Core view of this week: all localities continue to expand policy relaxation, more cities reduce the proportion of down payment and the supply of affordable rental housing, and the favorable objects of the policy are sinking to new citizens and young people. The transaction area of new houses continued to decline this week, and the year-on-year decline in first, second and third tier cities has expanded. The overall second-hand housing market has not improved significantly, and the trading volume of second-hand housing in the first, second and third tier cities has continued to decline. In terms of land, the supply and transaction area continued to decline this week. Affected by the decline of supply area, the supply-demand ratio decreased significantly, and the overall premium rate and sub urban energy level decreased significantly. The total amount of bonds issued this week decreased significantly, the repayment amount decreased slightly, the net financing amount changed from positive to negative, the number of trust issues decreased and the amount increased. On the whole, due to the impact of the epidemic, the warming trend this week is limited, and the performance in all aspects has not improved.
Key policy analysis: since April 2, cities have been relaxing the regulation and control policies of the real estate market, and the policy strength has been increasing. Following the release of purchase restrictions in Zhengzhou and Fuzhou and the release of sales restrictions in Harbin, the purchase restrictions in Qinhuangdao were cancelled recently, and the purchase restrictions and sales restrictions were cancelled in Quzhou, Zhejiang for the first time in China. The multi-directional policy in Lanzhou was relaxed. Besides reducing the down payment ratio of the first suite of provident fund loans, Anshun also reduced the ratio of the second suite and lifted the restriction on “raising and lending”. On the one hand, it shows that the strength of policy regulation is increasing, and the policy of substantially stimulating demand is increasing. On the other hand, the favorable policies are sinking to groups with slightly weak purchasing power, such as new citizens, and the threshold for house purchase is further reduced. The epidemic broke out in core cities, and the spillover effect has become more and more obvious, delaying the time for the repair and expected improvement of real estate demand. In addition, the delay in the recovery of the sales end further exacerbated the pressure on enterprises to repay their debts in the second quarter, and also affected the pace of construction in some cities. The goal of GDP growth of 5.5% in 2022 has been tested under the influence of the epidemic. It is urgent for local governments to continue to steadily introduce good real estate policies due to urban policies. In particular, second and third tier cities need to relax real estate regulation and control policies in multiple directions, and consider canceling purchase restrictions As a major breakthrough in this round of deregulation of the real estate market, restrictive measures such as sales restrictions support enterprise credit policies, help enterprises to bail out from multiple aspects, and ensure the stable growth of the real estate market and economy.
One week market review: this week (2022 / 4 / 4-2022 / 4 / 10), Shenwan real estate index rose 1.64%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.58pct, ranking fifth / 32 among various sectors, and Hang Seng real estate construction industry index rose 5.67%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.61pct. The top three real estate companies that rose this week were Lvjing China real estate (44.68%), Yuzhou group (36.73%) and Macrolink Culturaltainment Development Co.Ltd(000620) (33.23%). The top three real estate companies that fell this week were: Tianjin Hi-Tech Development Co.Ltd(600082) (- 25.69%), Yang Guang Co.Ltd(000608) (- 15.1%), Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) (- 14.35%). This week (2022 / 4 / 4-2022 / 4 / 10), Hang Seng property service and management sector rose 9.33%, outperforming Shanghai Composite Index by 10.27pct and Hang Seng China enterprise index by 9.95pct, ranking first in all sectors. The top three companies that rose this week were Baolong Commerce (27.27%), Country Garden Service (21.15%) and excellent business enterprise service (20.05%). The top three companies that fell this week were: first service Holdings (- 2.27%), Guorui real estate (- 0.89%) and poly property (- 0.7%).
Real estate market monitoring: new house transaction data from last Saturday to this Friday (2022 / 4 / 2-2022 / 4 / 8): the transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 1521700 square meters, with a month on month decrease of 39.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 65.9%. The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities was 1023900 square meters, down 33.7% month on month and 52% year-on-year. Last week (March 28, 2022-april 3, 2022), the land supply and construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 323884 million square meters, down 49.7% year-on-year and 30.79% month on month. The land transaction and construction area was 173634 million square meters, down 50.7% year-on-year and 9.69% month on month. The supply and demand ratio decreased to 1.87.
Financing of real estate enterprises: this week (2022 / 4 / 4-2022 / 4 / 10), the total amount of domestic new bonds issued by real estate enterprises was 1.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89% and a month on month decrease of 100667%. In terms of trust issuance, nine real estate trusts were issued this week, with an issuance scale of 630 million yuan, up 25% month on month. The average annual yield is 7.83% and the average term is 1.92 years.
Risk factors: policy risk: the progress of policy relaxation is less than expected. Market risk: the market recovery of the real estate industry is less than expected, and the epidemic control is less than expected.
