This week’s Chemical Market Overview
From the perspective of one year, this year may still be a chaotic market, but from the perspective of quarter, it may be a better investment time point this year. Although some factors will continue to disturb the market, such as the progress of the Fed’s interest rate hike and the changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine, we can see that its impact on the market is weakening; In addition, a large part of bad news has been reflected in the stock price, and some main contradictions have a marginal improvement trend. Looking back, we can be more optimistic. In terms of investment strategy in the chemical sector, first, the main line of inflation, which is likely to be the main line running through this year. It is suggested to focus on chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Second, the main line of steady growth. Especially in the context of the epidemic, the market’s expectation of steady growth will be stronger, and the probability of subsequent policies continuing to catalyze this logic is also increasing. It is optimistic about soda ash and PVC. Third, the main line of defense. It is suggested to pay attention to the white horse of chemical industry and fourth, the growth direction, We believe that the valuation compression of growth stocks is coming to an end, and it is suggested to focus on this direction.
Portfolio recommendation
\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 208 Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486)
Major events of this week
Six departments, including the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission, issued guidance on promoting high-quality development of the petrochemical and chemical industry during the 14th five year plan on April 7. It is proposed to strengthen classified measures and scientifically regulate the industrial scale. Orderly promote the “oil reduction and chemical increase” of refining and chemical projects, and extend the petrochemical industry chain. Enhance the supply capacity of high-end polymers, special chemicals and other products. Strictly control the new production capacity of oil refining, ammonium phosphate, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus and other industries, prohibit the new (poly) vinyl chloride production capacity using mercury, and accelerate the exit of inefficient and backward production capacity. Promote the high-end, diversified and low-carbon development of coal chemical industry, and steadily and orderly develop modern coal chemical industry in accordance with the requirements of ecological priority, water based production, total amount control and cluster development. The opinions once again reiterated the new control and optimization of industry structure for special high energy consuming industries. After the implementation and construction of the 13th five year plan indicators in the early stage, China will gradually enter the year of full implementation of relevant policies in the 14th five year plan. The state of limited new production capacity and optimized industry structure is expected to be gradually reflected, driving the structural optimization of some high energy consuming industries and the stable operation of the industry.
The EU will implement the fifth set of sanctions against Russia, including the coal embargo and the prohibition of Russian ships from entering the port. With the gradual deepening of EU and US sanctions against Russia, the impact of the sanctions has shown an amplified chain reaction. In addition to Russia’s relatively high proportion in the production and export of precious metals, fertilizers and other products, which affects the global supply, Russia is a major energy supplier. The oil and natural gas of the EU, including the coal of the sanctions, are serious. Since then, Russia has a shortage of energy supply, The abnormal surge in prices has begun to expand to the field of downstream products, not only because of the increase in costs, but also because of the supply imbalance caused by the shortage of raw materials and energy. In addition to the impact of this sanctions on special areas, the impact on sentiment is expected to gradually weaken. In recent weeks, China’s coal price has fallen after rising. Last week, the price basically remained stable, and the industry was affected by sentiment. However, the whole country still carried out the supply guarantee policy, and the overall short-term impact on China’s coal price is relatively limited. China guaranteed the coal supply, coal chemical products operated stably temporarily, and the prices of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer products in chemical fertilizers remained relatively stable, Chinese prices are still significantly lower than overseas prices.
Risk tips
The epidemic affects demand outside China, crude oil prices fluctuate violently, and changes in international policies affect industrial layout.
