Photovoltaic glass prices pushed up and continued to pay attention to the rhythm of capacity release
Last week, the price of 2mm photovoltaic coated glass was 21.15 yuan / m2, up 5.75% month on month; The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass was 27.5 yuan / m2, with a month on month increase of 5.77%. Manufacturers' inventory days were 19.37 days, an increase of 1.38% over last week. Recently, the transportation in some regions is not smooth, the price of heavy alkali has increased slightly, and the fuel cost has little change. Silicon materials continued to rise, the price remained high, the operation of component manufacturers was basically stable, terminal power stations successively accepted new prices, and the trading volume increased. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 47810 tons, unchanged month on month. The production plan of photovoltaic glass in 22 years is large, but the promotion is general. Under the current price, we believe that the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. The recent events in the photovoltaic industry are mainly catalyzed by the increase in the installed capacity expectation of the European Photovoltaic Association. The new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the EU will be 420gw in 2030. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous increase in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
Float glass inventory is high and unit profit is at the bottom of short-term
The average price of float glass in China this week decreased by 0.62% month on month compared with last week. On the whole, the new orders are still insufficient, and the processing plants just need to replenish. The manufacturer's inventory was 57.13 million weight boxes, an increase of 890000 weight boxes compared with last week, and the inventory changed from decline to increase. The capacity in the week was 172025t / D, a month on month decrease of 0.29%. This week, the cost side fuel price has little change, and soda ash has increased; The price of the original film is mixed. Although individual factories in some regions have plans to raise the price, the overall price is still under pressure; The overall profit of float glass showed a weak trend. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, and the demand for Q2 is expected to reach a small peak.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to recommend [Xinyi solar energy] (joint coverage with Dianxin), [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (joint coverage with Dianxin), and from the perspective of dilemma reversal [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ]. The stock price of the float leader has been significantly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business under the equilibrium state and the additional growth brought by the new business, we believe that the current float leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ], [Xinyi Glass] (both have a certain capacity of building energy-saving glass); From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (jointly covered with the electronic group). Under the logic of domestic substitution of medicinal glass, recommend the head enterprise of CBSI medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (jointly covered with the medical group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
