Main points:
Banking stocks: industry index continues to rise
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by 1.21%, 3.01% and 4.72% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking sixth, fifth and third among the 31 Shenwan industries.
On a weekly basis, the stock prices of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) rose by 5.37%, 4.94% and 4.13% respectively. Monthly, the stock prices of Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) rose by 8.97%, 8.43% and 7.95% respectively. Since the beginning of the beginning of the year since the beginning of the year since the beginning of the year to the beginning of the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year to date, the Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) and China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) achieved an increase of more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: Net withdrawal of money
The total amount of money put in this week was 40 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 610 billion yuan, and the net return of money was 570 billion yuan, a decrease of 990 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has realized a net return of 150 billion yuan.
On April 8, dr001 was 1.79%, an increase of 15bps compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 2.01%, a decrease of 15bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 1.82%, up 17bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.16%, down 5bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the issuing interest rate of 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased. On April 8, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.31%, 2.42% and 2.57% respectively, with changes of + 3bps, – 3bps and – 2bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread between China and the United States has expanded
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds decreased, and the term interest spread expanded. On April 8, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.07% and 2.75% respectively, with changes of – 4bps and – 2bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.69%, up 2bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term spread widened. On April 8, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.81% and 2.72% respectively, with changes of + 9bps and + 33bps respectively compared with last Friday. The margin increased by 2491.bps compared with last Friday.
Us liquidity index: start of interest rate hike cycle
(1) on April 7, the US secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.3%, unchanged from last Friday. (2) On April 6, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.48%, an increase of 8bps compared with last Friday. (3) On April 7, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.16%, up 25bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
The bank’s annual report season is coming to an end, and the overall performance of bank stocks is strong. The NPC mentioned “strengthening the implementation of prudent monetary policy and maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity” and “studying and adopting financial measures to support consumption and effective investment and improve the level of financial services for new citizens”. First, it raised the expectation of market easing; Second, the growth of direct loans and services to the public is conducive to the new level of support.
Our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommendation order unchanged, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
