Key investment points
[six ministries and commissions named large-scale application of green hydrogen] on April 7, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and other six ministries and commissions jointly issued the guiding opinions on promoting high-quality development of petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan. Among them, green hydrogen / hydrogen rich raw materials have been mentioned many times, including accelerating the breakthrough of key technologies such as new catalysis, green synthesis, function structure integrated polymer material manufacturing, and large-scale application of “green hydrogen”; Reasonably increase the proportion of hydrogen to replace coal as fuel; Encourage petrochemical and chemical enterprises to develop and utilize “green hydrogen” reasonably and orderly according to local conditions, and promote the coupling demonstration of refining and chemical industry, coal chemical industry, green electricity, green hydrogen and other industries; Moderately increase the import of light, low-carbon and hydrogen rich raw materials.
[important information and announcement] on April 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile officially announced that it would stop the whole vehicle production of fuel vehicles from March 2022. On the evening of April 6, Chery New Energy announced that affected by the continuous sharp rise in the prices of raw materials such as batteries and chips, it would raise the prices of some models, ranging from 2900 yuan to 5000 yuan. On April 10, Weilai automobile announced that the starting prices of es8, ES6 and ec6 models were increased by 10000 yuan. On April 8, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) issued a pre increase announcement for the first quarter. It is estimated that from January to March 2022, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be 1.35-1.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 408% to 506%. On April 5, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) announced that the company received a letter from the Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission on April 1, canceling the preferential tariff policies and measures enjoyed by the company in Yunnan Province. From September 1, 2021, all electricity prices of the company will be formed through electricity market-oriented transactions and settled directly with power grid enterprises.
[up and down game] the price of cobalt and lithium at the raw material end fell for a long time, and the price of electrolyte fell] [cobalt] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 8, the mainstream price of electrolytic cobalt in China was 549574000 yuan / ton, and the average price decreased by 10000 yuan / ton compared with last week. Cobalt sulfate was reported at 118000119000 yuan / ton, with the average price falling by 0700 yuan / ton compared with last week. Co3O4 reported 4385443500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 10000 yuan / ton lower than last week. In terms of cobalt, recent market transactions are sporadic, smelters are generally seriously accumulated, and the arrival of intermediate products in Hong Kong has improved. It is expected that the supply of cobalt salt will be surplus in April, and some material factories announced to reduce production in April, and the demand for cobalt salt will be further weakened. Combined with the recent cobalt salt transaction situation, the recycled material smelters are competing to sell goods at low prices, the intermediate smelters are difficult to bear the pressure, and the quotation begins to decline. Generally speaking, it is expected that the cobalt salt price may still decline in the next week. [lithium] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 8, the price of metal lithium was 3.114-3.2075 million yuan / ton, with an average price of 10000 yuan / ton higher than last week. The mainstream price of battery grade lithium carbonate was reported at 498 Hainan Jingliang Holdings Co.Ltd(000505) 000 yuan / ton, with the average price falling by 10000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) is 488000495000 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as that of last week. There is still a big decline in the price of lithium plants in the upper and lower reaches of the week, and there is still a slight decline in the price of lithium plants in the lower reaches of the week. In terms of lithium hydroxide, the tension in the spot market has eased slightly due to increased supply and reduced demand, and the price is expected to remain stable. [ternary materials] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 8, the price of ternary materials (type 523) was 3675374400 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The quotation of ternary precursor (type 523) is 154 Wasu Media Holding Co.Ltd(000156) 500 yuan / ton, and the average price is 10000 yuan / ton higher than last week. The price of lithium salt at the cost end of ternary materials decreased slightly, the precursor remained stable, and the manufacturing cost decreased slightly. On the supply side, the operating rate decreased slightly due to the increasing difficulty of lithium price transmission. On the demand side, due to the nickel price event and the strong preparation and production in the early stage, the superposition of subsequent terminal orders is not stable, and some battery factories have reduced the warehouse. The price of ternary materials is expected to remain stable in the future. [lithium iron phosphate cathode] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on April 8, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 1 Qingdao Victall Railway Co.Ltd(605001) 65000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 1485152500 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as last week. On the raw material side, the price of iron phosphate stabilized, the price of lithium salt decreased slightly, and the manufacturing cost of iron lithium decreased slightly. The weakening of terminal demand has led to a growing wait-and-see mood for iron and lithium in the downstream. However, due to the current use of high price lithium salt inventory production in the early stage, iron and lithium enterprises have supported the price and stabilized as a whole. [electrolyte] the price of electrolyte (for ternary power) is 11 Anhui Expressway Company Limited(600012) 6000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 9000 yuan / ton lower than last week. On the raw material side, the new capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate continued to climb, and the market supply increased. VC additives, sufficient solvent supply, supply and demand tend to balance; On the demand side, the continuous game between upstream and downstream leads to the postponement of the expansion of terminal battery production and the weakening of demand, and the price of raw materials continues to be under pressure. At present, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has fallen to about 500000 yuan / ton. The cost of raw materials is low, the electrolyte market is generally under pressure, and the future price is expected to weaken slightly. It’s highly recommended to focus on: ‘s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 35.
According to pvinfolink data, on April 6, the mainstream quotation of [silicon material] polycrystalline silicon compact was 245000 yuan / ton, and the average price was the same as that of last week. Recently, silicon material enterprises have successively planned production line maintenance. Although the specific impact on the output of each enterprise still needs time to be checked and confirmed, for the effective supply with slow growth, the supply-demand relationship between silicon material supply and crystal drawing material demand in April is expected to be difficult to improve. [silicon chip] the mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal silicon chip is 6.700 yuan / PC, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 8.950 yuan / PC, with the average price rising by 1.1% compared with last week. The spread of the epidemic has expanded and the degree of epidemic prevention and control in many places in China has been upgraded, which has increased the difficulty of logistics and transportation and reduced the traffic efficiency. The crystal pulling production area is relatively concentrated, and the delivery time of goods is difficult to ensure timely arrival, which continues to cause trouble to the industry. [cell] the mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal perc cell is 1.145 yuan / W, with the average price rising by 0.4% compared with last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm single crystal perc battery is 1.150 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The overall battery price is at the high price level, and the buyer and the seller are still playing a game. [components] the mainstream quotation of 365375 / 440450w single crystal single glass perc components is 1.870 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal single glass perc module is 1.890 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. After the Qingming Festival, the epidemic in China continued to burn, and the short-term logistics impact was severe. The component manufacturers were worried about the subsequent material interruption. The component manufacturers were still actively purchasing raw materials. Now some manufacturers of glass and junction box are in shortage, which led to an increase in the price of auxiliary materials. In addition, logistics also continues to affect the difficulty of terminal delivery. At present, the price is still brewing an upward trend. However, there are still not many project implementation and the average price remains stable this week. Under the high price, China’s demand in April is not clear. [photovoltaic glass] the mainstream price of 3.2mm coating was reported as 27.5 yuan / m2, with the average price rising by 5.8% compared with last week. The mainstream quotation of 2.0mm coating is 21.2 yuan / m2, and the average price is 6% higher than last week. Key recommendations focus on the following: ‘ Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) \ , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) .
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices affects the industry demand, and other unexpected explosion risks.
