\u3000\u30006 Oceanwide Holdings Co.Ltd(000046) 00004)
Event:
Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) issue annual report for 2021
In terms of business, the company completed 362000 flights / yoy-2.90%, 40.257 million passengers / yoy-8.00% and 2.045 million tons / yoy + 12.00% in 2021, up to 73.73%, 54.86% and 106.51% in 2019 respectively.
Among them, 4q2021 completed 90000 flights / yoy-25.42%, 9.2954 million passengers / yoy-37.31%, and 568600 tons / yoy + 10.33%, respectively, reaching 71.68%, 49.25% and 108.26% of the same period in 2019.
In terms of finance, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 5.180 billion yuan / yoy-0.85% in 2021, up from 65.82% in the same period in 2019; Net profit attributable to parent company -406 million yuan / yoy-62.17%; Deduct net profit not attributable to parent company – 455 million yuan / yoy + 30.38%.
Among them, 4q2021 achieved an operating revenue of 1.551 billion yuan / yoy + 5.98%, reaching 76.15% of the same period in 2019; Net profit attributable to parent company: 84 million yuan / yoy + 71.58%; Deduct 69 million yuan / yoy + 140.25% of the net profit not attributable to the parent company.
Key investment points:
The spread of the epidemic interfered with the recovery, and the annual revenue was flat year-on-year
Under the interference of the local epidemic, the business recovery of the company continued to be disturbed, and the annual passenger throughput decreased slightly by 8% year-on-year, equivalent to 54.86% in 2019. Among them, the impact was more obvious in the second half of the year. The passenger flow of 4q2021 decreased by 37.31% year-on-year, less than 50% in the same period of 2019. However, the company actively expanded the business of changing customers to goods, and the annual cargo and mail throughput increased by 12% year-on-year. At the same time, benefiting from factors such as the cancellation of flight charge reduction and the improvement of advertising business revenue in the second half of the year, the company’s annual aviation service and advertising business revenue increased by 5.74% and 23.51% respectively year-on-year, and the company’s operating revenue increased by 5.98% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, which was the highest quarter since the outbreak of the epidemic, and the annual revenue was basically flat year-on-year.
Year on year growth of non deferred income tax assets
Benefiting from the increase of deductible losses in this year, the deferred income tax assets increased by 115% year-on-year, and the company recorded an income tax income of 145 million yuan in the whole year. Among them, 4q2021 income tax contributed nearly 70 million yuan, which helped the company turn around its losses in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 35 million yuan. However, due to the implementation of the new leasing standards and the reduction of interest income, the financial expenses of the company in 2021 increased by 206 million yuan year-on-year. In addition, in 2021, non recurring gains and losses such as gains and losses on disposal of non current assets and government subsidies received decreased by 142 million yuan and 67 million yuan respectively year-on-year. In conclusion, due to the continuous epidemic and other factors, the net loss attributable to the parent company in 2021 expanded again year-on-year, but the deduction of non loss narrowed to -455 million yuan year-on-year.
One of China’s three major gateway airports, waiting for the turning point of passenger flow to appear
Airports in first tier cities are the core assets of China’s civil aviation industry with high quality. With the gradual operation of new infrastructure, they are evolving from a single public service infrastructure to a top-level shopping center with online popular catering and luxury products. With LV winning the bid of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) t2 terminal taxable business and registering Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport store in December 2021, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) ‘s top luxury brand store matrix has ushered in a milestone breakthrough, and the realization efficiency of taxable end is expected to be gradually improved in the future. As one of China’s three major gateway airports, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) long-term passenger flow is planned to be 140 million, which is twice as large as 73.3 million in 2019. At present, it is in the climbing period of capacity utilization in the capital construction cycle. Although affected by the continuous impact of the epidemic, the company faces great operating pressure in the medium and short term, its essence as a high-end traffic platform has not changed, and its natural monopoly position has not changed.
Profit forecast and investment rating
Taking into account the impact of the current epidemic and the company’s future business recovery progress and other factors, we adjust the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.213 billion yuan, 5.817 billion yuan and 8.542 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be – 120 million yuan, 136 million yuan and 1.810 billion yuan respectively. It is estimated that the PE in 2023 and 2024 will be 217 times and 16 times respectively. As China’s anti epidemic entered the second half, the inflection point of China’s epidemic was gradually approaching. We continued to be optimistic about the long-term investment value of the company. On the opening day, we maintained the “buy” rating when the value returned.
Risk tip: the epidemic rebounds again, major policy changes, infrastructure progress is less than expected, store investment is less than expected, etc.
