\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 135 Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) )
Revenue and profit grew steadily, and distributed photovoltaic was progressing smoothly
Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) 21fy achieved a revenue of 11.29 billion yuan, yoy + 22%. In a single quarter, the revenue of q1-4 was yoy + 37% / + 28% / + 21% / + 8%. The slowdown of revenue in the fourth quarter was related to the decline of industry prosperity; 21fy’s net profit attributable to the parent company was 490 million yuan, yoy + 82%, deducting 470 million yuan of non performance, yoy + 95%. The company’s chemical fiber business realized a net profit of 40 million yuan in 21 years, minus 150 million yuan in 20 years, and the net profit of the main project business was 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 6.9%. In 21 years, it signed strategic cooperation / investment framework agreements on distributed photovoltaic development with four governments / development zones, and disclosed that the total installed capacity was 2.45gw. It is expected to benefit from the engineering profits and investment income brought by distributed photovoltaic in the future.
A breakthrough has been made in the general contracting business, with full orders in hand
The revenue of steel structure subcontracting / engineering contracting / chemical fiber business of 21fy company was 6.06/18.6/3.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 0.4% / + 178% / + 51%, and the general contracting business made a rapid breakthrough; 21fy steel structure subcontracting + engineering contracting newly signed contracts amounted to 14.21 billion (1.8 times of revenue), a year-on-year increase of + 26.7%. There are full orders on hand, which is expected to benefit from the acceleration of infrastructure / manufacturing investment. At the current time point, the combined price difference between POY / FDY and PTA / MEG is further reduced compared with 21h2, which may mean that the current profitability of the company’s chemical fiber business is still weak.
Strong purchasing ability, fearless of steel price fluctuations, and tight funds in the industrial chain affect cash flow
The gross profit margin of 21fy of the company was 13.3%, year-on-year + 1.7pct, and the gross profit margin of steel structure subcontracting / engineering contracting / chemical fiber business was 15.3% / 14.7% / 6.4%, year-on-year -0.2pct / + 1.5pct / + 9.0pct. Steel prices rose sharply last year, but the company’s steel structure business was less affected, reflecting its strong purchasing ability. The profit margin of general contracting business has increased with the expansion of income. We expect that it is still expected to continue to reflect a certain scale effect in the future. The company’s R & D expenses are relatively stable at -0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01pcy / + 0.01. The provision for asset / credit impairment increased by 74 million yuan year-on-year, which had a great impact on profits, mainly due to the company’s provision for Evergrande and other customers of 22 million yuan for single impairment and aging impairment. 21fy’s cash to cash ratio was 88.3%, year-on-year -9.7pct, cash to cash ratio was 90.9%, year-on-year -0.8pct, net CFO was -440 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 890 million yuan. We believe that the rapid increase of the company’s general contracting income and the relative shortage of funds in the industrial chain last year resulted in a large increase in accounts receivable and contract assets, which are the main reasons affecting the cash flow.
Optimistic about the growth of EPC + BIPV and maintain the “buy” rating
In the past, the company has the industry-leading technical capacity of steel structure and roof engineering. We believe that the company’s BIPV business has channel and technical advantages, and EPC + BIPV is expected to provide better growth sustainability in the future. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 610 / 770 / 950 million. At present, the comparable company’s 22-year wind unanimously expects pe24 times. It is optimistic that the company is optimistic about the growth of EPC + BIPV. It gives 25 times PE in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 13 yuan, and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the continuous rise of steel price has a greater impact on profits than expected; The profit fluctuation of chemical fiber business exceeded expectations; BIPV business promotion was less than expected.
