Weekly News Express
Industry news: 1) the national liquor price: the national Baijiu monthly price index of 100.02 in March, of which the famous liquor is 100.05, the local wine is 99.99, and the base liquor is 100. 2) Zunyi: the output of Baijiu in February was 45 thousand and 500 tons (+7.8%). 3) Shanxi: Several wine projects such as ecological brewing and tourism winery of Shuangyou wine industry in Qingxu County have been started, with a total investment of 3.067 billion yuan.
Company news: 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : I a total of 25.22 million people made an appointment to apply for purchase in Maotai in four days; 2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ; 3) Yanghe: invested and established Tibet earth’s third pole wine industry company in Tibet. Add two departments: brewing management center and intellectual property protection department; 4) China Resources: China Resources war investment plans to purchase 49% equity of golden seed group from Fuyang investment and Development Co., Ltd. and enter the publicity period (April 6-april 15).
Key information feedback this week
Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) : the company issued a forecast for the first quarter. It is estimated that the revenue in 2022q1 will be 3.53-3.56 billion yuan, an increase of 50% – 51.28% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 248258 million yuan, an increase of 30.02% – 35.00% at the same time. It is estimated that 1) the first quarter is the peak season of the Spring Festival, and the company’s famous wines such as maowu contribute greatly; 2) since March, the epidemic has affected the consumption of Baijiu, but the famous liquor and fine liquor have been in good market. 3) In the first quarter, the company received a tax return of 4.55 million yuan; 4) The internal management process was further optimized, and the market response ability and operation efficiency were significantly improved; 5) The number of direct control terminals continued to expand, and the distribution capacity of chain stores continued to improve; 6) Strengthen the promotion of fine wine. Currently Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) stores have completed version 3.0 upgrade iteration. In addition, the e-commerce platform of “Huazhi preferred” was upgraded and renamed as ” Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) flagship store”, and the wechat applet and app were updated simultaneously to improve brand recognition. On the product side, at present, the company takes maowu as the drainage product, makes efforts to develop non-standard customized products, enriches the product matrix, and non-standard customized products have contributed to the profit side. On the channel side, at present, the company implements the development strategy of “small B and large c” channels, steadily expands about Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) stores every year, strengthens the concept of fidelity, and realizes customer transformation through stores and “Huazhi preferred” e-commerce platform.
Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) : the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of Fuling transferred its 100% equity of Fuling SDIC to Fufa group free of charge, forming an indirect acquisition of a listed company under the same control. After this free transfer, the level of controlling shareholders of the company has changed. Fuling SDIC is still the controlling shareholder of the company, Fuling group is the indirect controlling shareholder of the company, and Fuling District SASAC is still the actual controller of the company. The transfer is to thoroughly implement the relevant requirements of the three-year action plan of state-owned enterprises, which can effectively improve the company’s enterprise management level and operation efficiency. The company’s performance growth target in 2022 is 15%. At present, the company has made good progress in price increase, and the terminal has been basically completed. Under the effect of price increase, the price increase dividend is prominent. The overall cost side has decreased. The average purchase price of young vegetables in 2022 is about 800 yuan / ton (1100 yuan / ton in 2021). It is expected to launch new vegetables in succession around May. At that time, the cost will drop significantly, driving the increase of gross profit margin. In addition, the cost investment in 2022 is more accurate, the overall sales expense rate is expected to decline, and the profit side of the company is more flexible.
Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) : the revenue in 2021 was 1.111 billion yuan, an increase of 22.21% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 85 million yuan, a decrease of 17.76% at the same time. The target revenue growth rate in 2022 shall not be less than 20%. In terms of brand, in 2022, the company will continue to focus on building the brand image of brine snack experts with leading sales, cultivating category cognition and deepening brand construction. In terms of products, the company will continue to drive the transformation and upgrading of core categories through technological upgrading and standardization, so as to achieve the goal of optimizing product taste, reducing product cost and improving the core competitiveness of products. In terms of channels, the company adheres to the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) all channel development strategy, takes channel layout and construction as the development core of the company, and continuously improves the market competitiveness of products. In 2022, the company will continue to increase investment in research and development, market and other aspects to further improve the company’s product advantages and channel advantages.
Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) : 1) sailing 27 plan: big city plan, new retail, high-end and high-end continue to be promoted. Big cities and plans: with the expansion of big cities, matrix optimization will be carried out for mature big cities; New retail: it will actively expand new retail, and the e-commerce community o2o will have slight changes. 2) In the face of cost pressure, the price will be locked in the early stage to continuously optimize efficiency, and part of it will be digested through price increase. 3) The market investment cost will be invested in big cities and new retail according to the plan of 2020. Administrative expenses will remain stable in 2022. 4) Brand strategy: drive Loulan secret brewed black beer, white beer, Lebao (including premix, pure raw and soda), Chongqing brand (including Golden beer) through Wusu brand; Alcohol free beer and alcoholic beverages (Lebao prepared liquor) are important categories in the future. 5) Capacity planning: 150000 tons of Dali can pulling line (put into operation in June 2021), 130000 tons of Yancheng new plant (put into operation in July 2021), 150000 tons of Yibin can pulling line (put into operation in September 2021), 110000 tons of Xichang technical transformation (put into operation in October 2022), and 500000 tons of Foshan new base (put into operation in 2024).
Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : the company’s personnel changes are finally settled, and the power transfer is smooth. President Gu has served as the general manager of the company since November 2, 2020, and then served as the vice chairman of the company. After one and a half years of familiarity with the work, we believe that President Gu has the ability to lead the company into a new era, and the follow-up is worthy of attention and expectation. President Zhou served as chairman of the company during the more than 20 years, and made a significant contribution to the development of a small wine factory from a small brewery to a listed liquor company and a stable Baijiu second place in the province. After President Gu becomes the new chairman of the board, we need to solve the following points concerned by the market: 1) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) whether we can successfully get out of the province and how to get out of the province effectively. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the goal of getting out of the province accounts for more than 20%; 2) Whether the space in the province has been saturated and whether the 14th five year plan goal can be achieved; 3) whether the company can continue to lead the Baijiu consumption upgrading in Jiangsu after upgrading and upgrading the V series four times. Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) : in 2021, the revenue was 1.375 billion yuan (+ 41.06%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 314 million yuan (+ 78.92%), and the deduction was 152 million yuan (+ 18.01%). 1) The revenue of stores in East China is 340000, higher than that of stores in East China in 2021, which is 340000 in previous years. The short-term takeout business will increase the income of single stores, and there is more room for long-term improvement. 2) The major customer channels of group meals are traditional enterprises and institutions, catering supply chain companies, chain convenience stores, chain catering stores and fresh food platforms, which will maintain rapid growth in the next 2-3 years.
3) As pork prices are expected to decline in 2022, the gross profit margin will remain optimistic at the 2021q4 level. 4) E-commerce will be established in 2020, takeout will be included in e-commerce in 2021, group meal business department will be upgraded to key customer business department, and digital R & D center will be established. 5) The growth rate of opening stores in Central China is fast, and the consolidation of tables began in 2022q2. 6) Lock fresh clothes have developed well, and the channel has turned to fresh e-commerce.
Investment view
Baijiu: because of the serious epidemic situation in China, especially in Shanghai, Tomb Sweeping Day is the same as daily life. It is expected that 51 may be in the low peak of consumption. If the May 1 year is back to normal, the annual impact of Baijiu is controllable, and it is expected to affect the number of digits. This week Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) released a quarterly forecast. The performance in the first quarter is still strong. The company is a shadow stock of maowu, indicating that high-end wine is less affected by the epidemic Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) the chairman of the board was changed. President Gu took over the company and entered a new stage and a new chapter. At present, the epidemic situation shows a point like diffusion trend, and the market sentiment is cautious, expressing concern about the sustainability of performance in the second quarter. From the past quarter, fundamentals are important underpinning factors. Once the epidemic is improved, the subsequent valuation can be fixed. We hope the subsequent Baijiu sector will rebound.
Volkswagen products: this week Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) held a performance presentation meeting, Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) released the annual report of 2021, and Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) had equity transfer. On the whole, due to the impact of the epidemic, there is a general feedback that the public products were affected by the epidemic in the first quarter, especially in March. They are in the defense stage as a whole and need continuous observation. At present, under the background of rising raw materials and weak demand, the market is worried about the performance of overvalued stocks. We also suggest to actively pay attention to enterprises with undervalued and declining cost side, continue to pay attention to the transmission progress of price increase of beer and condiments, and actively pay attention to the structural opportunities of snack food.
On the whole, our view remains unchanged: at this stage Baijiu sector we recommend three high-end wine giants ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ), three high-end three swordsmen ( Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ), real estate wine, four gentlemen ( Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ). We recommend Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , etc. in the popular products sector, and continue to pay attention to the structural opportunities in the food sector. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the food and beverage industry.
Risk tips
Risk of epidemic fluctuation; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Recommend the risk that the company’s performance is less than expected; Industry competition risk; Food safety risks; Risk of changes in industrial policies; Consumption tax or production risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
