Baijiu price is expected to rise, popular products two ideas stock selection
From April 4 to April 8, the food and beverage index fell by 1.4%, ranking 14th in the primary sub industry, about 0.3pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the focus of the market is the impact of the epidemic on consumer demand. Baijiu Baijiu rhythm, the 3-4 month epidemic has little effect on the annual target of liquor enterprises, mainly due to the 3-4 month Baijiu sales in low season, and the epidemic focus on several cities, most of the city can achieve normal drinking scenes. If the epidemic can be effectively controlled as soon as possible, there will be a small climax of banquets and replenishment in the peak consumption season in May. In view of the problem of phased goods rejection by some dealers before, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) both strengthened the management of market order and supported the price by reducing volume and expenses. It is estimated that on the premise that the low-cost inventory consumption of dealers is over and the epidemic control is in place, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Guojiao will increase the probability of price approval. In addition, the two enterprises have launched waist products, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) through large platform providers to focus on the promotion of series wine, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) focus on Tequ 60, etc. Through the joint efforts of multi price products, the annual performance was improved.
The disturbance of the epidemic to mass products lies in: on the one hand, it affects the demand for mass products through the restriction of consumption scenes; On the other hand, the supply of consumer goods is affected by the restriction of logistics. In March, most popular products faced the problem of shrinking demand, and inventory became the regulator for manufacturers to balance delivery and moving pins. Considering the goal of completing the task in the first quarter, some enterprises choose to increase inventory to complete the shipment task; The inventory of some enterprises has been at a high level, and the growth rate of shipment and dynamic sales is the same. After March, the inventory of most popular products is close to a high level, and they all face the common problem of destocking in the future. We predict that in April, most enterprises will increase terminal promotion through cost investment to reduce inventory. The actual effect is related to the degree of epidemic prevention and control, the speed of demand recovery and the implementation of channels. If the epidemic situation is effectively controlled in April, the second quarter should be a process of gradual stabilization after the demand bottoms out. We suggest two ideas for investment in popular products: first, the medium and long-term layout of high-quality leaders at the bottom, such as Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , etc; Second, pay attention to the subject matter with high elasticity of short-term quarterly performance and low valuation, such as Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) etc.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) forecasts 2022Q1 revenue and profits growth of 18% and 19% respectively, showing a flourishing trend of high-end liquor Baijiu in the Spring Festival. It also reflects the obvious effect of sales reform. The e-commerce platform was officially launched, and the channel reform went further. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) forecast 2021q4 to achieve revenue growth of 11% and net profit growth of about 11%. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of movable sales is good. After the management of the company is stable, it is expected to carry out the work of raising prices. It is estimated that the double-digit growth rate will be completed in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) it is estimated that the revenue and profit from January to February will increase by more than 35% and 50%, mainly due to the significant improvement of product structure, the growth momentum under the epidemic situation remains unchanged, and the annual performance is still possible to exceed expectations. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) released the annual report. In 2021q4, the revenue benefited from the price increase to achieve accelerated growth, but the increase of cost price put pressure on the profit. In 2022, the planned revenue and profit will increase by 12%, which will be realized by reducing cost and increasing efficiency, accelerating market transformation and product innovation. It is suggested to lay out the bottom and hold it for a long time. (5) Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) : the profit margin of the company will increase in 2022. The main sources are: first, the effect of price increase at the end of the year should appear throughout the year; Second, the cost reduction is relatively clear; Third, the cost rate shrank accordingly. The performance release has a band market, and it is expected that the profit of the statements in the second and third quarters may increase relatively.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
