Gold: FOMC’s partial Eagle speech did not change, the gold price was strong, the situation between Russia and Ukraine was deadlocked, and the gold price remained high and volatile. ① Nominal interest rate: the minutes of FOMC interest rate meeting were released within the week. Most participants believed that the inflation pressure was rising, the contraction of the table could be carried out as soon as may, the interest rate increase would be faster, and the interest rate may be increased by 50bp for many times. After the release of the minutes, the 10Y US bond interest rate and the US dollar index rose strongly, with a cumulative rise of 33bp to 2.72% during the week. Gold showed resistance to decline between inflation support and interest rate increase cycle, superimposed with the support of risk aversion under the stalemate between Russia and Ukraine. The current US non farm & initial application data reflect that the job market is relatively optimistic. On the whole, the data still point to the sustained high inflation in the short term and the more radical interest rate increase policy in the long term; ② Inflation expectation: under the background of IEA reserve selling, the oil price gradually cooled down, and the implied inflation expectation fell to 2.88% from the high of 2.94% in mid March, with a slight increase of 8bp during the week. On the whole, the strong upward trend of 10Y US bond interest rate led to the rise of real interest rate by 25bp to – 0.16% in the week, up 43bp compared with that since the outbreak of the special military action between Russia and Ukraine, while gold showed relative resistance to decline. The “decoupling” between the short-term Fed monetary policy and the gold price reflected the market’s concern about the future economic situation and distrust of the credit of the US dollar under the background of inflation and geopolitical crisis. The gold price has a long-term upward momentum. It is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , etc.
Base metals: poor logistics and tight spot circulation support high prices; Steady growth improves the expectation of copper and aluminum demand. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the PMI data of Europe and the United States in March exceeded expectations. During the week, the US FOMC interest rate meeting continued to release hawkish interest rate increase and table contraction signals, the US index and 10Y US bonds accelerated upward, and the copper price was under pressure; ② In terms of supply, 70% of China’s electrolytic copper trade volume and inventory are concentrated in Shanghai, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the concentration of China’s copper processing. The difficulty of delivery in Shanghai has led to the accumulation of inventory in the warehouse. At the same time, the scope of factory shortage, production reduction and shutdown in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has expanded, and the tight cash flow has led to the rapid rise of discount quotation. Shanghai’s import port is congested with ships, and imports are slow, which is also difficult to replenish China’s supply; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper inventory increased by 27000 tons to 571600 tons on a weekly basis, China’s social inventory increased by 7100 tons, the bonded area increased by 9000 tons, and LME inventory increased by 9800 tons. The epidemic affected China’s cumulative inventory. The expansion of the scope of production reduction and shutdown of downstream enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to drag down the overall market consumption. In order to maintain production and ensure order delivery, some enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are forced to accept high water spot, which makes it difficult to transfer costs effectively. At the same time, downstream factories also need to face the pressure of rising transportation costs and rising copper prices. At present, the copper price is in the contradiction between weak consumption and high spot price. It is expected that the tight situation of circulation spot caused by short-term logistics will effectively support the copper price to maintain a high level; (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: 14200 tons to 953400 tons went to the stock exchange on Wednesday, including 20200 tons to 615800 tons of LME inventory in a single week, and 16000 tons to 307400 tons of SHFE inventory in a single week. China’s social pool accumulated 12700 tons to 1081800 tons this week. Under the influence of the epidemic, the social pool was transformed into accumulated pool; ② Supply side: this week, the Fed’s policy was significantly biased towards hawks, and new risks were generated in Russia Ukraine relations. The overseas risk time disturbance made the aluminum market sentiment cautious, and the upward US dollar index put pressure on LME aluminum price. In China, by the end of this week, China’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity had increased by 320000 tons to 40.37 million tons. The incremental release was mainly centered on Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia and other provinces. Under the overweight of energy supply such as water storage, thermal power coal storage and hydropower station operation and power generation, concerns about energy consumption of aluminum plants were alleviated. The restoration of China’s supply capacity has an impact on the current supply and demand pattern, but it has not yet constituted a reversal of supply and demand relations; ③ Demand: this week, the epidemic continued to interfere with downstream construction and procurement. Jiangsu, one of the mainstream consumer provinces, was significantly affected. The obstruction of material transportation led to the failure of goods to arrive on time, resulting in a slight squeeze on the inventory at the processing end and the risk of downstream order delay. China’s Social Library accumulated a small amount of inventory against the season. When there is a demand for reducing storage in the middle reaches, the peak of construction in April may move back. A person who is a person who is a person who is a person to to a person to a person for an article to a person to to a person to a person to to a person to a person to to a person to to a person to to a person to to a person to to a person to to a person to to an a a a a to to to to to to to to a person to to an a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a person to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to a to to to a to a a to a to to a to a to a to a to a to to a to a to a to a to a to a to a to a to a to to a to a to a to a to to a to a to a to to a to a to a to a to a to a to a to a to a to a a, .
Energy metals: the rise in raw material prices squeezed the profits of the salt plant, and the purchasing season in late April may come or welcome improvement. (1) Lithium: during the week, the prices of electric carbon and hydrogen were flat at 517400 yuan / ton and 497300 yuan / ton respectively. There was a strong wait-and-see mood in the lithium salt market, and the prices have continued to consolidate since March. The epidemic affected the port trade and hindered the transportation of lithium concentrate. The price of raw materials and auxiliary materials soared, and the cost of lithium salt plant increased; (2) Nickel: nickel sulfate rose 0.51% to 49500 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel rose 11000 yuan / ton to 59000 yuan / ton this week. The price of pure nickel and the price of nickel sulfate are upside down, which reduces the production enthusiasm of nickel sulfate manufacturers, the demand for production reduction of precursor plants is weak, and the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel is lower than the previous high. (3) Cobalt: cobalt sulfate fell 2.47% to 118500 yuan / ton in the week, and the price of MB cobalt remained stable at 39.35 US dollars / pound in the week. Cobalt prices fell inside and rose outside, the prices of imported intermediate raw materials were high, and the profits of cobalt processing and production fell. After excluding cobalt raw materials, the profit space of cobalt sulfate processing fell 39.58% to 20300 yuan / ton in the week. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the logistics is blocked, the downstream operating rate is reduced, the demand is weak, and the orders are sporadic. Under the dual weakness of supply and demand, the price of cobalt sulfate decreases slightly Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) Xtc New Energy Materials(Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) 。
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
