Core view
In the post real estate cycle this week, the performance of kitchen appliances, furniture and black household appliances was relatively strong. The CSI 300 index fell 1.06% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, kitchen appliances and furniture rose 0.52% and 0.34% respectively this week, while black household appliances fell 0.91% this week, outperforming the market by 1.59pct, 1.40pct and 0.15pct respectively. Small household appliances, services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , white household appliances and lighting electricians fell 4.43%, 4.15%, 1.67% and 1.54% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 3.37pct, 3.09pct, 0.61pct and 0.48pct respectively.
Domestic sales: in March, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to grow negatively year-on-year. (1) Upstream raw material prices: this week, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture fell, the price of copper rose, the price of aluminum and stainless steel fell, the price of ABS fell and the price of PC remained unchanged. (2) China’s real estate demand: from January to February 2022, the year-on-year decline in the sales area of new houses narrowed, and the completed area turned to a year-on-year negative growth; In March 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to grow negatively year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2022, the national residential sales area decreased by 13.8% and the completed area decreased by 9.6% year-on-year; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in March 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China’s top 10 cities was 41900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 47%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses nationwide was about 38000 in February 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%. (3) Retail tracking: from January to February 2022, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances increased by 12.7% year-on-year. In terms of sub categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, the online retail sales of kitchen appliances, dishwashers and integrated stoves in February 2022 increased by 39.5%, 22.7% and 175.3% year-on-year respectively, and the online sales of kitchen appliances, cleaning appliances and floor sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) decreased by 8.5%, 13.0% and 13.8% year-on-year respectively.
Export: from January to February, the export volume of furniture increased by 2% year-on-year, and the export volume of household appliances decreased by 4% year-on-year. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in February 2022, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 2% year-on-year, with continuous negative growth; In February 2022, the number of new construction projects increased by 22% year-on-year, with a positive year-on-year increase. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: from January to February 2022, the export volume of furniture increased by 2% year-on-year, and the export volume of household appliances decreased by 4% year-on-year. According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric kettle, toaster and other categories in January 2022 was significantly higher than that in December 2021, but the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric frying pan, microwave oven and other categories decreased. In February 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of microwave ovens increased compared with January, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports of other categories fell to varying degrees.
Investment proposal and investment object
It is suggested to select the real estate post cycle leader that builds a solid foundation in emerging channels and category integration. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized household leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ( Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ( Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) ( Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ( Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , not rated), software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ( Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , not rated); Benefiting from the continued penetration of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, which have benefited from the continued penetration of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances. It is recommended to focus on China’s sweeping the floor ‘ Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) \ \ Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) ( Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) , overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
