This week’s view
Baijiu sector: Fearless pandemic disturbance, strongly recommend 22Q1 performance to determine strong targets.
Plate review: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ranked first in performance, and the internal organization adjustment proposal of Yanghe was passed
April 6th ~4 8, 3 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.06%, the food and beverage sector fell 1.37%, Baijiu sector fell less than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 0.65%. Specifically, Baijiu sector, Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) (+20.88%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (+3.78%) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (+3.57%) are the biggest gainers. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ‘s main stock price rises this week are: 1) last week, the “I Moutai” e-commerce platform was launched on schedule, and the marketing reform was further promoted. 2) The stability of this week’s rating is good; 3) The valuation has been cost-effective. Baijiu Baijiu, a company that has been following the previous view, is now more worried about demand side and dynamic sales performance (for example, a second tier high-end consumer is temporarily inhibited or affects the high-end liquor price / two quarter Baijiu demand or affected to the two quarter performance). We believe that under the off-season background, the epidemic has limited impact on liquor business performance, and the current liquor sector valuation is low, and we are still optimistic about the liquor sector performance.
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : through the internal organization adjustment proposal, haizhilan will be listed soon
In terms of organizational structure, the resolution of the 8th meeting of the 7th board of directors of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) this week announced the adoption of the proposal on internal organizational structure adjustment, adding brewing management center and intellectual property protection department at the group level, and moving the company’s headquarters to Suqian. In addition, at the beginning of the year, the company has adjusted the market organization structure and flattened the original region into 62 business units (including 40 + Yanghe business unit and 10 + Shuanggou business unit). Each business unit has independent decision-making power, and the operation efficiency is steadily improving. In terms of inventory, the inventory of dream blue in the province is less than 1.5 months, and the inventory of sea blue and sky blue is less than 2 months. Among them, sea blue has stopped shipping, and the upgraded version of sea blue is expected to be put into the market in May; In terms of dynamic sales, due to the weak impact of the epidemic in March in Jiangsu Province, while the epidemic in Shanghai (with a scale of about 800900 million yuan in 21 years) outside the province began to ferment in the second half of March, the delivery of 22q1 company was normal, and the overall impact on sales was limited.
Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : release the announcement of the chairman’s personnel change, and look forward to the development of 10 billion yuan after Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369)
This week, the company issued a personnel change announcement of the chairman. After voting by all directors present, Mr. Gu Xiangyue was elected as the chairman of the company, the chairman of the strategy committee of the board of directors and the member of the nomination committee of the board of directors. The term of office is the same as that of the Fourth Board of directors of the company. At the same time, Mr. Zhou suming was appointed as the honorary chairman of the company. We are optimistic about the development of the company after the new chairman takes office:
Growth source of the latter 10 billion: 1. Stable opening of the basic sector, and rapid development of the V-series. 1) Rapid development of V Series: clear structure of high-end products + empowerment of organizational structure (establishment of V9 business unit and V99 alliance) + rich channel profits. It is expected that V series can still maintain a doubling growth trend. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, V series revenue may reach 5 billion yuan, or exceed market expectations. 2) The opening system is basically stable: four opening and counter opening still have advantages in Nanjing and other markets. The wholesale price of four opening is stable at about 450 yuan. Driven by the brand power, elegant Guoyuan has developed into the third largest single product.
Source 2 of the growth of the latter 10 billion: refocusing outside the province to create a sector market. 1) Within the province: the growth rate of mature markets such as Huai’an and Nanjing may slow down slightly. The Xuzhou market is in a period of rapid growth. The market in Central Jiangsu is revitalized. At present, the structure is dominated by national borders, and southern Jiangsu is expected to become another growth pole in the province. 2) Outside the province: in the future, we will focus on opening up the Department as the focus of development outside the province, focus on resources, focus on building 2-3 key markets, and pay more attention to performance outside the province. At present, the proportion of foreign friends in the province accounts for 50%, and it is expected that the proportion of revenue outside the province in the 14th five year plan will reach more than 20%.
We believe that the 14th five year plan of the company is rational and positive (strive to achieve revenue of more than 10 billion yuan and strive for 15 billion yuan in 2025), the target of 10 billion yuan is expected to be achieved ahead of schedule, and the equity incentive is expected to be implemented in 2022, so we are optimistic about the long-term growth of the company.
Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) : 2022q1 has a good start, and the performance of the revenue side is better than expected
The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022: it is expected to realize an operating revenue of RMB 3.530-3.560 billion in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 50.00% – 51.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 248258 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.02% – 35.00%. The main reasons for the higher than expected increase in revenue are as follows: 1) the store has sufficient goods in the peak season and the ability to take goods continues to improve; 2) Combined with the epidemic prevention and control situation, the company’s strategy was further optimized and the marketing rhythm was well grasped; 3) The distribution capacity of chain stores has been continuously improved, and the number of direct supply outlets has continued to expand; 4) The number of direct supply terminal outlets continued to expand, effectively contributing to the continuous growth of sales revenue. The net profit performance was in line with expectations and the performance was good, mainly due to the excellent performance of high margin boutique wine.
Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) : the performance in 2021 was in line with expectations and the brand operation business performed well
The company issued the annual report of 20201: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 70.208 billion yuan (+3.06%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 506 million yuan (+ 310.29%); The net profit deducted from non parent company was 434 million yuan (+ 467.03%). The company’s key development business – brand operation business, achieved a revenue of 3.519 billion yuan (+ 70.38%) and a comprehensive gross profit of 640 million yuan (+ 71.38%) in 2021, including a revenue of 1.245 billion yuan (+ 43.10%) from wine and beverage business. A new force suddenly rises. In recent three years, Baijiu “treasure one” and “Taiwan black gold ten years” are important single products. In 2021, H1 added “digest 12” to Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) . We also launched the characteristic IP sauce wine product “Datang secret manufacturing” (the base wine supply distillery is located in the core sauce wine production area of Maotai Town, with the top five production capacity, adjacent to the “Guotai liquor industry”, the “Datang liquor industry” with an annual production capacity of more than 5000 tons, and the price band covers the range of Tianjin Jingwei Huikai Optoelectronic Co.Ltd(300120) 0). We continue to be optimistic about the development of the company’s sauce wine business.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rated price tends to be stable this week, and the overall inventory performance is healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the pricing of Feitian Maotai / 1935 is stable at 2680 yuan and 1350 yuan this week. With the launch of e-commerce platform, the pricing of Feitian Maotai may be effectively controlled in stages The approval price is further increased by ก this week, which is conducive to the superposition of ก approval price of this week and ก market approval price of ก 1800 yuan Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the wholesale price is about 910920 yuan. The payment began in early March (the comprehensive cost was increased to 980 yuan). The growth target of Guojiao in 22 years is 30%, and the overall performance of the wholesale price is stable.
Investment suggestion: under the disturbance of the epidemic situation, firmly recommend the target of high growth and strong certainty of 22q1 performance
The current annual report quarter & the phased implementation of wine enterprise reform measures will be the main catalyst at this stage. Considering that the early sector has experienced a decline of “basically facing the good trend, mainly disturbed by the emotional side” & the valuation of the sector has also been cost-effective, it is recommended to make a positive layout.
Although Baijiu consumption is subject to some disturbance, we strongly recommend 22Q1’s strong performance and high margin: annual margin and marginal performance change, and the current valuation has the following targets: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .
[beer sector]: this week’s sector correction, focusing on post epidemic repair opportunities
Plate review: this week’s sector correction was mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic on the scene of drinking consumption
From April 6 to April 8, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.06%, the food and beverage sector fell by 1.37%, and the beer sector fell by 3.01% more than the CSI 300. Specifically, Budweiser Asia Pacific (- 2.20%), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (- 2.59%), Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (- 2.85%), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (- 4.77%) and China Resources beer (- 8.21%) fell significantly this week, mainly due to the continuous fermentation of the epidemic all over the country, and the number of new confirmed + disease-free people on that day has not reached the inflection point. The epidemic situation affects the demand of beer drinking scene. We think we should pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation in the main sales areas of various wine enterprises, And the opportunity to repair the beer sector after the epidemic.
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) update: the consumption upgrading trend continues, and multiple measures are taken to deal with the cost pressure
Tsingtao Beer’s business performance improved from January to February in the past 22 years, and its sales volume declined in March. We expect that Q1 revenue is still expected to grow, Q1 high-end products are still growing, and the transmission of price increase is smooth. We are still optimistic about the acceleration of Tsingtao Beer’s high-end process. Specifically: 1) products: the caliber of high-end products has been adjusted in the past 21 years. At present, it is mainly pure products + new and special products. The legend of 1000 yuan new products has a good sales in the Spring Festival this year. In recent years, it has actively carried out product upgrading and cut off low-priced varieties. The reserves of other new categories are mineral water (not in listed companies) and whisky. 2) Market: the industry is still in a state of fierce competition. Jiaodong Peninsula is a traditional advantageous market. The competition in Southwest Shandong is fierce. Shandong is still the core market that the company attaches most importance to. In the past two years, the growth rate of the northern market is fast. 3) Cost: due to the accurate bottom reading of raw materials in 20 years and the relatively low cost of raw materials in 21 years, the cost pressure in 22 years is expected to be higher than that in last year. The cost pressure has been resolved through futures hedging, improving the recovery rate of old bottles, accurate investment of expenses to Qingdao + Laoshan brand, price adjustment, structural upgrading, scale effect dilution and fixed cost. 4) Outlook: the trend of consumption upgrading remains very good, high-end demand is strong, a new round of equity incentive will be launched as soon as next year, and staff reduction, efficiency and capacity optimization will continue to be promoted.
Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) update: Wusu leads the rapid growth of various brands and plans to upgrade and optimize big cities
Wusu has strong growth momentum, all brands have achieved rapid growth, and high-end continues to advance. Under the guidance of Yangfan 27 plan, the big city plan and new channel expansion have been further optimized, and the epidemic situation and cost impact are limited. We are still optimistic about the long-term development of the company. Specifically: 1) products: in 21 years, Wusu grew by 34% as a whole, 60% outside Xinjiang and 36% in 1664. Brands such as Lebao and Chongqing have double-digit growth. In the future, Wusu will have more product lines, while summer fun will prefer non current drinking channels. Lebao has launched two new products this year, and will not consider introducing new brands such as alcohol free beer and fruit beer to extend and upgrade the original brands. 2) Market: it is planned to add 15 big cities in 22 years. For different types of big cities, considering different personnel and cost inputs, the original and new big cities will be the growth points. 3) Cost: the three measures of price locking + efficiency improvement + price increase can digest the cost pressure. 4) Finance: when applying for the preferential tax rate of 15% for the western development (mainly enjoyed by Xinjiang BU), the company will continue to invest the sales expenses in 22 years according to the market conditions, and the management expense rate will remain stable as a whole. 5) Outlook: the impact of the epidemic is expected to be short, Yangfan 27 will continue to Yangfan 22, and the big city plan and new channel expansion will be further optimized.
Investment suggestions: pay attention to the repair opportunities of the beer sector after the epidemic, the continuation of the high-end upgrading trend of the beer industry, the 22-year profit margin improvement brought by the price increase and the optimization of the industry pattern. The recent epidemic has repeatedly affected the demand, resulting in the correction of the sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the repair opportunities of the beer sector after the epidemic, and it is recommended to pay attention to Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) etc.
II. [food sector]: the epidemic affects market sentiment and pays attention to multi factor improvement opportunities
Plate review: the sector fell this week, and the epidemic affected the short-term performance of some sectors
Plate gain: April 6th ~4 8, food processing sector fell 3.94%, of which condiment sector fell 4.27%, dairy sector fell 1.60%, meat sector fell 3.97%, the food composite sector fell 4.03%.
The rise and fall of individual stocks: Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) (+ 11.12%), Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 5.06%), Henan Kedi Dairy Co.Ltd(002770) (+ 4.41%) ranked among the top three in the sector. All targets in the meat products sector fell, among which Longda food (- 1.36%) fell slightly; In the condiment sector, Lotus Health Group Company(600186) (0.00%), Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) (- 2.87%) and Zhongjing Food Co.Ltd(300908) (- 3.11%) decreased slightly; In the dairy sector, St Cody (4.41%) led the rise, while Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (- 1.02%) and Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429) (- 2.78%) fell slightly; In the comprehensive food sector, Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) (+ 11.12%), Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 5.06%), Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) (+ 1.03%) led the increase.
This week’s view: the performance of mass products is expected to be under pressure in 22q1. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the sector opportunities brought by the multi factor improvement of 22q2!
At present, it is in the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of the annual report. We believe that due to the short-term impact of the rising cost + epidemic on demand and supply, the performance of Volkswagen product 22q1 is expected to be under pressure, and we pay attention to the opportunities of segment brought by subsequent multi factor improvement.
In the face of the repeated impact of the epidemic on the demand side and the pressure of rising industry costs, it is expected that the performance of 22q1 in the mass products sector will continue to be under pressure. We still believe that dairy leaders with relatively stable demand and continuous improvement of profitability have certain allocation opportunities, mainly due to:
1) under the background of slow overall recovery of demand, the demand for just needed products is more stable, so the required consumer goods are better than the optional consumer goods; At the same time, considering the slowing competition and improved profitability of the dairy industry, the dairy sector has certain allocation opportunities.
2) from the perspective of anti inflation, the current macro-economy has stagflation expectations. Therefore, in terms of target selection, priority can be given to Baima leader, such as Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Mengniu Dairy and Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) .
In the face of 22q2, we need to focus on and track the improvement of multiple factors (epidemic resolution, demand recovery and cost pressure reduction) mentioned earlier. Here, we focus on the leisure snack sector, frozen baking sector and some individual stock targets with obvious improvement opportunities in 22q2!
Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) : join the group meal with two arrows at the same time, with high performance and long-term growth
The company released its performance in 2021: in 2021, the company realized a revenue of 1.375 billion yuan (+ 41.06%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 314 million yuan (+ 78.92%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 152 million yuan (+ 18.01%). In 2021, the sales of franchise stores / Direct stores / group meals of the company were 1.121 billion yuan (+ 42.28%) / 26 million yuan (+ 109.49%) / 215 million yuan (64.76%) / 13 million yuan (- 4.73%), of which the franchise stores with high revenue achieved steady growth; The group meal business with strong potential has achieved high income growth. It is worth mentioning that the income of single stores in East China has recovered to the excellent level of 17 years, mainly because the company has promoted the income of stores by means of takeout development + expanding lunch and dinner + extending operation period + store upgrading: 1) among 3000 + stores in East China, 50% of stores have carried out takeout business, which has driven the income of single stores by about 6%; 2) The annual price adjustment has a pull of about 1% on income; 3) About 80% of the upgrading of the 3rd generation stores started in 17 years has been completed. Central China: the company has rapidly promoted the business layout of the company in the central China market through the acquisition of “Haolike” and “zaoyidian”, and the M & a project has been completed in March 2022.
We believe that 2022: 1) new chapter of endogenous epitaxial spectrum, and the number of stores may exceed expectations; 2）
