\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company announced that in the first quarter of 2022, the company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 10.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 43%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 3.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 70%.
The company continued to focus on brand potential energy and made a successful start in 22 years: previously, the company had predicted that the operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February were more than + 35% and more than + 50% respectively year-on-year. In the case of the outbreak of the epidemic in many places across the country in March, the company's dynamic sales remained stable and the inventory was low. By continuously gathering brand potential energy and comprehensively improving operation efficiency, the company successfully achieved high growth. In terms of products, the growth rate of Qinghua 20 is fast. At present, the revival version of Qinghua 30 mainly focuses on cultivating the consumption atmosphere and stabilizing the price. According to today's wine price, the wholesale prices of Qinghua 20 / Qinghua 30 revival version are 375 yuan / 830 yuan respectively. At present, the company's product lines have clear ideas and accurate positioning: Qinghua 20 contributes performance flexibility, Qinghua 30 revival version focuses on high-end, Bofen's control volume is stable, the basic sector is stable, laobaifen and Panama are still growing steadily, and other products such as Zhuyeqing achieve high growth on a low base.
Nationalization has entered positive feedback, and the product structure continues to upgrade. The national expansion of the company has entered the positive feedback strengthening stage, the blue and white series has led the growth, the introduction outside Panama is progressing smoothly, the medium and high-end products continue to be in large quantities, and the product structure is expected to be continuously optimized. According to the channel research, in the case of large quantities of blue and white flowers around the Spring Festival in some regions, the wholesale price fluctuated slightly, and has stabilized smoothly, confirming the company's strong control ability over channels and terminals. It is expected that the improvement of product structure is expected to bring about the continuous improvement of the company's gross profit margin and further strengthen its profitability.
The high potential energy market outside the province continued to increase, and the performance increased significantly with the promotion of nationalization. The company continued to deepen the "1357 + 10" market layout, and the upgrading process of the structure in the province was fast. At the same time, it deeply focused on the core market outside the province, and the fragrance leading brand gradually gained popularity. The blue and white 30 revival edition will quickly stand firm at the price of 1000 yuan and further strengthen the positioning of Qingxiang leading brand, which is expected to achieve good transmission for the improvement of the company's product structure. From the perspective of the effect of nationalization, there are many mobile sales outside the province, and the growth path of the company in the 14th five year plan is clear. It is expected to continue high growth in 2022.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.36 yuan and 6.62/8.29 yuan, with a 6-month target price of 298 yuan, corresponding to pe45x in 2022. Give a Buy-A rating.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Economic downturn; Blue and white series thousand yuan price blocked.
