Price: steel price differentiation this week. This week (April 6-8, the same below), the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 5090 yuan / ton, up + 1.4% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 5250 yuan / ton, up – 0.6% from last week. The price of raw materials rose this week, and the price of port iron ore rose this week compared with last week; Coke prices were flat compared with last week; The price of scrap steel increased compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, we calculated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week was – 107 yuan / ton, – 147 yuan / ton and – 140 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel rebounded slightly this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the weekly ratio of rebar output increased, the weekly ratio of warehouses of the five major steel plants increased, and the weekly ratio of social warehouses increased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.88 million tons, up 249700 tons week on week, including 50400 tons of construction steel, 199300 tons of sector and 63900 tons of rebar. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 37800 tons to 1 Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) 0 tons, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 6.5137 million tons and 221900 tons, including 32400 tons of rebar social warehouse and 103600 tons of factory warehouse. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2.9616 million tons, with a decrease of 146400 tons on a week-on-week basis.
Investment suggestion: the relaxation policy of real estate sales in some cities has been issued, and the investment opportunities in the steel sector are expected to continue with the superposition of the policy of stable growth of infrastructure. Recently, the relaxation policies for real estate sales in some cities have been issued one after another, superimposed with the policy of stable growth of infrastructure, and the expectation of steel demand in the future is optimistic. In the short term, steel consumption is still subject to the epidemic. The apparent consumption of rebar this week was 2.9616 million tons, down 146400 tons on a week-on-week basis. In terms of inventory, the steel social warehouse and factory warehouse all rebounded this week. On the whole, even if the current steel fundamentals are weak, real estate sales are relaxed and expected to rise, the policy of stable growth of infrastructure is put into force, the expectation of steel consumption is optimistic, and the investment opportunities in the steel sector are expected to continue. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Subject matter of pipes: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) ; 6) High dividend targets: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
