Key investment points
General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: the inflection point of property insurance boom is established, and attention is paid to the catalysis of real estate policy end repair to sector valuation repair. Affected by the high base of the same period and the spread of the epidemic all over the country, the debt side of 1q22 listed insurance companies performed poorly, which basically met the previous low market expectations. Under the joint influence of the dislocation of the Spring Festival and the high base, the average value of 1q22 listed insurance companies is expected to decline by more than 25%, and Guoshou and Ping An are slightly better than their peers. In terms of property insurance, the basic trend is good, which is significantly better than life insurance. The inflection point of premium growth in the industry has reached. The volume and price of auto insurance premiums in 1q22 single quarter are expected to maintain a double-digit rapid recovery growth of 10% + and the comprehensive cost rate of PICC auto insurance is expected to remain within 98% due to the benign competition in the industry and the strength of market fee rate after flood. Since March, the real estate sector has shown signs of strength, which is expected to alleviate the market's concerns about the asset quality of domestic insurance enterprises. Soochow Bank of Africa's recommended sectors: securities, insurance, recommended stock combinations [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) the central bank solicits public opinions on the draft of the financial stability Law: the draft clearly establishes the financial stability guarantee fund, which solves the problem of the source of funds in the disposal process of problem institutions, which can not only protect the interests of relevant creditors to the greatest extent, but also reduce the resource consumption of the public sector and taxpayers. At the same time, it can effectively alleviate the handling problems of creditor's rights and debts involved in the handling process of problem institutions, help to realize the procedural and marketization of the handling process, and control the adverse effects to a minimum. 2) The CBRC requires banking and insurance services to comprehensively promote the key work of Rural Revitalization: after new citizens enter the city, they have a strong demand for housing loans, entrepreneurial loans and other financial services. At present, there are no insurance products specifically for new citizens in the market, and the products and services are generally lack of pertinence. Facing the blue ocean of financial services for 300 million new citizens, the insurance industry should continue to improve products and services, accelerate innovation and provide insurance protection. It should be said that the insurance industry will also usher in its own development opportunities in enhancing insurance functions, serving rural revitalization and meeting the financial and insurance needs of new citizens.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is less than expected; 2) Policy tightening inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.