Weekly report of textile and garment industry: geopolitical influence, cotton prices outside China continue to hang upside down

This week Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shandong Nanshan Fashion Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(300918) released annual report performance, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) 2021

The company’s income / net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 17.470/2.768 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25.40% / 47.34%. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, the income / net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 34.09% / 57.55% year-on-year. 21q4 revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company were RMB 4.835 billion / 771 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 33% / 37%. The month on month acceleration and Q4 net interest rate reached the highest level in the year.

Shandong Nanshan Fashion Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(300918) in 2021, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 1.492/1.52/140 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 9.88% / 74.17% / 75.19%, an increase of – 15.75% / 24.59% / 28.44% compared with 19 years. The revenue did not recover to the level of 19 years, which was mainly affected by the business of Western-style clothing.

At present, we recommend three main lines: (1) the first quarterly report is expected to exceed expectations: Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc(603889) , Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) , Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) ;

(2) subject matter with limited downward space at the bottom of the Valuation: recommended Jinhong Fashion Group Co.Ltd(603518) , happy bird;

(3) target of growth track and less affected by economic slowdown: Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) .

Market review: underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.94pct

This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, the gem index fell by 3.64%, the SW textile and garment sector fell by 1.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.94pct and the gem index by 1.76pct, of which the SW textile manufacturing fell by 2.28% and the SW clothing home textile fell by 1.69%. At present, the PE of SW textile and garment industry is 14.53. This week, underwear performed best, with an increase of 0.63%; Underwear performed the worst, down 4.25%.

Market data tracking: China’s cotton price index fell 0.51% this week

As of April 8, China’s cotton 328 index was 22751 yuan / ton, down 0.51% this week. As of April 8, China’s imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 23452 yuan / ton, down 1.52% this week. As of April 7, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 23783 yuan / ton, down 2.18% this week.

According to the latest April global cotton supply and demand balance released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA), the total global cotton production in 2021 / 2022 is expected to be 26.17 million tons, up 75000 tons from the previous month; The unit yield was 816 kg / ha, an increase of 8 kg / ha month on month; The consumption demand is expected to be 27014000 tons, with a month on month decrease of 101000 tons; The ending inventory is expected to be 18.153 million tons, an increase of 175000 tons month on month.

According to the latest supply and demand balance of China’s cotton in April released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA), the total output of China’s cotton in 2021 / 2022 is expected to be 5.879 million tons, which is flat compared with the previous month; The unit yield was 1896 kg / ha, unchanged from the previous month; Consumer demand is expected to be 8.491 million tons, down 109000 tons month on month; The ending inventory is expected to be 7.92 million tons, an increase of 44000 tons month on month.

Industry news

Weimi: the sale of business in China has completed an equity transaction of US $45 million; Levi’s: Q1 sales in fiscal year 2022 increased by 21.8% year-on-year; Farfetch: invest US $200 million in Neiman Marcus, an American luxury department store group; Lululemon: revenue soared 42% to US $6.3 billion, and prices were selectively increased this year; Mushang group: revenue of RMB 2.69 billion in 2021; The founder of Zara became the richest man in the garment industry; PVH group: the net profit of last fiscal year was nearly US $1 billion.

Risk tips

The epidemic broke out again; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.

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