\u3000\u30001. Recommended combination:
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 031 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 6011 Shenzhen Universe (Group) Co.Ltd(000023) 53 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) Shareate Tools Ltd(688257)
\u3000\u30002. Key investment points:
Construction machinery: steady growth, continued overweight, optimistic about the annual sales data exceeding expectations
Steady growth in the second quarter is expected to continue to increase, driving the prosperity of the infrastructure chain upward. In the first quarter, the proportion of special bond funds invested in infrastructure related fields reached 61.6%, an increase of 2.3pct compared with the whole year of 2021. The decline of the industry narrowed and the peak season moved back. It is still optimistic that the annual sales data is higher than expected. In March, the sales volume of excavators (including exports) was 37000, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 64%, which was due to the ultra-high base in the same period and the impact of the epidemic on the commencement of downstream projects since early March. Looking forward to the future, with the epidemic situation under control and the decline in the base number in the same period, we expect the year-on-year decline in industry sales to narrow from April, which is expected to show a backward trend in the peak season in 2020. We are optimistic that the capital construction and construction machinery sales will exceed expectations under the background of steady growth throughout the year. Recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) .
Photovoltaic equipment: Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) Jianhu phase II 10GW large silicon wafer project was launched, and the total capacity of chip foundry was increased from 35gw to 45gw Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) is the leader of slicer with a market share of more than 50%. In 2021, chip foundry was transformed, and a total capacity of 35gw was planned before. Due to the strong demand for chip foundry, it was announced on April 7 to expand the lake (phase II) 10GW large silicon wafer project. Up to now, the total capacity of chip foundry is planned to be 45gw. Jianhu phase II is expected to be put into operation in two stages in 2023 and 2024 (if the demand is strong, the production rhythm may be ahead of schedule). The supporting customers are battery chip manufacturers Runyang and Yingfa Ruineng (Trial cutting has been made before, and the customers highly recognize the delivery volume and silicon chip quality). Specialized division of labor improves the efficiency of the industrial chain, and the new business of chip OEM brings high performance flexibility. (1) For gaotest, the income source of chip OEM is OEM fee + silicon mud recovery + surplus silicon wafer sales. OEM fee + silicon mud recovery can cover the cost, and the surplus silicon wafer is profit. At present, the silicon material of the high measurement unit can be cut by 8% more than the customer, making 3% profit to the customer and 5% retention. The profit of a single GW remains high. Even considering the subsequent decline in the price of silicon wafer (historically, when the price of silicon material is low, the price of silicon wafer per W is 0.55 yuan), we conservatively expect that the profit of single GW can be maintained at more than 20 million, and the release of production capacity will bring high performance elasticity. (2) For customers, the cost of their own slicing is compared with the OEM fee. At the same time, customers can obtain 3% more silicon wafers, so the comprehensive cost of slicing under the OEM mode is lower. At the same time, OEM can help customers light asset operation. Investment suggestion: recommend Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ; Recommend Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , pay attention to Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ; Component equipment recommendation Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Recommend Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) .
General automation: short-term fluctuations under the influence of the epidemic, optimistic about the recovery of the manufacturing industry under the background of subsequent steady growth
Affected by the epidemic, the manufacturing boom is under short-term pressure. In March 2022, the PMI index closed at 49.5%, down 0.7pct from the previous month. In view of the outbreak of a new round of epidemic all over the country and the risk of real estate downturn, we are still cautious about the outlook of the manufacturing industry in the second quarter, and the subsequent easing policies need to be introduced. However, on the whole, we are still optimistic about the recovery of the manufacturing industry under the background of stable growth during the year Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . The monthly output data of machine tools remained high: from January to February, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output reached 76000 sets, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.6%. The output of metal cutting machine tools reached 90000 sets, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.2%, maintaining a high level. Investment suggestion: reducer recommendation Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ; Tool recommendations Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) , it is recommended to pay attention to Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ; Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) recommended Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ; Machine tool recommendations Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , it is recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) .
Wind power equipment: offshore wind power will become an important driving force in the industry and pay attention to leading enterprises of high-quality parts
After the reform of power market, the improvement of energy consumption capacity and the policy refund and subsidy, wind power has entered the era of parity. China’s wind power industry is expected to enter the rapid development stage driven by market demand. The development of the industry will show two characteristics: ① offshore wind power will become an important driving force for the development of wind power industry; ② The trend of large-scale wind power will continue.
Against the background of the future prosperity of wind power, it is suggested to pay attention to the parts and components with high value and high barriers: ① Tower: the consumption of single MW tower of large-scale units is almost unchanged, which is a less damaged link under the trend of large-scale. The market scale of wind power tower in China is about 67.6 billion yuan in 2020. ② In 2019, the technical barrier of bearing is about 10 billion yuan, and the bearing market value in China is about 10 billion yuan; ③ Flange: large-scale flange puts forward higher requirements for the technical and financial strength of suppliers, and the market concentration will be improved; ④ Submarine cable: in 2021, the scale of China’s wind power submarine cable market is about 15.6 billion yuan, the entry threshold of submarine cable is high, compulsory certification is required, the verification cycle is long, and the profitability is stronger than that of land cable;. ⑤ Pile foundation: high value. In 2020, the market scale of wind power pile foundation in China is about 9.7 billion yuan. Investment suggestions: focus on Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Haili wind power. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders of Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Tongyu Heavy Industy Co.Ltd(300185) , Jiangsu Lixing General Steel Ball Co.Ltd(300421) , Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co.Ltd(600458) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
Power exchange equipment: under favorable policies, the power exchange mode welcomes the rapid development, and equipment suppliers give priority to benefit
Multiple positive factors usher in the development of power exchange. On March 18, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the key points of automobile standardization in 2022. It is proposed that in terms of new energy vehicles, we will speed up the construction and improvement of the charging and replacement standard system of electric vehicles, and promote the formulation of standards for on-board power replacement system of pure electric vehicles, power replacement common platform, power replacement battery pack and so on; Carry out research and verification on the upgrading scheme of high-power charging technology for electric vehicles, and accelerate the revision and release of a series of standards such as conductive charging connection devices for electric vehicles. We expect that in 2025, more than 16000 new power exchange stations will be added, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 30 billion yuan, which will benefit the power exchange equipment manufacturers most. Investment suggestion: recommend Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , pay attention to Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Csg Smart Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300222) , Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) .
Risk warning: the downstream fixed asset investment is less than the market expectation; Cyclical fluctuations in the industry; The impact of the epidemic continues.
