Key investment points:
Market review: this week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological sector index fell by 3.3%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.3%. The pharmaceutical sector ranked 23rd in the Shenwan industry classification. Stocks with more gains in the early stage showed a correction. The pharmaceutical segment generally fell this week, including biological products, with a small decline of 1.1%; The top five increases in medicine were Dali Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603963) (+ 33.1%), Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) (+ 23.9%), Xin Jiang Ready Health Industry Co.Ltd(600090) (+ 16.1%), Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) (+ 14.9%), Shan Dong Kexing Bioproducts Co.Ltd(688136) (+ 13.8%).
Industry policies and trends: 1) the price of single test items for nucleic acid testing in Beijing has dropped to 24.9 yuan since April 9, the lowest in China; 2) Publicity of the proposed winning / alternative results of the centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicines by the alliance of six provinces in Guangdong: 361 varieties of 174 enterprises are proposed to be selected, with a bid winning rate of 54.4%, the overall average decline of the winning varieties is 56%, and 36 exclusive varieties, P1 is proposed to be selected with an average decline of 1.5%, P2 is proposed to be selected with an average decline of 18%, and the results are better than expected; 3) Expand the pharmaceutical industry: the phase III clinical results of covid-19 specific drug prochloramide were published, and the experimental data showed that the efficacy was good; 4) Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co.Ltd(601607) : fixed increase of nearly 14 billion yuan and introduction of Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) strategic investment. 5) Cinda biology: cindilimab injection and ibi310 are proposed to be included in the breakthrough treatment varieties, and dabetan has been approved by the State Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of cholangiocarcinoma.
The small topic of the week: the mRNA covid-19 vaccine and related industry chains: in recent days, the mRNA covid-19 vaccine and the related industry chain: the mrmrna covid-19 vaccine that’s the mRNA covid-19 vaccine that’s the mRNA covid-19 vaccine that’s in the way of the stone medicine group and the industry chain: Recently, the mRNA covid-19 vaccine that’s in the stone medicine group and the industry chain: in recent days, the mRNA covid-19 vaccine and the related industry chain: in the past, the mRNA covidas and the related industry chain: in the stone medicine group and the group of stone medicine group and the groupand the Beijing Abt Networks Co.Ltd(688168) 818185 Sinopharm and others are carrying out preclinical research and development of mRNA covid-19 vaccine. The domestic mRNA vaccine is in full bloom as a whole. We judge that the development of mRNA covid-19 vaccine will usher in a wave in the future. But objectively speaking, the final effect of mRNA vaccine is affected by many aspects: sequence selection and modification, construction of delivery system, encapsulation and purification process, etc. there are also lessons from the past (curevac). Therefore, the final approval depends on clinical data. What is certain is that mRNA technology is essentially a preparation technology, and its principle has been studied thoroughly in recent decades. With the deepening of process cognition, we believe that China will have domestic mRNA vaccine approved for marketing sooner or later. Based on this, we are optimistic about two main lines: 1) mRNA vaccine main line: Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) biology, stone Pharmaceutical Group and other listed companies; 2) MRNA industry chain: no matter which company is approved to be listed first, the industry chain will benefit. It is optimistic about: a) plasmids: Kingsley, boten biology, and metabiology; b) Enzymes: inshore protein, Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Yisheng biology, Hanhai new enzyme, etc; c) Nucleotide substrate: Shanghai Zhaowei et al; d) LNP: Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) etc.
Investment strategy: this week, the Shenwan pharmaceutical index fell by 3.3%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.3%. The pharmaceutical sector ranked the ninth lowest in the Shenwan industry classification, and the subdivided sectors generally fell this week. Under the diversion of steady growth sectors such as real estate and infrastructure, the covid-19 special drug theme index fell by 6%, while individual stocks with more gains in the early stage showed a correction. At present, the situation of covid-19 epidemic prevention and control in China is grim. This week, the newly confirmed cases of covid-19 in Shanghai reached a new high and the decline of exclusive varieties of Chinese patent medicine in Guangdong was better than expected. We believe that after this callback, the epidemic prevention and control related sectors and traditional Chinese medicine sectors are expected to become hot investment sectors of medicine again. The key points are as follows: 1) mRNA covid-19 vaccine and industrial chain opportunities: 1 Enterprises of mRNA covid-19 vaccine: newly approved clinical Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) and stone Pharmaceutical Group, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) in phase III clinical, etc; 2. MRNA vaccine industry chain: plasmids (Kingsley biology, boten biology, and metabiology); Enzymes ( Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) etc.); LNP（ Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) ）。 2) Covid-19 oral drug industry chain deserves continuous attention: 1. Pfizer covid-19 small molecule industry chain: MPP authorized enterprises: Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) etc; Cdmo: Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , etc; Intermediates: Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) etc; 2. Domestic covid-19 small molecule and industrial chain: azvudine (real biology is expected to uncover the blindness of phase III data in April) supply chain focuses on: Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) and Xinxiang Tuoxin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(301089) etc; Vv116 (the third phase of global multi center has been launched, and the production is expected to be reported within 22 years) focuses on: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ; Other 3CL target enterprises are pre clinical (among which Xiansheng pharmaceutical has just been approved for clinical). 3) Continue to be optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine sector: under the guidance of the 14th five year plan of traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine will continue to be catalyzed by favorable policies, and investment opportunities are expected to run through 2022. The decline of the latest exclusive varieties of Guangdong proprietary Chinese medicine is limited, which is better than expected. Focus on: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Chinese traditional medicine, Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , etc. In addition, in April, we entered the intensive disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report. According to the first quarter performance outlook released by us: focus on biological products: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) and Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) ; Key focus of devices: Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) etc; CXO focuses on: Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Baicheng medicine, etc; Drug concerns: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) , Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300705) and Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) etc.
Portfolio this week: it is recommended to focus on Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) and Baicheng medicine.
April portfolio: it is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) .
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected; The performance of listed companies is less than expected; Market competition intensifies risks.
