable and nuts increase rapidly, which will be completed successfully in 2021. 1) Category: sunflower seeds / nuts, with an annual income of 3.943/1.366 billion yuan in 21 years, up + 5.86% / + 43.82% year-on-year. As the basic market of the company, melon seeds category has a slight slowdown in month on month growth due to the high base in the early stage, the removal of channels and the adjustment of internal organizational structure; As the second growth curve of the company, nuts continued to grow at a high speed. On the one hand, the dynamic sales of nut gift boxes were better during the Spring Festival. On the other hand, the company accelerated the sinking of channels and actively expanded new channels. The revenue end of Q4 increased by more than 28%. 2) Sub channels: direct sales (including e-commerce) / distribution and other revenues were 920 million yuan and 5.07 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 15.4% / 84.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.4% / 14.5%. By the end of 2021, the company had more than 1000 dealers, including more than 980 in China / abroad / more than 50. In addition, it actively expanded new channels including to-b business and catering channels to continuously consolidate channel advantages. 3) Sub regions: South / East / North / e-commerce / foreign countries achieved RMB 1.94/16.1/12.1/5.7/520 billion respectively, + 3.6% / + 18.8% / + 21.7% / + 11.0% / + 10.2%.
The cost impact is controllable, the price increase is conducted smoothly, and the profit is improved month on month. 1) Gross profit margin: in 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 32.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1pct. By product, sunflower seeds / nuts were 34.1% / 29.3%, up 0.8/1.0pct year-on-year. Quarterly, the gross profit margin of 21q4 reached 33.4%, up 1.3pct month on month. In October 2021, the company announced that it would raise the price of melon seed series by 8% – 18%, which can effectively cope with the increase of upstream raw materials, gradually release the price increase dividend and drive the gross profit margin upward; 2) Expense ratio: in 2021, the company’s sales expense ratio was 10.1%, year-on-year + 0.3pct, and the annual net interest rate was 15.5%, year-on-year + 0.3pct.
Profit forecast: considering the “double hundred goals” of the company’s revenue of 10 billion and one million terminals, under the steady growth of innovation of basic melon seed products and the large single product volume of second curve nuts, we expect the revenue of 7.11/82.1/9.13 billion yuan in 2022 / 23 / 24. Considering the smooth transmission of price rise, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.16/13.8/1.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25.3% / 18.6% / 13.5%, and the current market value corresponds to pe24.5% 7 / 20.8 / 18.3x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the opening progress is less than expected, and food safety problems
