This week (2022.4.1-2022.4.8), the building materials sector (SW) rose 1.16%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose – 0.96%, and the excess return was 2.12%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was 413 million yuan.
[Zhou viewpoint]
At present, the overall demand is still weak. Under the pressure of steady economic growth, the policy space is expected to be further strengthened. It is expected that the development of infrastructure investment is still an important starting point. The follow-up policy support is expected to be intensively introduced. Recently, the national standing committee also continued to express the signal of steady growth and required to release the special debt quota as soon as possible. At the same time, under the pressure of real estate data, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Quzhou and other places have relaxed policies on real estate purchase and loan restrictions since March. Under the expectation of stable real estate, the marginal relaxation of policies can still be expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of the sector under demand and policy improvement, and recommend the cement sector and consumer building materials sector.
1. Cement sector: the short-term epidemic affects the demand performance, and the expectation of wide credit and stable growth continues to increase, which is expected to benefit. In the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control on the recovery of demand, the cement price fluctuated, and the inventory pressure increased; In the medium term, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
2. Glass sector: the price has dropped, and the subsequent demand and downstream orders still need to be observed. At present, the demand for glass has been affected by factors such as the real estate capital chain and the epidemic, and the recovery is slow, and the price has fallen. The subsequent price performance needs to be promoted by the factors of terminal demand or supply side. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase in the fuel cost of the original coal-fired production line in the north from coal to gas is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (deep processing, electronics, medicine, photovoltaic glass and other industrial chain extension is quite bright, with high dividend rate), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (photovoltaic glass expands vigorously, electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
3. In terms of consumption of building materials, from the sales and land acquisition data of the top 100 real estate enterprises, the demand pressure on the short-term real estate side is still large. Some cities have begun to introduce policies to relax loan and purchase restrictions, and the policy margin has been relaxed, paying attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of the sector; From the perspective of fundamentals, in the first half of the year, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected. On the profit side, the high pressure on the upstream raw material price is still there, which still tests the profitability, but the price transmission and product structure adjustment are expected to hedge some of the impact; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continuously track the marginal changes of the policy, especially in the window period after the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the valuation fluctuation will be more sensitive to the policy expectation; It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the leaders of engineering building materials with growth, especially the companies that have established the small b customer development and multi category sales system of sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range, and recommend Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ; It is recommended that Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
[weekly data of subdivided industries]
1. Cement: this week, the national cement market price fluctuated downward, down 0.6% month on month. The price decline areas are mainly concentrated in East China and Central South China, with a range of 20-30 yuan / ton; The price rise area is mainly Chongqing, with a range of 70-80 yuan / ton. After the Qingming Festival, the demand of China’s cement market has increased slightly. Due to the recurrence of the epidemic, the control in areas is still relatively strict, especially the poor road transportation, which hinders the recovery of downstream demand. At the same time, due to the shortage of downstream funds, the demand is tepid, and the cement price maintains a volatile adjustment trend.
The average price of cement market in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is 559 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of – 5 yuan / ton and a year-on-year increase of + 124 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 536 yuan / ton, with a week on week ratio of – 5 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 23 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the Yangtze River Basin is 514 yuan / ton, with a weekly comparison of + 2 yuan / ton and a year-on-year comparison of + 20 yuan / ton; The average price of cement market in Guangdong and Guangxi is 485 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of – 43 yuan / ton.
The cement inventory in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 56.6%, with a week on week ratio of + 3.4%; Cement inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin was 71.9%, with a week on week ratio of + 2.5%; Inventory in the Yangtze River Basin was 71.8%, with a week on week ratio of + 1.6%; The inventory of Guangdong and Guangdong regions was 74%, unchanged from last week.
2. Glass: the average price of float glass in China this week was 204576 yuan / ton, down 12.79 yuan / ton or 0.62% from the average price last week (205855 yuan / ton). China’s float glass market rose and fell this week, with little change in the overall price, and the transaction is still flexible. The downstream replenishment in some regions has temporarily come to an end, and the inventory in most regions has increased during the week. Recently, uncertain factors in the market have heated up, shipments in some regions are limited, and the market is too wait-and-see. The demand is not improved enough, the overall market expectation is still weak, and the short-term adjustment space is temporarily limited under the thin profit. Pay attention to the later logistics and transaction changes. The weight of the sample is 57.73 million boxes, compared with that of the sample of enterprises in the same period of last year.
3. Glass fiber: Taishan Glass Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces alkali free roving of various specifications. At present, 17 tank kiln production lines are in production, with an annual production capacity of 1065000 tons. The recent market demand is weak. Recently, the manufacturer’s overall shipment is general, and the transportation is limited in stages. The price of glass fiber yarn has been adjusted steadily. The manufacturer’s external ex factory prices in the northern market are as follows: 2400tex jet yarn at 9800 yuan / ton, 2400texsmc yarn at 8600 yuan / ton, 2400tex winding yarn at 64006500 yuan / ton, thermoplastic direct yarn at 71007200 yuan / ton, 2400tex felt yarn / sheet yarn at 9000 yuan / ton. Electronic yarn: Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces tank kiln electronic yarn. There are two electronic level tank kiln lines in normal production, with an annual output of about 110000 tons. The main products are G75, G37, G150, e225, D450 and other models. G37 is basically used by itself. Recently, the price of electronic yarn G75 of the manufacturer has been temporarily stable after adjustment. At present, the mainstream quotation is 85009000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of class a products, including tax, is slightly different from that of different customers. The actual transaction is according to the contract, but at present, the manufacturer has few sources of goods for export and has a large amount of self consumption. Wooden pallet packaging and plastic pipe recycling, with a time limit of 3 months. The main delivery areas are Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, the production and sales of China’s electronic cloth (7628 cloth) are generally in the market. At present, the quotation is about 3.4 yuan / meter, and the actual transaction is according to the contract.
Risk tip: repeated macro policies and sharp depreciation of exchange rate.
