Key investment points
Industry perspective
The epidemic situation may aggravate the short-term shock of the sector, and the value of the bottom range is highlighted; The industry chain is seriously divided and selected; Bargain hunting layout of high-quality assets, it is recommended to focus on the layout opportunities of lithium batteries with good expected margin.
1) the epidemic situation may aggravate the short-term shock of the sector, and it is recommended to bargain hunting and layout high-quality assets. The recent outbreak of the epidemic in many places in China, such as Shanghai, Jiangsu and Jilin, has a great impact on the automobile industry and many industrial chain enterprises have been affected, resulting in the phased impact on the production scheduling and shipment volume of enterprises in some epidemic areas, which aggravates the negative expectations for the new energy automobile industry. We believe that the epidemic may curb short-term demand, but the subsequent easing of the epidemic will promote demand recovery, increase demand fluctuations during the year, and then increase sector shocks. On the whole, based on the high probability of “rush loading” of China’s subsidy clearing at the end of the year, we maintain the global sales forecast of 9.5 ~ 10 million in 2022, the demand of the industrial chain will continue to increase, and the performance cashability of the leading enterprises is still strong. It is suggested to layout high-quality assets on a bargain hunting basis.
2) it is suggested to focus on the layout opportunities of lithium batteries with good expected margin. In terms of product price, lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, cathode and other subdivided fields show a high stabilization or downward trend. The cost of lithium battery may decline marginally, superimposed with the price rise of new energy vehicle terminals, which is conducive to alleviating or eliminating the negative expectations of the market that the price or cost transmission is not smooth. Based on this, lithium power battery enterprises, which were previously suppressed by the rise of raw material costs and their performance and valuation, will usher in better marginal expectations. Investors are strongly recommended to focus on lithium battery layout opportunities. In terms of certainty, we recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
3) industrial chain differentiation: the best is the best: profit distribution will be the key point of the industrial chain game in 2022, which is reflected in the game in the secondary market. Unit profit, market share and technological marginal change are the key factors to evaluate enterprises α The core element of growth attribute. In general, we continue to be optimistic about high nickel ternary, diaphragm, power battery and some of them α High quality leading assets.
Subject recommendation
Under the general trend of global “double carbon” strong driving and supply resonance driving the continuous growth of demand, the outlook of the industrial chain will continue to rise. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities in the direction of energy storage and fuel cell for industrial extension.
Suggested layout main line: 1) core assets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , etc. 2) Elastic varieties: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) etc. 3) Other suggestions are to focus on the leading points of the various sub industry segments: the 30 Huangshan Novel Co.Ltd(002014) \ , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc. 4) Key recommendations in the field of energy storage: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) . Suggestions for attention in the field of fuel cells: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) -u, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , etc. Highlights of this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) .
Market resumption
1) industry level: this week, the fuel cell index, new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, charging pile index and energy storage index fell by 2%, 4%, 5%, 4% and 4% respectively. 2) Corporate level: reference to the lithium battery index. Corporate level: corporate level: corporate level: reference to the lithium battery index. The reference to the lithium battery index. The top five of this week’s rise is the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) 8388 (- 9%), Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) (- 9%), Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) (- 8%).
Industry dynamics
1) price of industrial chain: the price of lithium carbonate this week is 502000 yuan / ton, down 0.2% compared with last week, and the price of lithium hydroxide is 492000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; Nickel price is 34100 USD / ton, up 4%, cobalt price is 562000 yuan / ton, down 0.4%, nickel price tends to be rational; In terms of cathode materials, NCM 111 / 523 / 622, the precursor of RMB, offered RMB 16.3/16.2164000/t respectively on Wednesday, the same as last week, and ncm622, the precursor of RMB, offered RMB 395000 / T, the same as last week; In terms of electrolyte, lithium fluorophosphate quoted 445000 yuan / ton on Saturday, down 5.3%, and electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) quoted 98000 yuan / ton, down 2.5%; Diaphragm, 9 μ Wet base film / 14 μ The price of dry base membrane is 1.42/0.95 yuan / m2 respectively, which remains stable; In terms of negative electrode materials, the prices of middle-end and high-end natural graphite were RMB 51000 / 61000 / ton respectively, the same as last week. 2) Key industry trends: several auto companies released sales data of new energy vehicles in March, maintaining a year-on-year high growth trend.
Company dynamics
1) commencement of Tesla Texas plant; 2) Lingke and Eyan issued price increase announcements, and the price rise tide of new energy vehicles continues; 3) Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022 and Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) released the annual report of 2021.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; The performance of the recommended company is less than expected; Systemic risk.
