Longji / Jingke / Trina Solar / Tongwei / atlas / Risheng / aixu and other old enterprises are overweight, and the production of TOPCON / HPBC / hjt high-efficiency technology is expanded and accelerated. In 2021, affected by the price rise of polysilicon and other raw materials and the uncertain route of new battery technology, the production expansion speed of photovoltaic cells in that year obviously lagged behind that of silicon wafers and modules. In 2022, integrated manufacturers have invested heavily in their promising technical routes because of weak production capacity to fill the shortage and seize the opportunity of new technologies.
Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) : make use of the excellent performance of its own p-type silicon wafer and invest heavily in overweight HPBC. On January 24, 2022, the EIA information of Taizhou Longji Leye single crystal battery project with an annual output of 4gw under Longji disclosed that Longji plans to upgrade and transform the production line on the basis of Taizhou Longji’s original single crystal battery project with an annual output of 2gw, and transform it into 8 HPBC high-efficiency single crystal battery production lines and auxiliary equipment, which is expected to form a battery chip production line with an annual output of 4gw. On March 13, Longji announced that it planned to expand the production of 20GW silicon wafers, 30GW batteries and 5GW components in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) with a total investment of 19.5 billion yuan, and the project was officially started on April 8. In addition, Longji has plans to expand the production of high-efficiency batteries in Xixian, Shaanxi and Qujing, Yunnan. HPBC is a p-type IBC, which superimposes the tunneling oxide layer structure owned by TOPCON (using LPCVD) on the basis of perc battery, and realizes the crossing of electrodes through laser slotting, which puts forward higher requirements for the quality of p-type silicon wafer. We believe that whether HPBC is adopted for the subsequent expansion of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) and Qujing depends on the final data of HPBC in the early stage.
Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) : add the ABC technical route, and the bidding and production expansion work is carried out in an orderly manner. According to aixu’s announcement on March 21, Zhuhai Fushan aixu, a subsidiary of the company, plans to purchase 16 sets of wet process equipment from Zhuhai max (aixu’s affiliated company), with a contract amount of 86.08 million yuan, indicating that the company’s ABC technology is in orderly progress.
Jingke energy: TOPCON leader, back to a listing to start a new journey. In January 2022, Anhui Jingke energy phase I 8GW new high-efficiency battery cells were put into operation. The average mass production efficiency of TOPCON battery was 24.5%, and the maximum efficiency had reached 25.4%. In February 2022, Jingke energy efficient n-type battery project was successfully offline in Haining base to further strengthen its own n-type battery layout. Meanwhile, the company plans to invest 10.8 billion yuan in Shangrao City to build 24gw high-efficiency photovoltaic modules and 100000 tons of photovoltaic module aluminum profile project. After the project is put into operation, the production capacity of the company’s n-type high-efficiency components will be further improved.
Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) : Suqian 8gwtopcon project is expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year. Trina Solar has deployed TOPCON battery research and development since 2015. Through six years of technology accumulation and breakthrough, Trina Solar successfully realized the 210mm battery independently developed in March this year × The maximum battery efficiency of 210mm high-efficiency i-topcon battery reached 25.5%, creating a new world record for the efficiency of large-scale industrialized n-type monocrystalline silicon TOPCON battery. Since the realization of technology industrialization in 2018, the company has accumulated more than 4 years of experience in TOPCON battery pilot test line. The mass production conversion efficiency of 210 large-scale TOPCON pilot test line has exceeded 24.5% and can reach 25.5% at most. On April 8, Trina Solar held a kick-off meeting for Suqian 8gwtopcon battery project, and TOPCON is expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year.
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) : 32gw high-efficiency battery production expansion is started, and 16GW will be put into operation by the end of 23. According to Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) announcement, the company plans to invest in the construction of 32gw high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project in Meishan. The project will be implemented in two phases, with a total investment of 12 billion yuan. Among them, the investment of phase I 16GW battery project is about 6 billion yuan, and strive to be put into operation before the end of December 2023. Phase II 16GW battery project will be started at an appropriate time according to the agreement. Previously, Tongwei has hjt capacity in Jintang and Hefei, and has also built a TOPCON pilot line in Meishan. This expansion is also expected to strengthen efficient technical capacity.
Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) / Atlas: old players increase hjt capacity. According to Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) WeChat official account, the company launched the invitation for inviting batteries and components of 15GW heterojunction project in March 3rd. At the same time, the company released the new “Fu Xi” HJT battery in March 29th, and achieved 25.2% efficiency by adopting 210 heterojunction half 120 micron and microcrystal technology. According to the atlas n-type photovoltaic technology innovation forum, Atlas is planning to launch 210topcon module products for large ground power stations and 182hjt module products for roof scenes.
High efficiency battery technology has brought about equipment renewal and increased investment, and key equipment manufacturers are leading the way. “Next generation technology, next generation process and next generation equipment”. The endogenous lcoe of photovoltaic reduces the demand and continuously promotes the iteration of power generation technology. Therefore, unlike other special aircraft equipment industries, the replacement speed of photovoltaic equipment is much faster than its own depreciation cycle. According to solarzoom’s statistics, the cost of silicon, silver paste, target and other materials accounts for 79% and 84% of perc and hjt costs respectively, and the depreciation of equipment accounts for only 3% and 5%; At the same time, every 1% increase in conversion efficiency corresponds to a decrease of more than 5% in lcoe. Therefore, when the new equipment carrying the new process makes a significant contribution to cost reduction (silicon material, silver slurry, target, etc.) or efficiency improvement (conversion efficiency), its single GW investment can be appropriately increased (similar to price increase), driving the synchronous improvement of market space and profitability of new equipment.
Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) : the faucet of series welding machine, and the technical advantages of TOPCON / hjt / HPBC continue. At present, the company’s high-precision smbb series welding machine is shipped to Jingke / Huasheng (respectively one of the largest projects of TOPCON and hjt expansion). There is no dispute over its own equipment. In 2015, the company launched IBC series welding machine, which is expected to continue to maintain its advantages in HPBC, ABC and other technical routes.
Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) : the market share of photovoltaic laser equipment exceeds 80%, and a variety of n-type technologies such as TOPCON / hjt / IBC are arranged. The company’s IBC (HPBC and ABC) equipment includes laser slotting equipment (involving more than 2 slotting, which has obtained an order of about 300 million yuan from head customers) and laser transfer equipment; TOPCON equipment includes laser se boron doping (key equipment for improving efficiency, and the order progress depends on the economic improvement of the equipment), film opening, special slurry slotting (conflict with laser transfer), laser transfer, etc; Hjt equipment includes laser repair passivation equipment (LIA equipment) and laser transfer equipment; In addition, the company also arranges micropores, scribing and other equipment in the component link. Among them, laser transfer is applicable to all links, which is expected to speed up and efficient technology, save silver and improve efficiency.
Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) : the market share of hjt’s whole line equipment is about 70%, and hjt is one of the equipment manufacturers with the highest elasticity after parity. As a heterojunction battery technology, hjt is different from the homogeneous junction battery technologies such as perc, TOPCON and IBC. The preparation steps are simple, and there is a wide space for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the future. The company’s investment in a single GW of the whole hjt line is about 10 times higher than that of the company’s traditional silk screen printing business, and it takes only one year from the establishment of hjt to shipment. It has leading R & D efficiency and execution ability, and is expected to benefit from the cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt in 22 years.
Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) : hjt takes the lead in the research and development of half bar and sheet cutting, which is expected to benefit from the rhythm of hjt parity. Half bar wafer is an important step to reduce the cost of hjt silicon wafer and improve the production yield. In October, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Aikang. The two sides will gradually implement the cost reduction path of heterojunction n-type large-size silicon wafer thickness from 150 microns to 120 microns and 90 microns by building an n-type silicon wafer laboratory. With the continuous progress of hjt sheet cutting technology, the enterprises that currently layout hjt production capacity are expected to continue to cooperate with hjt to promote the continuous improvement of the company’s cutting equipment and OEM service orders.
It is recommended to pay attention to the photovoltaic cell and module equipment manufacturers with multi technology layout such as [ Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) ] [ Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ] [ J.S.Corrugating Machinery Co.Ltd(000821) ], and the relevant order performance of each company has high flexibility.
Risk warning: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the technical iteration is less than expected, and the upstream price fluctuation risk.
