Focus this week: Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Warom Technology Incorporated Company(603855)
Core view of this week: the short-term impact of recent macro environment fluctuations has not been eliminated, and the overall judgment still continues the fluctuation trend. At present, the price rise of upstream resource products and the steady growth of the government are still two relatively determined main lines, and the relevant equipment sectors such as coal machinery, oil service, nuclear power and hydrogen energy are expected to benefit. Theme of this week: sea breeze carbon fiber
In 2021, about 3.5gW of carbon fiber blades will be used in 14 sea breeze projects. ① According to the statistics of public data (daily wind power, Polaris wind power network, mining and bidding network, etc.), a total of 14 offshore wind power projects used carbon fiber blades in 2021, with a total installed capacity of 3467mw, accounting for 20.5% of 16.9gw of offshore wind grid connection in 2021. The projects are distributed in Zhejiang, Shandong, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Fujian. From the perspective of wind farms, the bases using carbon fiber blades are mainly Yuhuan phase I project, Rudong H2 / H3 / H8 / H13 / H15 base in Jiangsu, No. 3 & 4 base in the south of Shandong Peninsula, Dalian Zhuanghe base, Yangjiang Qingzhou phase III, Yangjiang Shaba phase IV, Changle offshore base a and C. ② In 2021, the bid winners of the carbon fiber blade Haifeng project are mainly Yuanjing energy (Shandong peninsula south 3 & 4 project, total 602mw), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) (Dalian Zhuanghe project, Yangjiang Qingzhou phase III project, total 348mw), China haizhuang (Rudong project, total 1300mw) and Dongfang wind power (Yangjiang Shaba phase IV, Changle offshore project, total 600MW). From the perspective of unit price, among the sample projects, the lowest unit price is Dalian Zhuanghe project (5962 yuan / kW), the highest is Yangjiang Qingzhou No. 3 project (7501 yuan / kW), with an average of 6898 yuan / kW (10 samples), while the average unit investment of Haifeng project with non carbon fiber blades connected to the grid in 2021 is 7052 yuan / kW (18 samples). The average unit price of carbon fiber Haifeng project is 2.2% lower than that of non carbon fiber Haifeng project. From the perspective of single unit scale, the single unit scale of carbon fiber blade sea wind project ranges from 5.0mw to 10.0mw, with a weighted average of 6.2mw, while the average installed scale of non carbon fiber sea wind units is 5.3mw. ③ In 2021, carbon fiber fans will be put into operation in Mingyang, haizhuang, Dongdian and Yuanjing. The main models of carbon fiber sea breeze project put into operation in 2021 are listed in the following table 6, of which the most used is h171-5mw of China Sea equipment, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) has 2 models, and its myse8 Model 3-180 is an offshore anti typhoon unit. It is customized and developed for areas with high wind speed and typhoon risk such as Fujian and Taiwan Strait. The en-161 / 5.2mw production base of vision energy is in Haiyang, Shandong Province. It is the first mass-produced offshore intelligent fan in Shandong Province. Dongfang wind power has launched two carbon fiber models: dew-d7000186 and 10mw-b900a. Among them, dew-d7000186 is jointly developed by Dongfang wind power and Huaneng Group, Domestic carbon fiber materials are used on 91m wind turbine blades for the first time.
It is expected that the consumption of carbon fiber in sea breeze will accelerate from 2023. Judging from the published single unit scale requirements of affordable offshore wind power projects, the three offshore wind projects that won the bid in the second half of 2021 reached 8mW, of which two 16.6mw units are planned to be installed in Qingzhou Sihai wind project, which is expected to prepare for the batch shipment of subsequent 16.6mw units; Among several sea breeze projects won the bid since 2022, the single unit scale of Qingzhou I & Qingzhou II projects has reached 11mw, and Fujian Pingtan offshore project also requires ≥ 8mW. The model of Bozhong sea breeze field a project won the bid by haizhuang recently is set at 8.38mw; The model of Shantou lemen (II) project bidding this year is required to be ≥ 11mw, and the large-scale trend of sea breeze is progressing rapidly. Referring to the Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) 11mw model and the 10MW model of China offshore, the impeller diameter exceeds 230 meters and 210 meters, and the corresponding single blade length reaches 105115 meters. Under the condition of changing the length, the use of carbon fiber becomes inevitable. From the perspective of the expected grid connection time, the unit scale of the affordable Haifeng project expected to be connected to the grid in 2022 is still around 6.45mw-8.38mw. The necessity of the application of carbon fiber blades is not very strong, but the inevitability of the use of carbon fiber has increased since 2023.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with high industrial structure of Haifeng spare parts, such as Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , flange and tower.
Risk tips: 1) the bidding is lower than expected; 2) Expected price rise of raw materials.
