Zhou viewpoint: pay attention to the trend of leading enterprises such as Byd Company Limited(002594) and April is the key layout period
(1) new energy vehicles: from the perspective of the downstream market, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced to stop production of fuel vehicles in March, which shows the determination of the leader to further lead the accelerated penetration of electrification, and also shows that electric vehicles have a stronger product power than fuel vehicles; The global market share of its batteries and cars is expected to continue to increase, and the company as a whole still has great room for revaluation, especially from the perspective of power batteries. From the perspective of the overall industrial chain, at present, the supply of lithium carbonate, graphitization of negative electrode and other links is still tight; However, we expect the price of lithium carbonate to loosen periodically in the next two months; Looking forward to the long term, the leaders of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Tesla and other industrial chains will increase the layout of upstream resources, and the price fluctuation of the industrial chain will be greatly reduced in the future. From the perspective of regional layout, leading enterprises will accelerate their overseas layout in 2022, and the overseas production capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) and others is expected to be released. Caution in the short term: the supply chain of Weilai automobile is affected by the epidemic, and the data in April may be affected. It is expected to be a short-term impact. From the perspective of investment rhythm, the stage with the largest contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass, and the second quarter is the rebound window period; As the demand side is better, the supply side of the industrial chain will be released faster in the second half of the year, and the growth environment will be better. We believe that we should pay attention to three-way investment opportunities: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (batteries, lithium resources, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , and other companies benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and others benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest according to the penetration rate, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic: photovoltaic is at a short-term trough due to multiple factors, and the current stage is a better layout period. First of all, the recent continuous rise in component prices has affected the downstream installation demand. In addition, the short-term epidemic affects transportation. We expect these conditions to improve in May; Secondly, during the recent inventory of subsidies for power stations, the phenomena of over loading, rush loading and replacement of power stations have been found, which has periodically affected the downstream investment sentiment. We expect it to be solved in the third quarter. We are mainly optimistic about three directions: (a) terminal links such as global leading components with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) and other benefits; (b) Innovation at the industrial end (n-type battery, granular silicon, localization of parts, etc.) benefits Jingke energy, poly GCL energy, Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) etc. (c) Power station and other post cycle links, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , etc.
(3) wind power: the bidding price of industrial chain products has reached the bottom range, and the current stage is a good window period for wind power plant investment; At the same time, the bottom of the bidding price corresponds to the low level of manufacturing stocks, which is worth long-term layout at present. Long term optimistic about offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and other companies benefit; Wind power plant investment and operators benefit in the short term.
Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) : the leader of electric vehicle flat wire, with both internal and external repair, is optimistic about its growth
The company’s profit increased significantly, and the electromagnetic wire business fully benefited from the flat wire trend of electric vehicles. Profitability continued to improve.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: Byd Company Limited(002594) since March 2022, the production of complete vehicles of fuel vehicles has been stopped. New energy vehicle companies: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. At the photovoltaic industry level, the central monocrystalline silicon chip rose by 0.14 ~ 0.21 yuan / piece, with a maximum increase of 2.55%. At the photovoltaic company level: Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co.Ltd(300040) Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) release the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022 at the level of wind energy industry: Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) release the performance forecast announcement for the first quarter of 2022
Risk warning: the impact and demand of the epidemic are less than expected
