Event description
On April 7, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other six departments jointly issued the guidance on promoting the high-quality development of petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan. This guidance is further implemented and refined on the basis of the 14th five year plan for the development of raw material industry. The opinions emphasizes to continue to deepen the supply side structural reform, coordinate development and safety, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and vigorously develop new chemical materials and fine chemicals; Give play to the advantages of carbon fixation and carbon consumption, and jointly promote carbon emission reduction in the industrial chain; Orderly promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of the petrochemical and chemical industry, and improve the energy efficiency level of the industry. At the same time, the opinions proposed to formulate a catalogue of high-carbon products and steadily regulate the export of some high-carbon products; Improve the utilization level of medium and low-grade heat energy, promote the electrification of energy consumption facilities, reasonably guide the fuel to “replace coal with gas”, and moderately increase the proportion of hydrogen rich raw materials. In addition, the opinions encourage petrochemical and chemical enterprises to develop and utilize “green hydrogen” in a reasonable and orderly manner according to local conditions, promote the coupling demonstration of refining and chemical industry, coal chemical industry, green electricity, green hydrogen and other industries, and carry out large-scale carbon dioxide capture, storage, oil displacement and chemical production demonstration by taking advantage of the characteristics of high purity and low capture cost of carbon dioxide discharged by refining and chemical and coal chemical plants; Accelerate the development and application of energy-saving and carbon reduction technologies such as direct cracking of crude oil to ethylene, one-step olefin production from syngas, and intelligent continuous micro reaction to prepare chemical products.
According to the opinions, by 2025, the petrochemical industry will basically form a high-quality development pattern with strong independent innovation ability, reasonable structural layout, green, safe and low-carbon, greatly improve the guarantee ability of high-end products, significantly enhance the core competitiveness, and take solid steps towards high-level self-reliance and self-improvement.
Deepen supply side reform and control the total amount of high energy consumption industries
The implementation of the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan will help to improve the production concentration of bulk chemicals, and the target capacity utilization rate will reach more than 80%. At present, there are many bulk chemicals with low capacity utilization to a certain extent. According to zhuochuang information, in 2020, the capacity utilization rates of methanol / propylene oxide / ethylene glycol / styrene /px/ acetic acid will be 55%/89%/56%/83%/83%/85% respectively. By 2025, there will be many new projects on the supply side. The proposed goal of capacity utilization rate will promote the continuous deepening of supply side reform of bulk chemicals, which is generally conducive to the leading enterprises with the advantages of integrated circular economy in each subdivision track to continue to increase the market share and eliminate the low-quality and inefficient capacity in the industry.
Strictly control the new capacity of oil refining, ammonium phosphate (monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate), calcium carbide and yellow phosphorus high energy consuming industries. The supply side of the industry will further deepen the reform, accelerate the concentration trend of relevant products to leading enterprises, and the medium and long-term price center is expected to rise. In particular, it is proposed that the traditional calcium carbide PVC production uses mercuric chloride catalyst, which has potential mercury pollution. Therefore, the upgrading requires the implementation of green processes, such as improving the mercury free of calcium carbide (low mercury or even mercury free catalyst replaces high mercury catalyst) and encouraging cleaner ethylene production.
Improve the ethylene equivalent self-sufficiency rate and encourage the extension of “oil head to tail” to key new materials
The opinions put forward that the guarantee level of ethylene equivalent will be greatly improved, the oil will be reduced and the chemical industry will be increased, and the guarantee level of new chemical materials will reach more than 75%. In 2021, the ethylene equivalent self-sufficiency rate was about 64%, and there was still a gap of 15 million tons. The formulation of improving the ethylene equivalent guarantee level made it clear that the approval of large ethylene units competitive in environmental protection, energy consumption, cost, circular economy and integration could be promoted in succession. Combined with the relevant statements of strictly controlling oil refining capacity, reducing oil and increasing chemical content and improving raw material lightness, We expect that in the future, the refining and chemical industry is expected to improve the ethylene equivalent self-sufficiency rate by replacing the reduction of refining and chemical (large refining and chemical integration replaces the small backward refining capacity), further reducing the oil-chemical ratio of existing refining and chemical units, and increasing the proportion of light chemical raw material units (propane butane dehydrogenation, ethane cracking, propylene butane cracking, etc.). In addition, the guidance further encourages enterprises to extend from the olefin chain to the varieties of back-end chemical new materials, and improve the varieties of high value-added new materials such as high-end polymers.
Modern coal chemical industry should give priority to ecology, determine production by water, control total amount and gather development
After the 2030 carbon peak scheme proposed that modern coal chemical industry replace traditional coal chemical industry, the opinions proposed that ecology should be given priority and water should be used to determine production. Due to the regional nature of coal resource endowment, it is mostly in the northwest region with relatively tight water sources. In the future, in addition to considering energy consumption indicators and carbon emission indicators, it is also necessary to take into account water resource capacity control indicators to resolve the contradiction between resources and environment. The total amount control requires to limit the disorderly expansion of coal chemical industry, and the centralized development requires the project to be located in the national modern coal chemical industry base.
Encourage the development of Biochemistry and new materials
The opinions encourages the development of enzymes for biomass utilization and bio refining based on biological resources, and the promotion of new biological strains; Strengthen the connection between bio based bulk chemicals and the existing industrial chain of chemical materials, develop eco-friendly bio based materials, and realize partial substitution of traditional petroleum based products.
In terms of new materials, encourage R & D to invest in innovative fields such as high-end polyolefins, high-performance engineering plastics, high-performance membrane materials, biomedical materials and CCUs. Encourage the increase of varieties and specifications of organic fluorosilicone, polyurethane, polyamide and other materials, and accelerate the development of high-end polyolefins, electronic chemicals, industrial special gases, high-performance rubber and plastic materials, high-performance fibers, bio based materials, special lubricants and other products. Increase the proportion of green products in chemical fertilizer, tire, coating, dye, adhesive and other industries.
Investment advice
The opinions generally emphasize the quality improvement and total amount control on the supply side of petrochemical industry, which is conducive to the leading enterprises with the advantages of integrated circular economy in each sub circuit to continue to increase the market share, and encourage the extension of new material projects to the downstream.
In the field of Biochemistry, it is suggested to pay attention to Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) .
In the field of high energy consumption, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises of ammonium phosphate Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) .
In the field of oil refining and refining, it is suggested to pay attention to improving the guarantee level of ethylene equivalent, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) and leading satellite chemistry of light industry with follow-up project planning and back-end layout of new materials;
In the field of coal chemical industry, it is suggested to pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , which has significant advantages in energy consumption, cost, water rights and green power layout.
Risk tips
The construction progress of capacity under construction is less than expected, the R & D of emerging technologies is blocked, the risk of repeated epidemics in some parts of the world, global intellectual property disputes, sharp fluctuations in chemical prices, Global trade disputes, and the risk of sharp economic decline.
