Core logic: driven by the production capacity cycle, the high outlook of the coal industry continues. The supply side reform launched in 2016 resolved excess capacity, exceeded the target, and the supply capacity decreased more than expected. The national development and Reform Commission calls for accelerating the development and expansion of new driving forces, cultivating and developing high-quality and advanced production capacity, but it is far from being thirsty. Judging from the construction period of 3-5 years, the overall scale of coal production capacity that can be truly released in the future is relatively limited. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, with the growth of the national economy, the energy demand of the whole society is expected to maintain a growth trend, the bottom-up guarantee role of coal in the energy system may be more prominent, the absolute consumption of coal will increase steadily, and the coal industry is still in a high boom development stage.
Points beyond expectations: 1) difficulty in increasing production and ensuring supply exceeds expectations: the space for capacity re combing and re mining in 2022 is limited, and it is difficult to increase another 300 million tons of capacity. On March 18, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on establishing a special class to promote the work related to increasing coal production and ensuring supply, indicating that the urgency and difficulty of increasing production and ensuring supply may be more severe than expected. 2) Demand growth toughness exceeded expectations: the downstream data of coal from January to February 2022 seemed to perform poorly, but considering the high growth in the same period last year, the actual performance this year was acceptable, and the demand growth toughness was still very strong. With the continuous development of the national “steady growth” measures, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased steadily, which is expected to drive the higher than expected growth of downstream coal demand. 3) When large factories raise the price of purchased coal, the price limit space is opened, which is higher than expected: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2022 from January 15 to February 11, the price of purchased 5500 kcal of coal is not less than 900 yuan, indicating that “the pit mouth is not more than 700 yuan / ton and the port is not more than 900 yuan / ton”. The impact of the price limit order is weakened, and the space for the rise of spot price is opened. Under the situation of tight supply and demand, it is expected that the coal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. 4) The Russian Ukrainian crisis catalyzed the global energy crisis, and overseas coal prices soared higher than expected: the spot price index of the three major international power coal rose sharply, superimposed with the uncertain prospect of the liberalization of imported coal from Australia and the export obstruction caused by the need for Indonesian coal mines to fulfill DMO, the supplementary effect of imported coal on the supply of China’s market was limited, and the coal import situation was tight. High overseas coal prices and the transfer of imports to domestic trade may exacerbate the tension in coastal coal supply.
Investment suggestion: high performance, increased cash and prominent allocation value. Under the influence of policy pressure and falling demand in the off-season, the coal price has a seasonal correction, but this does not change the long-term high boom trend of the industry; Coal enterprises have successively released annual reports and forecasts of the first quarter report. The performance growth rate is generally fast, and most of them have exceeded expectations; Leading companies paid a high proportion of dividends, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Coal price: the price of power coal is weak in the off-season, and the price of coking coal and coke is strong.
In terms of thermal coal, coal prices fell slightly this week. On the supply side, the output of some areas in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia is limited due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, while coal mine shipments are generally affected by policies and epidemic situations; In addition, the purchase price of large groups has been reduced, and the coal price at the pit mouth has been reduced to a certain extent. At present, it is mainly long-term cooperative transportation. On the demand side, the heating in the north is over, the impact of the epidemic is superimposed in the traditional off-season, the demand is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. We will continue to pay attention to policy changes and the impact of the epidemic in the follow-up.
In terms of coking coal and coke, prices continued to be strong. On the supply side, the recent epidemic situation in Shanxi has been repeated, and some production and shipment have been affected; In terms of importing Mongolian coal, Ganqi Maodu port cleared customs on the 3rd of this week, with an average of 209 vehicles per day, an increase of 15 vehicles per week and a rise in short-term freight and coal prices; On the demand side, the downstream procurement is active, but the arrival is poor under the influence of the epidemic. The coke coal in the plant is passively reduced, and there may be passive production restriction. At the same time, the shipment of coke enterprises is blocked, and the coke has a certain accumulation of coke. The production of steel mills has gradually resumed, the coke inventory is low, and the demand for replenishment is strong. Most coke enterprises have increased in the fifth round, driven by the demand, there are many bullish in the future.
High frequency data tracking
The port price of thermal coal fell; Coking coal port was flat and pit mouth rose. As of April 7, the comprehensive average price index: Bohai Rim thermal coal (q5500k) closed at 737.0 yuan / ton, down 1.0 yuan / ton (- 0.1%) on a weekly basis; As of April 8, the comprehensive trading price: cctd Qinhuangdao thermal coal (q5500) closed at 786.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week on week basis. As of April 8, the closing price of Shanxi production of Qinhuangdao port power end coal (q5500) was 1270.0 yuan / ton, down 35.0 yuan / ton (- 2.7%) on a weekly basis; As of April 8, the price of Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Indonesian coal (q5500) warehouse increased by 1289.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 76.0 yuan / ton (- 5.6%) on a weekly basis Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Australian coal (q5500) warehouse raised the price by 1294.0 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 76.0 yuan / ton (- 5.5%) on a weekly basis. In terms of coking coal, as of April 8, the price (including tax) of the main coking coal warehouse produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port increased by 3350.0 yuan / ton, which was flat on a week-on-week basis Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Shanxi’s main coking coal closing price (tax included) was 3789.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; As of April 8, the average price of Shanxi main coking coal was 2713.0 yuan / ton, up 11.0 yuan / ton (+ 0.4%) on a weekly basis; As of April 8, the sector price of Shanxi Luliang 1 / 3 coke car was 2550.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis.
Thermal coal port and terminal inventory rose, coking coal port inventory rose and terminal inventory fell. As of August, the total power storage of coastal coal depots was 2804.9 million tons, an increase of 1.4% over that of coastal coal depots. As of April 9, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.03 million tons, down 30000 tons (- 0.6%) on a weekly basis. As for coking coal, as of April 8, the coking coal storage of the six major ports had 2.02 million tons, with a weekly increase of 50000 tons (+ 2.5%); As of April 8, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 11.028 million tons, down 384000 tons (- 3.4%) on a weekly basis.
The railway arrival volume and port throughput of Qinhuangdao Port decreased; Coal shipping costs fell. As of April 8, the arrival volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 6190.0 vehicles, with a decrease of 944.0 vehicles (- 13.2%) compared with the ring road; The port throughput of Qinhuangdao port was 490000 tons, down 84000 tons (- 14.6%) on a weekly basis. As of April 8, the ocfi of Qinhuangdao Shanghai (4 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 DWT) Maritime coal freight index was 31.5 yuan / ton, down 2.5 yuan / ton (- 7.4%) on a weekly basis; Qinhuangdao Guangzhou (5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 DWT) Maritime coal freight rate index ocfi52 1 yuan / ton, down 6.7 yuan / ton (- 11.4%) on a weekly basis.
Downstream performance: coke prices are flat, steel prices rise, blast furnace operating rate rises, methanol prices fall and cement prices rise. As of April 8, the closing price of Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) quasi primary metallurgical coke (including tax) was 3610.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of deformed steel bar in Shanghai (hrb40020mm) was 5090.0 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 70.0 yuan / ton (+ 1.4%); The national blast furnace operating rate (247) was 79.3%, with a weekly increase of 1.8% (+ 2.3%); Methanol price index was 2845.0, down 82.0 (- 2.8%) on a weekly basis; The national cement price index was 171.7, down 1.1 (- 0.6%) on a weekly basis..
Risk warning: policy price limit risk; Coal import volume; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
