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Multiple factors push up the attention of power battery. 2021 is a year of soaring sales of new energy vehicles; It is also a year of significant changes in the price of raw materials required for the production of batteries such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and phosphorus; At the same time, if 2015 is taken as the beginning of the rapid marketization of new energy vehicles, it is calculated according to the service life of power batteries for 5-8 years, which is also the year when the trend of power battery retirement is gradually coming.
The market's attention to power battery recycling has increased rapidly, resulting in the rapid growth of the number of power battery recycling related enterprises. According to the statistics of enterprise investigation, there are 40600 power battery recycling related enterprises in China, of which 24400 were newly registered in 2021, accounting for 60% of the total.
However, the number of enterprises that meet the comprehensive utilization specifications of power batteries accounts for very little. According to the list of enterprises in the industry standard conditions for comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries of new energy vehicles published in the third batch of the Ministry of industry and information technology, there are only 47 enterprises that meet the industry standard conditions, of which 8 enterprises meet the standard requirements of cascade utilization and recycling at the same time, 16 enterprises only meet the standard requirements of recycling, and 23 enterprises only meet the standard requirements of cascade utilization. The total number of enterprises in the three batches is 47, accounting for less than 1.2 ‰ of the total 40600.
It is estimated that the tide of power battery decommissioning has started, and the annual new decommissioning volume of power battery has increased rapidly. It is estimated that in 2026, the newly decommissioned power battery will be close to 70gwh, and the cumulative decommissioned power battery will exceed 230gwh; Assuming that the average energy density of power batteries is 160wh / kg, the cumulative decommissioned power batteries in 2026 will be nearly 1.5 million tons.
The proportion of newly decommissioned power batteries to the installed capacity of power batteries continues to increase, and the recovery of power batteries is expected to become one of the important sources of battery raw materials. According to the penetration growth target of new energy vehicles planned in the roadmap of energy conservation and new energy technology, we estimated the sales volume of new energy vehicles from 2022 to 2026, and then estimated the installed capacity of power batteries. It is found that the ratio of newly added decommissioned power batteries to the installed capacity of power batteries continued to increase in. By 2026, retired power batteries can account for more than 20% of the installed capacity of power batteries in that year. It can be seen that power battery recycling is expected to become one of the important sources of battery raw materials.
Investment strategy: due to the influence of many factors, the attention of power battery recycling continues to increase. In view of the relatively small number of qualified enterprises in the market and the large number of newly registered enterprises related to power battery recycling, it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises that have been deeply cultivated for many years and have certain technology accumulation and industrial chain layout, such as Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) , etc.
Risk tip: the development of new energy vehicle market is less than expected, the implementation of battery recycling policy is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, etc.
Market review:
Last week, Shenwan environmental protection sector rose or fell - 1.54%, ranking 18 / 31 in Shenwan level industry.
In terms of comprehensive treatment of water, solid waste and environmental protection, the increase rate was - 1.03% and - 2.2% respectively, with the increase of - 1.03% and - 2.03% respectively.
In terms of subdivided industries, referring to the level III index of Yangtze River environmental protection, the subdivided industries with small decreases are water saving (4.17%), water operation (4.04%) and atmospheric treatment (1.85%); The industries with large decline include biomass (- 3.15%), energy saving (- 3.32%) and industrial wastewater (- 4.44%).
