Market review this week:
CITIC coal index closed at 316242 points, up 0.9%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.96pct, ranking seventh in the list of gains and losses of CITIC primary sector.
Analysis of key areas:
Power coal: the off-season has come, and the coal price fluctuates widely. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of port q5500 was about 12501300 yuan / ton, and the weekly ring ratio was basically the same (up first and then down). In terms of origin, the overall supply of coal mines increased slightly this week; Among them, the epidemic situation in some areas of Shanxi is severe, some coal mines have stopped production and reduced production due to epidemic control, and some coal mines have passively reduced production due to blocked shipment; Shaanxi coal mine production is limited due to the continuous impact of safety and environmental protection inspection; Inner Mongolia released the coal management ticket at the beginning of this month, and the output recovered rapidly. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for electricity is weak, and the wait-and-see mood is getting stronger in the off-season. Platforms and traders suspend procurement. The coal market is mainly rigid procurement such as chemical power plants, while the automobile transportation is blocked. The inventory pressure of some coal mines increases and the price is under pressure. In terms of ports, the transfer in volume continued to decline due to the postponement of procurement by origin platforms and traders. Affected by the warmer weather, severe epidemic and other factors, the demand for electricity is weak, the downstream procurement slows down, and the transfer out volume continues to decline; However, considering that the rigid demand for replenishment still exists, the northward transportation continues, and the reduction is not obvious. On the whole, the transfer out is less than the transfer in, and the inventory of Beigang continues to increase, but it is still at a low level year-on-year. The function of the reservoir is poor, and the available resources are still tight. In the downstream, the temperature rose, the epidemic disturbance, the daily consumption continued to fall, and the inventory picked up. This week, the temperature in various places gradually increased, the epidemic situation was severe, which affected the decline of industrial power demand, and some power plants began spring maintenance one after another, the daily consumption of power plants continued to decrease, and the inventory of power plants continued to rise. In terms of imports, with certain progress made in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, global concerns about the interruption of Russian energy supply have eased; Superimposed on the cooling of sentiment in China’s coal market, the purchase demand has weakened, and the high price of international thermal coal has been reduced. On the whole, the shipping port of origin still maintained a profit of 100200 yuan / ton, resulting in a high level of port transfer in. With the end of the heating season and the increase of policy regulation, the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality, the demand for terminal procurement slows down, and the coal price operates weakly and stably. However, the epidemic will affect the transportation efficiency. In addition, the spring maintenance of Daqin line will be started on May 1, and the transfer in amount of coastal domestic trade coal will fall passively and periodically again. At the same time, at present, the imported coal is obviously upside down again, and the import volume will be reduced again, thus forming a certain support for the price of coastal domestic trade coal. If the problem of low inventory along the coast can not be solved, even in the off-season, the coal price will rise again after the periodic decline, maintaining the view that the coal price in the off-season will fluctuate in a wide range of 12001900 yuan / ton.
Coking coal: supply decreases and demand increases, and the market is strong. This week, downstream coke steel enterprises still focus on active procurement, and the coking coal market is relatively strong. As of Friday, the Shanxi main coke of Jingtang Port had closed at 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. This week, the epidemic situation in some areas of Shanxi was severe. Some coal mines stopped production and reduced production due to epidemic control, and the supply of coking coal decreased. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, the epidemic situation has gradually eased. Affected by the sentiment of China’s coking coal market, traders have high enthusiasm for transportation, and the overall customs clearance volume has increased. According to sxcoal data, the customs clearance this week (4.4-4.7) lasted for three days, with an average of 209 vehicles per day, an increase of 15 vehicles per day compared with the same period last week. Recently, the enthusiasm for transportation has increased, driving the rise of short-term freight. The transaction of some Mongolian 5 resources has risen to about 2500 yuan / ton. On the demand side, the downstream market has a strong demand for supplementary storage of raw coal. However, the epidemic situation in some areas of Shanxi is severe, and the trans provincial transportation of raw coal is still hindered. Some coke steel enterprises passively reduce the storage of raw coal, and the subsequent supplementary storage demand is strong. In the short term, there is still room for improvement in downstream demand. With the superposition of low inventory of coke steel enterprises and sufficient power for downstream active replenishment, the price of coking coal will rise strongly again.
Coke: the demand has increased steadily, and the coke price is expected to rise in the sixth round. This week, due to the steady recovery of demand, the coke market operated strongly; Among them, some coke enterprises in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu and other regions raised the coke price by 200 yuan / ton in the fifth round. On the supply side, coke oven start-up remained basically stable, and coke enterprises maintained high start-up driven by good profit space; The market capacity has not been fully recovered, the transportation is still limited, coupled with the shortage of railway wagons, it is difficult for some coke enterprises in the producing area to take goods, and the coke inventory in the plant has accumulated slightly, but the inventory of coke enterprises is still relatively healthy and the shipping pressure is small. On the demand side, most areas of Hebei were unsealed, local steel mills began to resume production in an orderly manner, the utilization rate of blast furnace was improved, and some steel mills began to increase storage appropriately, which increased their enthusiasm for coke procurement. However, under the influence of the epidemic, the arrival was less than expected, and the pressure to replenish storage increased. On the whole, with the easing of the epidemic and the recovery of hot metal production, there is room for coke prices to rise.
Investment strategy. At present, the window period of annual report and first quarterly report has come. Under the high coal price, the performance of relevant companies has increased significantly. Under the background of declining capital expenditure in the industry year by year, the dividend proportion is expected to increase, and the sector is looking forward to double-click. China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited room for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the central rise of coal price will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. In addition, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal, coking coal and coke prices are all global price depressions, and the upside down of prices will significantly affect China’s import volume. Even there is export arbitrage space for some varieties after processing finished products, which will form a strong support for China’s coal prices. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of “double carbon” is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Risk tip: China’s output release exceeded expectations, the downstream demand was less than expected, and the on grid electricity price was significantly reduced.
