Key investment points:
In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased month on month, and Byd Company Limited(002594) stopping the production of fuel vehicles will effectively make up for the corresponding market. Some auto companies released the sales data of new energy vehicles in March. Although the production bases of some auto companies in Shanghai and Changchun were slightly affected by the epidemic, in addition, mainstream auto companies gradually raised prices in mid March to cope with the price rise of the industrial chain, but the sales data still continued the previous high growth trend. On April 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) . Compared with the traditional plug-in hybrid, Byd Company Limited(002594) DM-I focuses more on the performance of fuel economy. After entering 2022, Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid performs well, while Han DM-I shows strong order demand in the pre-sale stage, which makes Byd Company Limited(002594) have the confidence to replace fuel models with hybrid models.
High fuel prices have led to a high boom in the electric vehicle market, and the penetration rate of seven European countries has further increased. After the centralized delivery at the end of the year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe decreased significantly month on month in early 2022 under the influence of holiday effect and tight chip supply. However, after entering March, with the arrival of Tesla imports and the resumption of work by dealers in March, the sales volume in Europe returned to normal in March. According to statistics, in March, the sales volume of seven European countries reached 196600, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, a month on month increase of 61.9% and a penetration rate of 22.9%. Under the situation of sharp rise in fuel prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the sales volume of new energy vehicles further maintained a high growth. We expect that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe as a whole in March 2022 will be 264000, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed the high growth expectation of 2.9 million.
Investment suggestion: we expect that the lithium resource market will continue to strengthen, the mismatch cycle of this round of supply and demand will exceed expectations, and the prices of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate are expected to remain high. When the promotion progress of overseas new supply is less than expected, we should pay more attention to the relevant listed companies with low development cost and high-quality lithium resources, who can obtain higher gross profit with lower cost in the price rise, Therefore, the performance elasticity is relatively large; In addition, China's listed companies with relevant resources have integrated the production and sales of lithium salt through lithium mining. With the continuous improvement of the new energy vehicle market, the end demand vehicle enterprises seek to extend upward and directly sign supply agreements with lithium salt manufacturers to reduce the cost of the industrial chain. The listed companies with relevant integrated layout are expected to continue to expand their market share by virtue of price advantages. In addition, pay attention to the growth opportunities of lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers' capacity under the high prospect of new energy vehicle industry. The promotion of downstream demand has also driven the strong order demand of midstream battery material manufacturers. We can pay attention to the leading cathode material manufacturers with deep layout of high nickel ternary technology in cathode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion, as well as the leading diaphragm manufacturers whose supply is still in short supply.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in lithium battery industry is intensified, the recovery of new energy power generation industry is less than expected, the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates sharply, and the policies of new energy industry are less than expected.
