Global soybean production and trade scale are under pressure, and the output of corn and wheat is expected to increase
In terms of corn, the wasde report in April estimated that the annual corn export volume was 197 million tons, down 3 million tons from 200 million tons in March, and the corn export to Ukraine was reduced from 27.5 million tons to 23 million tons. However, the report in April did not increase the export scale of American corn in 2021 planting season. The main reason may be the pre increase of American bean planting area in the new season, the run on corn planting area in the new season, and there is no expectation of increase in American corn production. In terms of soybeans, the climate conditions faced by South American soybeans are still severe. In April, the report reduced Brazilian soybeans from 127 million tons to 125 million tons. Due to the severe drought, Paraguay’s soybean production has been reduced from 5.3 million tons to 4.2 million tons. Although the rainfall in March is beneficial to the growth of soybean in the second season, the reduction of soybean production in the first season is a foregone conclusion.
In terms of wheat, Australia continues to maintain its high-yield expectation, the EU wheat production increases slightly, the overall adjustment range of wasde report is not large, and the situation of Russia and Ukraine will still be the key factor leading the later trade pattern in the later stage. The export adjustment reported in April included a decrease of 3.5 million tons in EU exports and 1 million tons in Ukraine exports. France is the largest wheat producer in Europe. At present, the growth trend of main varieties is good.
Zhou’s view: the reversal of the pig cycle is imminent, and food prices continue to rise due to multidimensional catalysis
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rises, the demand in the lower reaches is booming, and the concentration of feed market in the middle reaches continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Market performance this week (4.6-4.8): Agriculture underperformed the market by 3.78 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% and the agricultural index fell 4.72%, 3.78 percentage points lower than the market. In terms of sub sectors, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and forestry sector led the rise, with an increase of 2.29%. In terms of individual stocks, gains were led by Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (+ 13.83%), Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings Co.Ltd(000833) (+ 7.53%) and ST Huaying (+ 5.22%).
Price tracking this week (4.6-4.8): the futures prices of piglets, white feather chickens, grass carp and sugar rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on April 8, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.29 yuan / kg, down 0.19 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of piglets was 24.30 yuan / kg, up 0.04 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of white striped meat was 16.73 yuan / kg, down 0.02 yuan / kg from last week. On April 8, the price ratio of pig feed was 3.23:1. According to wind data, on April 8, the average profit of self breeding head was -511.57 yuan / head, compared with + 19.48 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets was -282.58 yuan / head, with a month on month increase of + 9.81 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.71 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 15.54%; The average price of wool chicken was 8.56 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 1.06%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 1.29 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 0.17 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is down, and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc
