Main points:
The pharmaceutical sector rebounded last week
Last week, the pharmaceutical and biological index fell by about 3.33%, 2.27 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and 2.39 percentage points lower than the Shanghai Composite Index. The industry ranked 23rd in terms of rise and fall. As of Friday (April 8) last week, PE (TTM, excluding negative value) of the pharmaceutical industry was 27.7x, below the "mean value - 1 times standard deviation" since 2015. In the pharmaceutical level III sub industry, among the 13 sub industry sectors last week, 1 sub industry sector rose and 12 sub industry sectors fell. Hospitals were the sub industry with the largest increase, up 0.2%. Pharmaceutical circulation was the sub industry with the largest decline, down 9.8%.
The centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicines in Guangdong fell to the ground, with a moderate decline, which was beneficial to the exclusive varieties and the bid winning manufacturers
There was a big correction in medicine this week, especially the sharp decline of growth stocks on Thursday and Friday, and some medicine track stocks and white horse stocks hit new lows. At present, there is no clear theme in the pharmaceutical sector. The theme of covid-19 is highly differentiated and continues to retreat sharply this week.
This week's major event is the quotation and bid opening of centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicines in Guangdong Province, which is the second alliance after Hubei alliance to carry out centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicines, and also opens a precedent for centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicines. The two alliances, one before and one after, formulate rules in combination with the characteristics of varieties and regions, overcome some difficulties in the centralized collection of Chinese patent medicines, and explore the way of centralized collection of Chinese patent medicines. In terms of results, the two major leagues announced (proposed) the results of the election in December 2021 and April 2022 respectively. The average decline in Hubei was 42%, and the winning rate was 62%; Compared with the highest bidding price, Guangdong's average decline is 56% (nominal decline, the actual decline may be smaller), the bid winning rate is about 54%, and the average decline of exclusive products is 17%. The decline of exclusive varieties was moderate. After the implementation of centralized mining in Guangdong, the elimination of factors that suppress the stock price of traditional Chinese medicine in the short term will be better than exclusive varieties and bid winning varieties. We choose companies according to our previous investment logic of traditional Chinese medicine (innovative traditional Chinese Medicine - representing exclusive; famous brand OTC - price can be raised outside the hospital), which has been continuously verified by the market.
Combined with the macro uncertainty (the turmoil of the Russian Ukrainian war, the increase of US inflation and interest rates, the occurrence of the epidemic, etc.), standing at the market point of fundamentals and capital structure, the centralized procurement policy has continued to be implemented this year (centralized procurement of consumables, national procurement, alliance procurement, etc.). In addition, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and the valuations of many pharmaceutical companies have reached a very reasonable range, However, the uncertainty of policy changes makes many investors unable to start. The PE · ttm36x of Pharmaceutical (CITIC) on April 10 has been a reasonable range downstream of the valuation center of pharmaceutical history, and medicine has a strong investment value.
We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream (autonomous and controllable) + looking for the target from bottom to top in other directions. In addition, covid-19 small molecular medicine has contributed enough flexible performance to cdmo company. It is suggested to pay attention to the subject matters such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and so on.
We suggest the following investment ideas:
(1) a traditional Chinese medicine sector (with a brand name and a noble OTC plus an innovative traditional Chinese medicine for which the brand is a precious and precious, and the brand ''Brand plus a traditional Chinese Medicine Innovation): a traditional Chinese medicine sector (1) a traditional Chinese medicine sector (a traditional Chinese Medicine for the brand', a traditional Chinese medicine sector (for the brand, the brand, and the brand, and the precious, and the brand, the OTC plus plus the brand, the brand, the precious, and the brand, the brand, the precious, and the OTC plus plus plus plus the brand '' '' '''plus the brand '' '' '' (or the brand '' '''plus plus plus plus the precious, and the brand '''Brand, and the brand '' ''plus plus plus the precious, and the brand' '' ''Brand, and the OTC + plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus the brand' '' '' '' '' '' '''s precious OTC plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus and other subjects are also recommended for attention: Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , Hunan Fangsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603998) , Teyi Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002728) , Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002275) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) and other subjects
(2) traditional Chinese medicine treatment service: gushengtang (the leading pioneer of traditional Chinese medicine treatment service, with the same wind PE of 20x in 2023);
(3) medical infrastructure sector: we recommend to focus on the medical infrastructure sector: medical infrastructure sector: medical infrastructure sector: we recommend to focus on the medical infrastructure sector: we recommend to focus on the Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , Autobio Diagnostics Co.Ltd(603658) , Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co.Ltd(688389) , Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) , Tellgen Corporation(300642) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , etc, IVD enterprises play an important role in epidemic prevention and control (antibodies, antigens and nucleic acid detection reagents), which provides sufficient funds for the development of the company in the future.
4) scientific research reagents and upstream: scientific research reagents and scientific research reagents and upstream: scientific research reagents and scientific research reagents and upstream: we propose to focus on Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Nanmo biology, etc.
(5) other bottom-up sectors and companies need to be analyzed according to the subject matter and valuation of industries and companies, and it is proposed to pay attention to Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , Medprin Regenerative Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(301033) and other subjects of regenerative medicine; In the medical service sector, we recommend haijiya and gushengtang, which are cost-effective and expansible. We suggest paying attention to Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chaoju Ophthalmology, Jinxin reproduction, etc; Recommend Baicheng pharmaceutical and Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) , generic cro and traditional Chinese medicine cro with good performance; Biological products and vaccines need continuous attention. We recommend Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) , and Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , etc; For household medical devices, it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) .
(6) for the innovative drug sector, it is suggested to pay attention to the innovative drug targets with international ability. We suggest to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Hehuang medicine, kangfang biology, China biopharmaceutical, etc.
New report issued last week
Company depth Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) ( Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) ): "domestic puncture and injection leading enterprises, product upgrading and accelerated growth"; In depth Jinxin reproduction (1951. HK): International assisted reproduction leader with obvious first mover advantage; Company depth Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.Ltd(300453) ( Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.Ltd(300453) ): deepening domestic substitution of hemodialysis equipment and increasing contribution of vaccine syringes; The company's in-depth Baicheng Pharmaceutical (301096): "pharmaceutical + clinical" comprehensive cro follows the waves and highlights the growth attribute; Company depth Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) ( Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) ): "deep cultivation of generic drug cro integration and expansion of innovative drug cro territory"; Company comments Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) ( Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) ): the application for listing of blister vaccine has been accepted, and there is a large potential market space.
Performance of individual stocks last week: most A-shares increased, while most Hong Kong stocks fell
Last week, 52 of the 432 A-share pharmaceutical and biological stocks rose, accounting for 12%. The top ten medicine stocks that rose in the last week of last week last week last week last week are the medicine stocks that are among the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the medicine stocks that rose in the last week of the last week of the last week of the last week last week. The medicine stocks that were among the top ten of the top ten of the last week of the last week last week last week: the medicine stocks that were among the top ten of the top ten of the top ten of the last week of the last week of the last week of the last week of last week last week last week last week last week are: Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) 96 Silvery Dragon Prestressed Materials Co.Ltd Tianjin(603969) 63, which is the (+ 10.17%), Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) (+ 9.75%), Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) (+ 8.95%), Zhejiang Hisoar Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002099) (+ 6.23%); The pharmaceutical stocks with the top ten medicine stocks that fell in the last week of the last week last week last week before the last week'last week are: Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients Corp(002166) (- 13.37%), Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co.Ltd(601607) (- 13.02%), Pku Healthcare Corp.Ltd(000788) (- 12.34%). Last week, 46 of the 88 Hong Kong stocks rose, accounting for 52%.
Global covid-19 epidemic situation and vaccination
Global new cases continued to decline; Shanghai, Jilin, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian and other places. The number of vaccinations continued to grow, with the global average whole course vaccination rate of about 58% and the whole course vaccination rate of about 86% in China.
Risk tips
Policy risk, competition risk, abnormal stock price fluctuation risk.
