Main points:
In March, the growth rate of listed pig enterprises continued to differentiate, and pig breeding stocks traded time for space.
① pig prices fell by 2.0% on a week-on-week basis. On Saturday, the national pig price was 12.39 yuan / kg, down 2.0% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 18.22 yuan / kg, up 0.8% on a weekly basis; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs was 511.57 yuan / head, and the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 282.58 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low weight pigs dropped to the lowest in recent years, and the willingness of piglets to make up for slaughter increased slightly. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (4.1-4.7): the proportion of pigs within 90kg in China was 5.79%, and the weekly ratio decreased by 0.05 percentage points, which was the lowest level since the non plague; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 411 yuan / head, up 0.7% on a weekly basis, up 167% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1622 yuan / head, flat on a weekly basis, up 31% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ In March, the growth rate of listed pig enterprises continued to differentiate. In March 2022, the number of sales (10000 heads) is in order from high to low, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 598.6, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 144.8, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) 142.7, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 96.7, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 36.1, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 33.62, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 19.8, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 17.0, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 13.1, Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) 4.9, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) 1.5; The year-on-year growth rate on year-on-year growth rate from high to low is in the order from high to low, in the order from high to low, with Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) %, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 1.1%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) -6.8%, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) -11.6%. ④ The pig price is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, so time can change space. The turning point of production capacity of China’s pig breeding industry appeared in June last year: according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the number of fertile sows in China will increase from 45.64 million at the end of June last year to 42.68 million at the end of February this year, a cumulative decrease of 6.5%; According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.5% month on month in February this year, which is still in the downward channel. In March, the price of live pigs continued to be low. We expect the number of fertile sows in March to continue to decline. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience the bottom grinding stage this year, and the pig price is expected to enter the upward cycle in 2023. We’re counting the market value of each pig’s head by the amount we’re expected to see in 2022, and we’re counting the market value of each pig’s head by the expected roll of the year in 2022, which is expected to measure the market value of each pig’s head, with Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ‘s expected in the year 2022. We’re counting the market value of each pig’s head, the market value of the Hubei Century Network Technology Inc(300494) 9498of each pig’s head, the Hubei Century Network Technology Inc(300494) 98 , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) .
The price of white feather chicken products rose by 0.5% on a weekly basis, while the price of yellow feather chicken fell on a weekly basis.
① the price of white feather chicken products increased by 0.5% on a weekly basis. In the 13th week of 2022 (3.28-4.3), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 19.73 yuan / set, with a weekly increase of 4.9%; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 783200 sets, down 22% month on month; On Friday, the price of white feather chicken products was 9930 yuan / ton, up 0.5% week on week. China Poultry Industry Association released the February report: from January to February 2022, the national white feather ancestral renewal volume was 161400 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 35.7%, of which the ancestral renewal volume was 36800 sets in February, a year-on-year sharp decrease of 76.6%. With the decline of the price of parents’ chicken seedlings, the willingness of ancestral renewal began to decline. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased by 24.3% year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices fell week on week. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of April 8, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast chicken was 5.92 yuan / kg, down 9.8% month on week and 7.4% year-on-year; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.81 yuan / kg, down 0.7% week on week and 8.1% year-on-year; The average price of native chicken was 8.21 yuan / kg, down 1.2% in the week and 0.9% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 8.51 yuan / kg, down 2.4% month on week and up 10.5% year-on-year.
In March, the prosperity of veterinary vaccine remained low, and swine vaccine focused on the progress of non plague vaccine.
In March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: foot-and-mouth vaccine 37.5%, Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 11.9%, porcine circadian vaccine – 21.5%, highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine – 25.8%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 37.9%, diarrhea vaccine – 40.9% and classical swine fever vaccine – 43.2%. From January to March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: foot-and-mouth vaccine 2.4%, highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine – 7.6%, porcine circadian vaccine – 28.8%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 29.8%, diarrhea vaccine – 46.6%, classical swine fever vaccine – 47.6% and Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 52.5%. We believe that the pig price is still at the bottom stage in 2022, and the prosperity of pig vaccine may remain low. It is suggested to focus on the progress of non plague vaccine.
USDA and the April report of the Ministry of Agriculture announced that Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices remained high.
① the commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of seed industry. We judge the impact as follows: I) GM corn seeds may be sold in the second half of 2023. The draft of amendments to the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production can be carried out as soon as 2023, and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. ② Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in April predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from 20 / 21 and up 0.3 percentage points from the predicted value in March, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in April: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 is 4.83 million tons, which is the same as that in March and 3.24 million tons lower than that in 2020 / 21.
In the year of 21 / 22, China’s corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. On Friday, the spot price of corn was 284059 yuan / ton, up 0.1% week on week and down 0.4% year on year; ③ Wheat prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The supply and demand report of USDA in April predicted that the global wheat stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 35.2%, down 1.9 percentage points compared with that in 20 / 21 and 0.6 percentage points compared with the predicted value in March, still at the lowest level since 16 / 17; ④ Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The supply and demand report of USDA in April predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 24.8%, down 3.7 percentage points compared with that in 20 / 21 and up 0.1 percentage points compared with the predicted value in March; The global soybean meal inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 5.4%, 0.7 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the predicted value in March, still at the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in April: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 is 170000 tons, which is the same as that in March, a decrease of 5.89 million tons compared with that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022. On Friday, the spot price of soybean was 550474 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis, up 7.9% year-on-year; The spot price of soybean meal was 450629 yuan / ton, down 4.7% month on week and up 33.7% year-on-year.
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
