Coal consumption in the off-season superimposed epidemic control to suppress downstream demand, and the price of thermal coal continued to decline. As of April 8, the pithead price of Shaanxi Yulin power lump coal (q6000) was 1160.0 yuan / ton, down 60.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, up 535 yuan / ton over the same period last year; The pit mouth price of sticky coal (including tax) (q5500) in the southern suburb of Datong was 1000.0 yuan / ton, down 60.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, up 425 yuan / ton over the same period last year; Inner Mongolia Dongsheng large clean coal truck sector price (q5500) was 946.0 yuan / ton, down 5.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, up 429 yuan / ton over the same period last year.
The bidding of power plants is reduced, and the mood of transportation is weak. 6190 Qinhuangdao Port Railway arrived this week, down 13.23% from the previous week; Qinhuangdao Port handled 490000 tons, down 14.63% from the previous week. As of April 7, the inventory of the four major ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao port, Huanghua port, Caofeidian port and east port of Jingtang Port) was 12.54 million tons (an increase of 110000 tons on a weekly basis), the number of anchor ships was 98.0 (a decrease of 11.00 on a weekly basis), the cargo ship ratio (inventory to ship ratio) was 12.8 and the weekly basis increased by 1.39. Recently, the trading mood of the port is low, and the downstream receiving mood is not high.
The temperature picked up, the output of new energy power increased, the demand of users weakened, and all provinces entered the stage of replenishment. As of April 7, the coal inventory in the eight coastal provinces was 28.094 million tons, with a week on week increase of 392000 tons (a week on week increase of 1.42%), the daily consumption was 1.675 million tons, a week on week decrease of 126000 tons / day (- 7.00%), and the available days were 16.8 days, with a week on week increase of 1.40%. As of April 8, the market price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (q5500) produced in Shanxi was 900.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. International coal price: as of April 7, the FOB spot price of Newcastle newc5500 kcal thermal coal was US $192.4/t, down US $7.6/t on a weekly basis; The spot price of ara6000 kcal thermal coal was 290.05 US dollars / ton, up 1.3 US dollars / ton on a weekly basis; Richard RB's FOB spot price of thermal coal was US $236.95/ton, up US $11.9/ton on a weekly basis. As of April 8, the active contract of thermal coal futures fell by 37.4 yuan / ton to 803.2 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week, and the futures discount was 481.8 yuan / ton. This week, the European Commission put forward the fifth set of sanctions against Russia. The market is expected to be tight, and the coal prices of the three ports in Europe and Richards port in South Africa stopped falling and rebounded.
Coke: the sentiment of China's steel coke coal market is stable. As of April 8, 2022, Fenwei CCI Luliang quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3560 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 12.66% and a year-on-year increase of 92.43%. Port index: CCI Rizhao quasi first grade metallurgical coke reported 3850 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 6% on a monthly basis, up 79.07% year-on-year. Some coke enterprises raised the ex factory price of coke; The inventory of coking enterprises has increased this week, but it is still at a low level; With the expected increase in the resumption of production of the steel plant, it is expected that the demand for replenishment in the later stage will not weaken.
Coking coal: the market sentiment is stable and the price has increased. As of April 8, CCI Shanxi low sulfur index was 3305 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 90 yuan / ton and a monthly increase of 105 yuan / ton; CCI Shanxi high sulfur index was 2950 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 160 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; Lingshi fat coal index was 2950 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 250 yuan / ton on a monthly basis. Recently, the market sentiment has been stable and the auction transaction has increased; Overseas coking coal prices weakened, the price difference between Chinese and foreign coking coal decreased, and traders began to purchase non Australian Maritime coking coal in an appropriate amount.
We believe that at present, we are in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal sector is at the right time. This week, the European Commission announced its fifth set of sanctions against Russia, including banning the import of Russian coal and Russian ships from entering EU ports. The tight coal supply is expected to drive the rise of coal futures and port spot prices in European countries. From the perspective of supply, Indonesia's coal production capacity is at full capacity, and there is no potential for improvement in the short term; The main coal producing areas in Australia have been affected by weather factors recently, and the coal output has decreased significantly year-on-year. At the same time, due to the lack of capital expenditure in the past five years, it is difficult to repair the output in the next three years, and the tight pattern of international coal supply and demand remains unchanged. It needs to be emphasized again that the fundamental reason for the current rise in global energy prices is the lack of production capacity under the energy supply cycle combined with the over issuance of global currencies for a long time. It is a round of energy inflation dominated by the supply cycle. The outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not change its fundamental logic. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is a reasonable stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector. Investment rating: we continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Risk factors: coal mine safety production accidents in key companies; Downstream energy and power consumption departments continue to limit production on a large scale; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
