This week’s view
Steel industry: focus on the rhythm of demand recovery in the second quarter
The increase of steel prices expanded. As of April 8, thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling, wire rod and welded pipe reported 5178 yuan / ton, 5426 yuan / ton, 5369 yuan / ton, 5801 yuan / ton, 5463 yuan / ton and 5508 yuan / ton respectively this week, with a weekly increase of 1.99%, 1.48%, 1.07%, 0.75%, 1.98% and 0.79% respectively.
The gross profit per ton of steel has narrowed. Referring to the inventory cycle of raw materials, the gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling, wire rod and welded pipe was 388 yuan, 636 yuan, 479 yuan, 361 yuan, 673 yuan and 418 yuan respectively, down 437 yuan, 459 yuan, 481 yuan, 495 yuan, 432 yuan and 495 yuan compared with last week.
In the short term, the epidemic affected both supply and demand of the national steel market. Affected by the epidemic factors, the shipment of steel mills in some areas was blocked. However, with the gradual easing of the epidemic in the later stage, the steel price picked up and the profit was OK. It is expected that the output will continue to pick up in the later stage. In terms of demand, the impact of the political epidemic is still continuing. With the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic prevention and control, the delayed demand in the early stage is expected to usher in a centralized release, and the inventory may continue to be removed.
As the main focus of stabilizing the economy, in the field of infrastructure construction, water conservancy and municipal pipe network have been clearly reflected at the policy level. It is expected that with the end of the two sessions and the centralized bid opening and construction in various places, the pipeline demand is expected to be released in large quantities. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
For high-grade non oriented silicon steel, the government work report said that it would continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the demand for non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles is expected to continue to maintain high growth. The supply side release is limited, and the profit of high-end silicon steel is expected to continue to break out this year. Attach importance to enterprises with high grade non oriented silicon steel production capacity. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (20212023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
Focus on the subject
Industrial sector companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) .
Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) .
Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) .
Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509) .
Nonferrous Metals Industry: superimposed on the repeated covid-19 epidemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the market is pessimistic about the downstream demand, the short-term spot price surges and falls, the supply release is limited in the medium and long term, and the price is expected to remain high and stable
In the lithium sector, spodumene was quoted at US $2840 / ton this week, up 1.07% from last week; The quotation of lithium hydroxide is 491500 yuan / ton, the same as last week; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 501500 yuan / ton, down 0.20%. The prices of rare earth oxide and terbium oxide were RMB – 1.689 million and – 3.89 million tons / week, respectively.
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future, we are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency, energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era.
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices rose 0.82% this week to close at 73760 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price fell – 3.60% to close at 21825 yuan / ton. In March, China’s peak demand season came, but the downstream construction was obviously affected by the epidemic, the logistics was blocked, the trading of bulk commodities and processed products was relatively cold, and the inventory rebounded slightly; However, the poor reality may indicate a more proactive steady growth policy.
In terms of copper, the market demand fell sharply this week. Due to logistics and transportation problems, the main copper rod factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang could not enter the factory and the finished products could not leave the factory. Many enterprises chose to reduce production or even stop production. Copper inventories increased by 35000 tons in the previous period this week, rising slightly. In March, China’s economy was greatly affected by the epidemic factors, and the manufacturing PMI fell sharply, only 49.5%; PMI in Europe and the United States also decreased significantly, but it is still in the expansion range. At present, the global inventory is still at a historically low position, and the epidemic will eventually pass, and some of the missing demand will be transferred to the future. Therefore, the market has strong expectations for the improvement of demand in the second quarter. Although the Fed has raised interest rates, it has little impact on the real economy in the early stage of raising interest rates. We believe that there is still room for upward copper prices in the medium term.
In terms of aluminum, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in March was 40.073 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons compared with the end of February. The process of electrolytic aluminum supply and resumption of production has been more than half. According to Mysteel’s report this week, the epidemic has caused logistics obstruction, a large number of aluminum processing stops in Henan, automobile transportation obstruction in Wuxi, and the warehouse is unable to pick up the goods, resulting in an increase of 13000 tons in China’s electrolytic aluminum spot inventory this week. At present, picking up the goods in Wuxi is gradually recovering. With the recovery of the follow-up epidemic, the steady growth drives the relevant downstream demand, and the worst time point of supply and demand in the whole year is about to pass. This week, the average profit of China’s simulated electrolytic aluminum industry was 4390 yuan / ton. The electricity price and anode price rose, and the profit fell, but it is still at a high level. The sustainability of the profit of electrolytic aluminum may exceed the market expectation.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 92 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) 6 Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) 01 Founder Technology Group Co.Ltd(600601) 899 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
