Key investment points:
Market review: from April 6 to April 8, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index fell by 3.17% as a whole, ranking the 21st among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the CSI 300 index by about 2.1 percentage points in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, comprehensive services, hotel catering, tourism and leisure and education sectors rose or fell by – 6.25%, – 3.56%, – 3.92% and 1.55% respectively, of which, except for the education sector, they all lost the CSI 300 index. There were 16 listed companies with positive earnings in the industry, and the top five were Tempus Global Business Service Group Holding Ltd(300178) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Dalian Sunasia Tourism Holding Co.Ltd(600593) , Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(000526) , up 24.41%, 13.78%, 10.95%, 9.72% and 8.50% respectively. 37 companies achieved negative returns, among which the top five listed companies were Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shenzhen Kingsun Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300235) , Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , up and down by – 6.19%, – 8.60%, – 9.08%, – 10.18% and – 10.33% respectively. As of April 8, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC consumer service industry was about 37.91 times, slightly lower than last week and 46.59 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive service sectors are 30.41 times, 107.68 times, 43.72 times and 50.97 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of April 8, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 22777 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 3.295 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 2655600 doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 144.39 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 58.24%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 133182 million doses.
Key industry news: (1) the National Health Commission said that the epidemic is still running at a high level, and the prevention and control situation is severe and complex. (2) China Tourism Research Institute predicts that in the first quarter, China’s tourism travel and China’s tourism revenue decreased by 5% and 13% year-on-year respectively. (3) Yunnan has introduced relief and support measures for the tourism industry to help the industry recover and develop. (4) Heilongjiang province’s “several policies and measures for supporting the development of ice and snow economy in Heilongjiang Province” specifies that no less than 200 million yuan will be allocated every year to support the development of ice and snow industry.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. This week, China’s sporadic epidemic has maintained a high level, and the prevention and control situation is severe and complex. The China Tourism Research Institute expects that in the first quarter, China’s tourism travel and China’s tourism revenue will decrease by 5% and 13% year-on-year respectively. In the short term, the consumer service industry will be under pressure. Yunnan, Zhejiang, Heilongjiang and other provinces have successively launched relief policies and relevant measures to support the development of cultural and tourism industry, and the implementation of assistance policies. In the long run, the epidemic is controlled and the expectation of certainty is high. It is suggested to pay attention to key scenic spot companies Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ) that are expected to benefit from the relief and tax reduction policies, and hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ) with high light assets.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; The promotion of relevant policies is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; The development of vaccines and drugs is less than expected.
