Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: this week (4.1-4.8), the closing price of QinGang port was corrected in the off-season, and the daily 8 closed at 1270 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.93% Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) 5500 Shanxi excellent mixing warehouse raised the price to close at 1455 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 2.02%, and the annual price center increased by 13.86% compared with last year. High overseas coal prices follow the adjustment. The port inventory is replenished, and the downstream power plant begins to replenish the inventory.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: the demand improved this week, and the price of metallurgical coal was flat. The port’s main coking coal 8 daily received 3350 yuan / ton, the price of imported coking coal rose 0.00% weekly, and the import price difference remained 330 yuan / ton. De inventory of ports and terminals. The price of Shanxi injection coal was the same as last week, closing at 2050 yuan / ton. Downstream maintenance to the warehouse. On the demand side, coke prices were flat during the week, with coke oven operating rate of 78.3%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points over last week. The coke inventory of coking plant and port increased, and the coke inventory of steel plant decreased. The steel price closed at 5135 yuan / ton, up 1.16% this week, and the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 79.9%, an increase of 5.78 percentage points over last week.
Equity view: the coal sector rose 0.6% this week, slightly outperforming the index. From the fundamental point of view, different coal types show obvious differentiation. The power coal industry chain presents off-season characteristics. Prices fall with demand, inventory replenishment, and pay attention to the release speed of supply and changes in overseas coal prices. Metallurgical coal prices are stable as a whole. Under the background of steady growth, pay attention to the marginal change of demand side data. Since the first quarter, prices have risen continuously and remained high, and trading sentiment has been rising. According to the forecast of the first quarter report currently released, the performance of each company in the first quarter exceeded market expectations. In the future, as listed companies release their performance one after another, the dynamic valuation of the sector is still low, and there is some room for repair. In addition, at present, the profitability of listed companies is high, the capital expenditure is declining, and the valuation level is generally lower than that of other industries. High dividends are worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, with the continuous issuance of energy guarantee bonds recently, although the financing has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the interest rate spread has expanded by 5bp recently, but it remains low as a whole, in which the quantile of low-grade interest rate spread is differentiated from that of medium and high-grade interest rate spread. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it is better to choose the opportunity or take the best policy. For exposure, it can consider the good de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: policy risk; Strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; The reconstruction of the world coal trade pattern under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
