\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 484 Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) )
Deep ploughing aluminum electrolytic capacitors for more than 60 years, forward-looking layout of thin film capacitors and super capacitors. Founded in 1958, after years of development, the company has become a leading manufacturer of aluminum electrolytic capacitors in the world, and has formed a product layout of coordinated development of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, thin film capacitors and super capacitors. With the rapid development of downstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, energy storage and other emerging industries, the company grasped the favorable situation on the demand side of the industry, actively explored the emerging industry market, and realized the wide application of products in various emerging industries.
The vigorous development of new energy brings new opportunities for the development of capacitor industry. 1) Thin film capacitor: the downstream has the highest prosperity and maximum elasticity. It is estimated that the global market space of thin film capacitors for new energy vehicles will reach 7.8 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 56% from 2021 to 2025; All inverters in the photovoltaic field need to apply thin-film capacitors. It is estimated that the global thin-film capacitor market space in the photovoltaic field will be 4.9 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will reach 20% from 2021 to 2025; It is estimated that the global thin-film energy storage capacitor market will reach 6.7 billion yuan in 2025, and the use of thin-film energy storage capacitor will reach 56.6% in 20212025. The depth of thin-film capacitance benefits from the development of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and energy storage fields, with the greatest flexibility. 2) Aluminum electrolytic capacitor: the market space is growing steadily, and the localization trend is obvious. With the continued strong demand for new energy and new infrastructure in the future and the accelerated development of industrial frequency conversion, 5g, medical and other markets, the demand increment of aluminum electrolytic capacitors is expected to remain high, with an average of about 7.1% from 2020 to 2025. At present, due to the significant cost disadvantage, foreign manufacturers have generally shrunk to the medium and high-end market, and the localization trend is obvious. 3) Super capacitor: the market is growing rapidly and has great development potential. Super capacitor is a new energy storage device. In 2020, the global market scale of super capacitor will be 19.7 billion yuan. In the future, with the growth of demand for super capacitor applications in downstream applications such as power grid, rail transit and new energy passenger cars, the super capacitor market will usher in a high-speed growth trend. It is expected that the scale of the global super capacitor market is expected to reach 58.3 billion yuan by 2026, and the CAGR is 16.5% from 2020 to 2026.
The company's product layout is perfect, fully benefiting from the rapid development of downstream fields. 1) In the field of thin-film capacitors, the company has formed a clear layout of three lines of industrial control photovoltaic, consumer and vehicle. Batch delivery has begun in the field of new energy vehicles and military industry. The new production line of thin-film capacitors for photovoltaic has also been mass produced. In the field of electric vehicles, the company has also won many projects from automobile brands and electric driver manufacturers. The company plans to expand its production by 40% in 2022, with sufficient momentum for future development. 2) The company's aluminum electrolytic capacitor covers industrial automation, 5g communication equipment, data center, new energy and other fields, extends the layout of upstream electrode foil, and realizes the self-sufficiency of key raw materials by more than 75%; MLPC is actively deployed. At present, the production capacity is about 15 million units / month, and it is expected to reach 30 million units / month by the end of 2022, creating an important growth pole in the future. 3) The company has an early layout in the field of super capacitor and has certain technical advantages. Its products have been applied in batch in the fields of wind power, rail transit, new energy passenger cars and so on, with sufficient power for future development.
Investment suggestion: it is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be RMB 621 million, RMB 766 million and RMB 960 million, with the corresponding valuation of 25.4, 20.6 and 16.4 times. Referring to the 23 times of the average valuation of comparable companies in 2022, considering the high technical difficulty of thin-film capacitor and super capacitor, the company's thin-film capacitor and super capacitor enter the large-scale stage, and it is expected that the proportion of revenue of the two businesses will continue to increase in the future. The company whose main business is thin-film capacitor Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) 2022 valuation of comparable companies is 37.7 times, significantly higher than other comparable companies in the industry. The company is rated as "buy" for the first time.
Risk tips: 1. The downstream demand is less than expected; 2. Price fluctuation of raw materials; 3. New market development is less than expected; 4. Exchange rate risk; 5. Risk of untimely update of information and data used in Research Report
