Viewpoint: on Friday, the bank proposed that the repayment of individual housing loan customers affected by the epidemic can be postponed, while Chongqing Wenming confirmed and reasonably determined the first housing mortgage loan standard for new citizens who meet the purchase conditions, so as to implement the notice on strengthening financial services for new citizens issued by the central bank and China Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission on March 4. It is expected that the follow-up housing credit support is expected to be further strengthened, The accelerated release of the potential purchase demand of “new citizens” can also provide some support for the property market. In terms of investment suggestions, the current downward pressure on the industry and the capital side risk of real estate enterprises still exist. Under the background of virtuous circle and “three stabilities”, we believe that the unstable policies of the real estate market are not only persistent, but the valuation repair driven by the policy side is expected to continue. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector is mainly concerned about: one is the strong operating and high credit enterprises with relaxed short-term benefit policies and improved gross profit margin at the land acquisition end, which are expected to seize market share in the medium and long term, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , etc; One is the subject matter of policy game elasticity with certain support for Fundamentals, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc. The valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, and the downward pressure of the quarterly and mid-term guidelines of the annual report has been gradually released. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is expected to bring the valuation repair of high-quality property management enterprises, focusing on such services as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Chongqing: reasonably determine the mortgage loan standard for the first house of new citizens; 2) Hangzhou: release the 2022 state-owned construction land supply plan.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover fell month on month, and it will still be under pressure in the short term. This week (4.2-4.8), 25000 new houses were sold, down 39.4% month on month; 9000 second-hand houses were sold, down 28.3% month on month. In April, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 57% year-on-year, an increase of 13.7pct compared with March. Affected by repeated outbreaks and cautious supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in February 2022, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 1.7pct to 77.1% month on month. 3) Inventories rebounded month on month and tended to decline in the short term. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 101.21 million square meters, up 0.1% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and property market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) The land transaction and premium rate fell, and the proportion of the first and third tier increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 28.18 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 13.771 million square meters, with a month on month decrease of 35.5% and 20.3%; The transaction premium rate was 0.9%, down 3.9pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 9.5%, 26% and 64.5% respectively, with a month on month increase of 5.3pct, a decrease of 7.1pct and an increase of 1.8pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: the issuance of domestic real estate bonds this week was 1.35 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 6.69 billion yuan; Overseas bonds issued 671 million US dollars, down 310 million US dollars month on month; The issuing interest rate of key real estate enterprises ranges from 6.95% to 13%. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 630 million yuan this week, an increase of 130 million yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 1.64% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 1.06%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 11.29 times, and the valuation is in the quantile of 73.32% in recent five years. This week, the top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north are Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; The top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from southbound are China overseas development, country garden service and China Resources Land.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
