In April, the report lowered 2021 / 2022 soybean production and trade scale
On April 10, 2022, USDA released the forecast report of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply and demand in April. Compared with the forecast report in March, the main adjustments include: reducing the output and trade scale of global soybeans; The output of corn and wheat increased slightly compared with that of the previous month, but the trade scale was under pressure. The main reasons driving the above adjustments include: (1) the pre increase of corn production in South America and the obstruction of global import and export; (2) The growth environment of South American soybean is poor, and the pressure on Yield and inventory is still large; (3) Global wheat production is expected to rise and Global trade circulation is not smooth; (4) The rice yield was slightly revised down, and the ending inventory was also reduced.
China's total output of wheat, corn and consumption increased month on month
Corn: according to the April report, the global corn output, import volume and export volume in 2021 / 2022 are expected to be 1.210, 182 and 197 million tons respectively. China's consumption, feed consumption and ending inventory are 1.197, 753 and 305 million tons respectively, and the inventory consumption ratio is expected to be 25.52% (year-on-year + 0.36 PCT). Brazil's total corn production in 2021 / 22 will reach a record 116 million metric tons, 2 million tons more than that in March, an increase of 29 million tons year-on-year.
Wheat: according to the April report, the global wheat output, import volume and export volume are expected to be 779 million tons, 197 million tons and 200 million tons respectively in 2021 / 2022. China's consumption, feed consumption and ending inventory are 791 million tons, 162 million tons and 278 million tons respectively, and the inventory consumption ratio is expected to be 35.19% (year-on-year -0.56 PCT).
Soybean: global supply is still tight, and the scale of import and export trade is reduced
According to the report in April, the global soybean output, import volume and export volume in 2021 / 2022 are estimated to be 351 million tons, 153 million tons and 155 million tons respectively. China's consumption, crushing volume and ending inventory are 361 million tons, 313 million tons and 90 million tons respectively, and the inventory consumption ratio is expected to be 24.75% (year-on-year + 0.02 PCT). In April, the report continued to reduce global soybean production. Due to the reduction of crop production in Brazil and Paraguay, global soybean production is expected to decrease by 3.08 million tons to 351 million tons. In terms of consumption, the predicted global soybean crushing volume in April was 0.75% lower than that in March to 313 million tons. In terms of trade, the import and export of global soybeans decreased significantly compared with March, to 2.43% and 2.11% respectively. Among them, China's soybean import is expected to decrease by 3 million tons to 91 million tons. The decline in soybean exports from Brazil, Paraguay, Russia and Ukraine was partially offset by the increase in US exports. In terms of inventory, the global ending inventory is expected to decrease by 400000 tons to 89.6 million tons, which is mainly affected by the reduction of inventory in the United States and Argentina.
Rice: Global trade has increased
According to the report in April, the global rice output, import volume and export volume in 2021 / 2022 are estimated to be 513 million tons, 51 million tons and 52 million tons respectively, and China's consumption and ending inventory are 511 million tons and 189 million tons respectively. The inventory consumption ratio is expected to be 36.94% (year-on-year -0.34pct). It is estimated that in 2021 / 2022, China's inventory consumption ratio will be 72.70% (year-on-year -0.28pct), China's rice supply level will be relatively stable, and the pattern of booming supply and demand will remain unchanged.
Risk tips: natural disaster risk, climate change risk, geopolitical risk, import and export policy risk.
