Main points:
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.06%. The steel sector rose by 3.97%; Among the sub sectors, ordinary steel sector increased by 7.30%, and special material sector decreased by 1.50%.
Steel market: poor logistics inhibits demand and waits for the release of demand after the epidemic situation is alleviated
The epidemic has spread in many places, limiting the circulation of steel and restraining the demand for steel. The long process steel increment is expected to continue to be fulfilled, and the short process loss increment is limited. At present, the inventory pressure in the plant is beginning to appear. As of April 8, the total scrap inventory of steel mills represented by 15 parents and short processes was 882100 tons, down 1.62% from last week; The average daily arrival volume of scrap steel was 436000 tons, an increase of 2.25% over last week; The average daily consumption was 458667 tons, an increase of 2.53% over last week. Social inventory and steel mill inventory increased, with social inventory rising to 159194 million tons, an increase of 45100 tons over last week; The steel mill inventory of main varieties of steel products decreased to 6.5137 million tons, an increase of 2219 thousand tons over last week. The rising cost of raw materials and the double drop of inventory drive the high and horizontal price of steel.
Steel prices rose slightly this week. Spot prices of rebar, cold rolling and medium sector rose by 1.39%, 0.71% and 1.16% respectively, while spot prices of hot rolling fell by 1.32%. Specifically, for hot-rolled coils, the epidemic has blocked the supply of hot coils and terminal procurement, the total inventory is stable, and the market price has increased as a whole, but the driving force for price increase is still insufficient; In terms of scrap steel, the market continues to operate strongly, the transportation is blocked, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market is expected to maintain a high consolidation operation; In terms of double coke, the coking coal market operates stably, the safety inspection of coal mines in the main producing areas has not been relaxed, the commencement of coal washing plants has declined, and the supply of coking coal is limited; Coke enterprises have high production enthusiasm, the shipment situation has improved significantly, the downstream steel mills are expected to resume production, and the willingness to replenish inventory has increased significantly.
In terms of special steel, under the guidance of high-quality development policy, subdivision tracks such as pipeline and steel structure deserve attention. From the perspective of new infrastructure construction, China’s pipeline has entered the upgrading stage, the construction of rural water supply and drainage system is rough, and the construction of urban sponge pipe network is also close at hand. It is suggested to pay attention to Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , etc. As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a sector worthy of attention. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven the downstream demand for electrical steel. At present, the valuation of the sector is generally not high, and it is optimistic about the electrical steel sector for a long time. It is suggested to pay attention to Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , etc.
The price of rebar in the spot market this week was 509000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.39%; The price of hot rolled coil is 521000 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.32%; The price of cold rolled coil is 566000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.71%; The price of medium board was 525000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.16%. In the futures market, the active contract price of rebar was 501900 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.73%; The active contract price of hot rolled coil was 519500 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.33%; The active contract price of wire rod was 543800 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.88%. Myspic composite steel price index was 190.35 points, with a weekly increase of 0.43%, of which myspic long material index rose by 0.65% and myspic flat sector index rose by 0.17%.
Raw material Market: the supply of coking coal is limited, and coke is actively resumed production. As of Friday, the price of Pb powder in Australia in the spot market was 100500 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 0.50%; The price of primary metallurgical coke is 371000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0%; The price of main coking coal was 330000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.12%. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore was 918.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 0.81%; The contract coke price was 405900 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.55%; The active price of coking coal was 321400 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 0.92%. Affected by the epidemic and expected speculation, the steel market fluctuated, but the price fluctuation did not drive the transaction increment, and the market shipment was still weaker than that before the Qingming Festival. The black disk set a new high this year, supporting the continuous rise of raw material prices.
Steel supply and demand: the epidemic restrained steel demand, output recovered rapidly and slowed down the decline of inventory. In terms of steel mill inventory this week, cold rolling, hot rolling, wire rod, medium and heavy sector and rebar increased by 3.58%, 1.26%, 1.64%, 9.62% and 3.37% respectively. In terms of steel output this week, the output of cold rolling, hot rolling, medium and heavy sector and thread increased by 4.64%, 3.95%, 2.90% and 2.11% respectively, and the output of wire rod decreased by 1.03%. In recent years, the inventory of steel mills has declined rapidly due to the start-up of the “golden third” steel demand. Recently, the logistics has been affected by the epidemic. The latest factory inventory data released by China Iron and Steel Industry Association on April 7 showed that the factory inventory in late March was 166199 million tons, down 2.95% from the highest point this year, and the inventory pressure began to highlight; As of April 8, the inventory of iron and steel cooperatives in 29 key cities in China was 15.577 million tons, down 45000 tons from last week. Affected by the positive signal release of the prefix “stable” and the improvement of the epidemic situation in many places, the real estate industry has warmed up, the logistics has gradually recovered, and the demand for steel has increased steadily.
Investment advice
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the interim report and the leader of special steel in fulfilling the industry’s high vision: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Traditional field leaders + popular emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold-rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic downturn accelerated; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The demand for real estate steel fell sharply; Steel destocking process is blocked.
