This week’s view:
Planting industry chain: Recently, after the interruption of Ukrainian corn export caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European farmers turned to the United States and South America to purchase more GM feed. Ukrainian corn is non GM corn, while the United States and Brazil mainly grow GM corn. Previously, non GM corn in Ukraine usually accounted for nearly half of EU corn imports, with Spain and the Netherlands as the main buyers. EU countries are relaxing import regulations on genetically modified products because of the current global food safety problems. Spain temporarily allowed Trace Pesticide Residues in imported shipments to make up for the supply gap in Ukraine. Spain will receive corn shipments from the United States, Argentina and Brazil in the next two weeks. The Spanish Association of feed producers (cesfac) said the move would help avoid supply shortages. China is also actively promoting the marketization of genetically modified crops. If, with the aggravation of food shortage, countries gradually relax the import regulations on genetically modified products, with the positive impact of external policies and the positive guidance of Chinese policies, the development of China’s genetically modified seed industry will usher in a tuyere period, and relevant listed companies have ushered in an important window period. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2022 has been six years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the stable target focuses on recommending Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , the leader of China’s sugar industry, and the flexible target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks with a valuation of only 11 times Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) . We expect that the performance elasticity in 2022 will come from the production of new lysine capacity by the end of 2021. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 12.54 yuan / kg, up 1.49% on a weekly basis. The average price of pigs rose month on month this week, but the trend showed a downward trend within the week. At the end of last week, 40000 tons of pork were collected and stored, and all transactions were not sold out. With the addition of the boost of the Qingming small and long holiday, the pig price rose slightly during the holiday. However, the covid-19 epidemic in Shanghai and other places recently spilled out, involving many provinces and cities, and the catering consumption decreased. On the last day of the holiday, the pig price fell again. The boosting effect of collection and storage also appeared to be insufficient under the strong pressure of oversupply, and the decline of pig price showed signs of increasing in the second half of the week. According to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the recent pig grain price ratio has continued to be lower than 5:1, which is in the level I early warning range of excessive decline determined in the working plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring supply and price stability in the pork market. The development and Reform Commission and relevant parties will carry out the collection and storage of the fourth batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year. It is planned to collect and store another 40000 tons of frozen pork in the near future, which is expected to boost market confidence at that time. In terms of cost, the tension of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has eased moderately, the rise of international energy and some Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices has slowed down and corrected moderately, the new purchase demand of Chinese demand terminals and traders continues to catch up, the mood has eased moderately, the enthusiasm of downstream orders is not good, the overall market is not prosperous, and the corn price fluctuated and decreased this week. According to the feed industry information network, the average spot price of corn this week is 279733 yuan / ton, The weekly decline was 0.05%. In terms of soybean meal, as the new season soybeans in South America successively arrive at the port and are expected to continue to increase in the later stage, the imported soybeans from the State Reserve continue to auction and flow into soybean crushing enterprises, the supply of soybeans increases, and the price of soybean meal is significantly loosened. According to the statistics of feed industry information network, the price of 43% protein soybean meal in coastal areas has fallen to 4463 yuan / ton, down 115 yuan / ton from 4578 yuan / ton last week. Due to the reduction of raw material prices, many feed enterprises began to reduce prices, and the feed price decreased by 50-300 yuan / ton, easing the pressure on the cost side of pig breeding. From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8 , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected
