Events
According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in March 2022 sold 37085 excavators in total. Among them, 26556 units are sold in China and 10529 units are exported.
Key investment points
In March 2022, the sales volume of excavator decreased by 53%; The decline was nearly 40pct larger than that in February, and the export exceeded 10000 for the first time. In March 2022, the sales volume of excavators was 37085, a year-on-year decrease of 53%, and the decline was nearly 40pct larger than that in February. Among them, 26556 units were sold in China, with a year-on-year decrease of 64%, and the decline was 33 PCT higher than that in February; 10529 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 74%. The export exceeded 10000 units in a single month for the first time.
From January to March 2022, the sales volume of excavators was 77175 units, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, of which 51886 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 54%; The export sales volume was 25289 units, with a year-on-year increase of 89%.
It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators will be 309000 units in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Among them, China sold 206000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, and exported 103000 units, a year-on-year increase of 50%.
In February 2022, the sales volume of small excavation increased by 8.4pct, the recovery of small excavation was good, followed by large excavation, and the recovery of medium excavation was slow. In March 2022, the sales volume of small excavation in the Chinese market was 17864 units, a year-on-year decrease of 60%, the sales volume accounted for 67%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.5pct; The sales volume of 600t fell by 72% year-on-year, accounting for 2.6% of the total sales volume; The sales volume of large-scale excavation was 2690 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 63%, accounting for 10% and a year-on-year increase of 0.3pct. From January to March 2022, China's small excavation market recovered relatively well, and the recovery of medium and large excavation market related to infrastructure, real estate and mining industry was relatively slow. The sales volume of small excavation was 34759 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 49%, accounting for 67%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0pct; The sales volume of China mining was 11881 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 64%, accounting for 23%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.4pct; The sales volume of large-scale excavation was 5246 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 57%, accounting for 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5pct.
The national Standing Committee has successively stressed that "steady growth should be put in a more prominent position", and the industrial demand will meet the marginal improvement in the second quarter. In March, the prosperity of China's manufacturing and non manufacturing industries fell below the dry and prosperous line. The two national standing committee meetings on March 29 and April 6 successively stressed that "steady growth should be placed in a more prominent position"; Recently, the regulation of real estate in some cities has been relaxed, and the national development and Reform Commission also required to ensure the implementation and effectiveness of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan China Railway Group Limited(601390) in the first quarter, newly signed orders increased by 84% year-on-year, of which infrastructure orders increased by 94% year-on-year. With the weakening of the base effect and the commencement of major projects, the decline range of construction machinery represented by excavators will be significantly narrowed in the second quarter.
The export of excavators continued to grow rapidly in March. If the export increased by 50% this year, it can hedge the 25% decline in China's sales volume. From January to March, 25289 excavators were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 89%. The export sales volume of excavators has reached 56% CAGR in the past five years. In 2021, the annual export volume reached 68000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 97%, showing an accelerating trend. If the relatively neutral assumption (- 10%) is adopted for the growth of excavator sales in 2022, if the excavator export can maintain a 50% growth, it can hedge the 25% decline of excavator sales in China.
Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and other companies are expected to move from Chinese leader to global leader by virtue of internationalization, digitization and electrification. Construction machinery is China's current advantageous industry. Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain and operation efficiency to achieve global leading position Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and other industry leaders will gain considerable market share by virtue of internationalization, digitization and electrification after completing China's import substitution, and move from China's leader to the global leader.
Investment advice
Keep focusing on the leader of strong alpha attribute. Recommend Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) , Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) ; Continue to be optimistic about Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , China Railway Hi-Tech Industry Corporation Limited(600528) .
Risk tips
Infrastructure and real estate investment are less than expected; The export growth rate of excavator was lower than expected.
