Talk every Monday: the car market is depressed and waiting for the epidemic to disperse
From January to February 2022, the overall profit performance of the automotive industry was poor, with revenue increasing by 6%, cost increasing by 8%, and overall profit decreasing by 10% year-on-year. Due to the rapid rise of upstream costs, the automobile sales profit margin of 5.4% is at a low level, and the industry is under great pressure.
On the other hand, the epidemic since March has also made the automotive industry worse. According to the calculation of China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 2.249 million in March 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; From January to March 2022, the cumulative year-on-year growth was 0.5%. In March 2022, the inventory early warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 63.6%, up 8.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the overall market was in a depressed range.
The epidemic will directly affect the production capacity and consumption of new cars in the short term and the supply chain coordination in the medium term. If it continues in the long term, the foundation of users' consumption power will be affected. At present, the epidemic situation is the most serious in Jilin and Shanghai. According to the data of 2021, the cumulative output of Jilin and Shanghai accounts for 19.8% of the country. More than 104 factories in Changchun, including Tesla group, etc., have been shut down.
The automobile industry chain is long and complex, logistics resources are in short supply, local epidemic prevention policies lead to traffic difficulties, and the restriction of upstream supply chain shortage has an impact on the stability of the whole automobile industry chain. If strong measures such as isolation and control can quickly curb the development of the epidemic, the automobile industry will return to normal in May. At present, the task of ensuring supply and price stability in the industry is very arduous. Automobile enterprises should pay high attention to the management of the supply chain and further stabilize the supply chain under the superposition of epidemic situation and various uncertain factors, especially for some core components. .
Market review:
As of the closing on April 8, the auto sector was - 2.6%, and the CSI 300 index was - 1.1%. The decline of the auto sector was 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the CSI 300 index. In terms of sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 22nd among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, with poor performance. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been - 23.1%, ranking 29th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
Performance of weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: most sectors fell, with electric passenger vehicles (3.4%) being the only rising sector, with automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 6.4%), body accessories and accessories (- 5.9%) and other auto parts (- 5%) leading the decline.
Up and down performance of sub sectors since the beginning of the year: all sectors have fallen to varying degrees, with automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 34.5%), commercial trucks (- 28.9%), tire hubs (- 27.7%) and comprehensive passenger vehicles (- 27.5%) leading the decline.
Top five gainers and Losers: Harbin Viti Electronics Corp(603023) , Qingdao Hi-Tech Moulds & Plastics Technology Co.Ltd(301022) , neutag, Jiangsu Olive Sensors High-Tech Co.Ltd(300507) , Huaiji Dengyun Auto-Parts (Holding) Co.Ltd(002715) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , SST Jiatong, Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited(002488) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc. High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , etc; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and sales fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
