Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, the CSI 300 index fell 1.06%, the SW nonferrous index fell 1.05%, Comex gold rose 1.14% and silver rose 0.61%. LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin prices of major industrial metals changed by – 1.98%, 0.73%, – 0.76%, – 0.04%, – 0.03% and – 1.09% month on month respectively; Metal inventory LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by – 3.18%, 10.43%, – 10.20%, 1.55%, 1.80% and 41.00% month on month respectively.
Industrial metals: under the epidemic, China’s supply and demand are limited, but the low inventory and high global energy prices support the price, and the price of industrial metals runs at a high level. Core view: epidemic control affects logistics, supply and demand are limited, and high energy prices support the high price of industrial metals under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In terms of copper, under the background of high global inflation, copper prices have been supported; Under the epidemic situation, it is difficult for Shanghai stock to leave the warehouse and the supply is limited; On the demand side, the production reduction and shutdown in the lower reaches of Jiangsu and Zhejiang dragged down the market consumption, and the low inventory supported the copper price under the weakness of supply and demand. In terms of aluminum, on the supply side, the epidemic interfered with the circulation of aluminum ingots in China, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum accumulated 25000 tons in a week; On the demand side, enterprises have better orders on hand as a whole, but with the improvement of the epidemic in mainstream consumer places, China’s aluminum consumption may recover rapidly, and aluminum may enter a rapid destocking cycle. Focusing on the focus of the following focus: followingthe Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry.
Energy metals: Byd Company Limited(002594) guanxuan has stepped into full electrification, the sales volume of Q1 electric vehicles has not been significantly affected by the price rise, and the price of energy metals fluctuates at a high level. Core view: the supply of lithium carbonate increased, the supply of electric cobalt was low, the orders of downstream cathode materials decreased, 3C electronics entered the off-season, the demand weakened, and the price of lithium and cobalt remained high and volatile. In terms of incremental capacity and maintenance of lithium lake, the superposition of incremental capacity and maintenance of lithium lake is completed. On the demand side, the demand for the four cathode materials fell due to the reduction of orders; Traders’ selling increased, downstream procurement waited and saw, and prices fell slightly. In terms of cobalt, the current epidemic situation, logistics congestion in many places, weakening downstream procurement, downward price of electrolytic cobalt and high overseas price support the stable price of intermediate products. In terms of nickel, lunni has not been separated from the capital game, and its liquidity has not been improved. The epidemic in China affects transportation, the supply continues to be tight, and the nickel price support is strong. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and inflation drives gold prices upward. Core view: the situation in Russia and Ukraine may intensify, global inflation remains high, and gold may still have the upper mobility under the risk aversion. Although the Federal Reserve called for a 50bp interest rate increase at each interest rate meeting during the year, Russia admitted that the “tragedy” of military casualties and serious economic impact are brewing a major offensive, and concerns about rising prices and war enhance the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool and a safe haven asset. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: demand is less than expected, supply is released more than expected, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk.
