Main points
This week, the household appliance sector rose by - 1.7%, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sector rose by - 1.7% / - 0.9% / + 0.5% / - 4.4% respectively. In terms of raw material prices, LME copper, LME aluminum, steel and plastics prices were + 1.4%, - 2.5%, + 1.3% and - 1.3% month on month respectively.
Since the beginning of March, a new round of epidemic has continued to ferment. This round of epidemic has strong infectivity and obvious regional structural characteristics. Compared with the previous variant strains, the infectivity of Omicron was significantly enhanced, but the regional structure was dominated by Shandong, Guangdong, Jilin and Shanghai. At present, the epidemic situation in Qingdao, Shandong, Shenzhen, Guangdong and Dongguan has been preliminarily controlled, and the situation in Jilin and Shanghai is still severe. From the perspective of epidemic prevention and control measures, residents' consumption and logistics have been significantly affected. Among them, Shenzhen has been closed for a week, Changchun has implemented temporary traffic control, and Shanghai launched two batches of city wide closure screening on March 28.
Under the influence of this round of epidemic, the logistics has basically stagnated, and the consumption of typical epidemic beneficiary categories such as refrigerators, freezers and kitchens has been delayed. It is expected that there may be centralized release growth after the epidemic is controlled in the second quarter. In the epidemic in 2020, refrigerators, freezers and kitchens, as the typical categories benefiting from the epidemic, increased against the trend in that year. The year-on-year growth rate of ice cold was 17%, among which the demand for refrigerators and freezers abroad broke out rapidly, and the year-on-year growth rate of ice cold exports reached 32%. The online sales of cooking machines, wall breaking machines, frying and baking machines and other emerging kitchen products accelerated by the epidemic in the first and second quarters, with an increase of more than 70%. Specific to the time rhythm, the number of newly diagnosed people fell (W7) and the year-on-year growth rate of kitchen small online sales opened the upward channel.
The current round of epidemic only involves some regions, and the impact on home movies will be significantly weaker than that in 2020. However, the impact of the epidemic on offline consumption is more obvious than that in 2020. The logistics in some regions affected by the current round of epidemic basically stagnates. Combined with the outbreak of overseas cold demand in the past 20 years, the epidemic house will further catalyze consumers' demand for refrigerators, freezers, kitchens and other household appliances. Considering the logistics stagnation, there may be centralized release growth after the epidemic is controlled in the second quarter.
Investment advice
Faced with many uncertainties in the external environment such as raw materials and shipping in 2022, it is recommended to select tracks with strong certainty. It is suggested to grasp two main lines: 1) emerging home appliance tracks with both growth and certainty, including floor sweepers, integrated stoves and projectors; The performance of the first quarter continues to be verified, and it is recommended to actively layout at this stage. It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic intelligent micro investment leader with leading technology and all-round barriers to consumer goods Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) . The logic of improving the penetration rate of integrated stoves has been continuously verified by data, and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which has long-term vision of leading strategic pattern, strong brand marketing and channel power and rapid expansion of scale, is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which has strong product power and continuously reflects the effectiveness of the change of the few owners.
2) demand and profit continue to repair, and white electricity and small kitchen appliances are expected to usher in an inflection point in the second quarter. White power recommends focusing on Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , which complies with the demand of consumption upgrading, maintains high growth, improves efficiency and governance optimization, and continuously improves profitability. The epidemic catalysed the demand for home cooking, which is expected to benefit from the centralized release of Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) .
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected demand, the risk of repeated outbreaks, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of chip out of stock and rising prices.
