\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Core view:
Event: on April 11, the company announced that the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 were 5.985 billion yuan and 929 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.2% / 15.4% respectively.
The year ended smoothly and 21q4 accelerated significantly. In 2021, the revenue reached 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%, which was consistent with the previous performance express; 21q4 achieved a revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.3%, which was significantly accelerated, mainly due to the superposition of low base effect and price increase to stimulate channel goods preparation. At the same time, the pre preparation of goods for the Spring Festival also made a positive contribution. In terms of products, the revenue of sunflower seeds / nuts / other products in 2021 was + 5.9% / 43.8% / 9.9% year-on-year respectively. The high increase of nuts was due to the release of category dividends and the development of new flavors by the company (probiotic flavors exceeded 100 million yuan). In terms of subregions, the revenue of the South / North / East / e-commerce / overseas in 2021 was + 3.6% / 21.7% / 18.8% / 11.0% / 10.2% year-on-year respectively. The 21h2 of e-commerce improved significantly month on month. It is expected that the marginal impact of community group purchase is weakened, and the 21h2 of overseas business is greatly impacted by the epidemic. In terms of channels, the revenues from direct sales and e-commerce / distribution and other businesses were + 6.4% / 14.5% year-on-year respectively. In addition, the number of outlets was about 120000 at the end of 2021. China’s core market continued to encrypt channels and actively developed overseas blank markets.
The price increase hedged the cost pressure, and the profitability remained stable. Gross profit margin: it was 32.0% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.1pct, and remained stable throughout the year. It was 33.4% in 21q4, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.2pct. It showed a trend of low before and high after the quarter, mainly due to the company’s price increase of melon seed products in October, corresponding to the year-on-year increase of + 0.8pct of sunflower seed gross profit margin in 21 years. Expense ratio: in 2021, the sales expense ratio was 10.1%, year-on-year + 0.3pct, and the management expense ratio was 5.2%, year-on-year -0.1pct, which remained stable as a whole. Net interest rate: it was 15.5% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.3pct. It remained stable throughout the year. Thanks to the company’s strong brand bargaining power, the price increase hedged the pressure of raw material cost. 21q4 was 15.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of -0.9pct, mainly due to the disturbance of investment income and non operating income.
Outlook: the price increase is expected to add to the catalytic demand of the epidemic, and the growth rate of 22h1 is expected to increase quarter by quarter. 1) The company’s brand has strong bargaining power in the melon seed industry. The channel price is transmitted smoothly, contributing to the increase of income. At the same time, it also effectively hedges the cost pressure; 2) In March, the epidemic situation in some parts of China repeatedly stimulated home consumption, and the company’s melon seed products benefited more; 3) 21 years of channel sinking and organizational structure reform, and 22 years of performance dividends are expected to be released; 4) The impact of 21q2 community group purchase led to a low base. To sum up, it is expected that the performance of 22h1 company is expected to increase rapidly.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.16/13.3/1.55 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.3% / 15.3% / 16.7%. The PE corresponding to the share price is 25 / 22 / 18x. The PE of the company in the past 22 years is close to the average level of 23x of the comparable company of leisure food (wind unanimously expected). It is covered for the first time and rated as “recommended”.
Risk tips: cost pressure exceeds expectations, new product cultivation is less than expected, food safety problems, etc.
