Core conclusion
Industry changes this week
1) cement: the national cement market price this week was 506.7 yuan / ton, down 0.62% month on month and up 12.2% year on year. This week, the national cement storage capacity ratio was 64.03%, with a month on month increase of 1.36 PCT and a year-on-year increase of 16.58 PCT. The cement delivery rate was 61.1%, up 3.0 percentage points month on month and down 26.3pct year on year.
2) glass: the national average price of white glass this week was 204576 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. The glass inventory was 57.73 million heavy boxes, up 1.58% month on week and 95.85% year-on-year; The utilization rate of glass production capacity this weekend was 71.80%, up 0.85% year-on-year.
Investment strategy this week
Cement sector: Recently, the national Standing Committee proposed to make timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy. In the future, with the improvement of the epidemic, the steady growth policy is expected to increase and boost the demand for cement. At present, the current round of epidemic is still in multi-point outbreak, and the transmission range is gradually expanding. In addition, due to the influence of cloudy and rainy weather, the downstream construction slows down, which has a great impact on the shipment of enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) .
Real estate industry chain: according to CRIC statistics, in March, the total construction area of operational land supply in the national land market reached 140.78 million square meters, up 115% month on month, but down 29% year-on-year. In March, the transaction construction area of commercial land in the national land market reached 64.63 million square meters. Affected by the low base of last month, it increased by 55% month on month, but decreased by 60% year-on-year. On the whole, although the data of land supply and land acquisition fell sharply year-on-year, it improved significantly month on month. The real estate industry gradually warmed up under the policy of Panasonic, which is expected to stimulate the demand of the industrial chain in the future. Recently, affected by the epidemic situation in various regions, the completion and construction of real estate have been impacted, and the downstream home decoration has also been delayed one after another, which has a great impact on the overall demand of the industrial chain. We suggest that we should focus on the attention of ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) etc.
Glass fiber: this week, the average price of alkali free glass fiber yarn was 6863 yuan / ton, down 19.44 yuan / ton month on month, and the average price of medium alkali glass fiber yarn was 5850 yuan / ton, flat month on month; The average price of winding direct yarn was 6267 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 8875 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton month on month. By the end of March, the industrial inventory was 290300 tons, up 93000 tons year-on-year and 47000 tons month on month.
Glass: China’s float glass market rose and fell this week, with little change in the overall price, and the transaction is still flexible. The downstream replenishment in some regions has temporarily come to an end, and the inventory in most regions has increased during the week. Recently, uncertain factors in the market have heated up, shipments in some regions are limited, and the market is too wait-and-see. The demand is not improved enough, the overall market expectation is still weak, and the short-term adjustment space is temporarily limited under the thin profit. Pay attention to the later logistics and transaction changes. Pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) etc.
Risk warning: the completion is not as expected, the real estate is falling faster than expected, and the industry coordination is broken.
