Key investment points:
Market review. As of April 8, 2022, CITIC’s basic chemical industry fell by 0.66% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.4% and ranking 11th among CITIC’s 30 industries; CITIC’s basic chemical industry rose 0.10% this month, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points, ranking 15th among CITIC’s 30 industries.
Specific to the three-level sub industries of CITIC basic chemical industry, from the performance of the recent week, the top five sectors are phosphate fertilizer and phosphate chemical (+ 12.06%), potassium fertilizer (+ 6.27%), compound fertilizer (+ 6.10%), nitrogen fertilizer (+ 4.57%) and titanium dioxide (+ 3.06%); From the performance of the last week, the top five sectors of decline were carbon fiber (- 8.11%), lithium chemicals (- 5.85%), fluorochemicals (- 4.70%), electronic chemicals (- 4.19%) and membrane materials (- 4.16%).
Among the stocks with the highest gains this week, Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) , Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) and Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) performed best, with gains of 22.59%, 16.31% and 15.63% respectively. Among the stocks with the highest decline this week, Gpro Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(000545) , Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) and Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) performed the worst, with declines of – 19.54%, – 19.41% and – 12.81% respectively.
Rise and fall of chemical products: among the key monitored chemical products, the products with the top five price increases this week are phosphate rock (+ 8.06%), epichlorohydrin (+ 4.96%), carbon black (+ 3.00%), propylene (+ 2.42%), pure benzene (+ 2.22%), and the products with the top five price decreases are trichloroethylene (- 6.31%), DMF (- 5.94%), dichloromethane (- 5.70%), Chinese diesel (- 5.65%) and refrigerant R134a (- 4.35%).
Weekly view of basic chemical industry: Recently, the international grain price has remained high, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has blocked the export of Russian chemical fertilizer. Russia is a large exporter of potash fertilizer in the world, and the international potash price may remain high. It is suggested to pay attention to Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ( Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ); At present, the price difference of phosphate fertilizer outside China is large. If China’s export is liberalized after spring ploughing, the profits of Chinese phosphate fertilizer enterprises may improve. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ( Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ), Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) ( Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) ), etc. At the same time, at this stage, it is suggested to pay attention to the good performance of the newspaper industry in the first quarter, Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ( Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ), Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), etc. Recently, due to the force majeure of BASF American device, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) as the world’s largest MDI supplier is expected to benefit. At the same time, as the industry leader, the company has orderly expansion of production capacity and is optimistic about its long-term sustainable development. It is recommended to pay attention to it. In addition, the real estate regulation policies in many places have been relaxed recently. We can pay attention to the company Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ( Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ) in the field of soda ash, the raw material upstream of glass.
Risk warning: the fluctuation risk of energy price and international grain price caused by the uncertainty of Russia Ukraine conflict; Risk of narrowing the price difference of chemical products due to sharp fluctuations in oil prices; Under the background of stable supply and price, the export of some chemical fertilizers in China is limited; The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price of chemical fertilizer leads to the risk that the price of chemical fertilizer drops more than expected; If macroeconomic pressure leads to the risk that the downstream demand of chemical products is lower than expected; Risk of deterioration of supply and demand pattern due to the rapid release of new capacity of some chemical products; The risk of intensified industry competition; The relaxation of real estate policy is less than the expected risk; Natural and man-made disasters and other force majeure events.
