Key investment points
Electrical equipment 9861 fell 4.68%, weaker than the market. This week (from April 4 to April 8, the same below), power generation and power grid rose 0.58%, industrial control automation rose 0%, wind power fell 2.22%, nuclear power fell 3.26%, power generation equipment fell 3.69%, new energy vehicles fell 4.41%, lithium batteries fell 4.51% and photovoltaic fell 5.2%. The top five gainers are Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) , Tellhow Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(600590) , Tianma Bearing Group Co.Ltd(002122) , Fujian Superpipe Co.Ltd(300198) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ; The top five declines were Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shenzhen Topraysolar Co.Ltd(002218) , Changshu Fengfan Power Equipment Co.Ltd(601700) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: affected by the epidemic, Tesla's Shanghai factory was shut down for more than 10 days; The supply chain was affected by the epidemic, and Weilai official announced the suspension of vehicle production; GAC AEAN adjusted the price again, with a maximum increase of 10000 yuan; Chery new energy again announced a price increase of 29005000 yuan; Tesla Texas factory officially opened, and the price of m3 in the United States increased by 1 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 0 dollars; SNE: February Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) global installed capacity was 8.3gwh, accounting for 32%, and China Innovation Airlines surpassed Samsung SDI for the first time, accounting for 4% Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) German factory obtains the production license of electric cell; Geometry delivered 10000 + vehicles in March and 26000 vehicles in Q1, a year-on-year increase of + 448%; Metal cobalt is quoted at 568500 yuan / ton, which is - 1.4% this week (month on month, the same below); nickel is quoted at 221000 yuan / ton, which is - 2.2% this week; manganese is quoted at 17500 yuan / ton, which is - 4.4% this week; metal lithium is quoted at 3.15 million yuan / ton, which is + 0.6% this week; battery grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 517400 yuan / ton, which is the same this week; lithium hydroxide is quoted at 491500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week; industrial grade DMC dimethyl carbonate is quoted at 5800 yuan / ton, which is + 1.8% this week, The quotation of Sanyuan 622 cathode is 395000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of Sanyuan 811 cathode is 422500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 164500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of PVDF is 675000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of Sanyuan PVDF is 850000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. New energy: India made a final anti-dumping decision on Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) fluorine coated backplane to China; Develop distributed photovoltaic according to local conditions! The national development and Reform Commission issued the implementation plan of the 14th five year plan for the construction of Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration; Scenery 558gw +! 22. The 14th five year plan for installation was issued China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) 2022 first quarter photovoltaic power generation 1.434 billion kwh, an increase of 55.05%; New energy has become the largest power source in Gansu; According to solarzoom, the monocrystalline silicon material this week was 252 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The quotation of 166 / 182 / 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 5.55/6.7/9.05 yuan / wafer, which is flat / flat / + 2.03% month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.12 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc components was 1.84 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of glass 3.2mm/2.0mm is 27.5/21.15 yuan / square meter, with a ring increase of 5.77%. Industrial Control & Power Grid: in March, the industrial control company shipped 170 million servo products in Yaskawa, yoy-51%; Panasonic 130 million, yoy-13%; Delta 132 million, yoy-18%; Low voltage inverter abb3 900 million, yoy-5%; YASKAWA 86 million, yoy-14%; Medium and large PLC Schneider 400 million, yoy + 25%.
Company level: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 will be 280300 million yuan, an increase of 134% - 151% at the same time Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : Quzhou subsidiary, which was affected by the epidemic and reduced production, resumed work and production in an orderly manner on April 4, 2022 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) : the company's preferential electricity price policy in Yunnan has been cancelled, which will increase the production cost of the company's Yunnan base Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 500600 million yuan in 2022q1, an increase of 117.19% - 160.63% at the same time Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) : invest 20.6 billion yuan to build 120000 tons of high-purity polysilicon and other projects in Inner Mongolia Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) : won the bid for 66kV submarine cable and laying works (bid section a) of Yuedian Yangjiang Qingzhou No.1 and No.2 Haifeng project, about 298 million yuan Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 1.3-1.55 billion yuan in 2022q1, an increase of 408% - 506% at the same time Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) : it is proposed to establish a joint venture with minshi automotive technology to carry out the business of water-cooled sector products and related spare parts in Europe, with a capital contribution of 51 million yuan, accounting for 51% of the equity China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) : it is proposed to plan an equity incentive plan with a total of no more than 8 million shares, accounting for no more than 2.65% of the total share capital Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology Co.Ltd(688676) : won the bidding for reduction furnace dry-type converter transformer equipment of Gansu Baofeng polysilicon upstream and downstream collaborative project, and the bid winning amount is expected to exceed 100 million yuan Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) : it is proposed to invest 5 billion yuan in the construction of 20GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project Byd Company Limited(002594) : in March, the output of new energy vehicles was 106700 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 416.96%; The sales volume was 104900 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 422.97% Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) : in the 21st year, the revenue was 2.063 billion yuan, an increase of 84% at the same time, and the net profit was 316 million yuan, an increase of 15.19% at the same time Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) : in 2021, the revenue was 4.054 billion yuan, an increase of 111.72%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 351 million yuan, an increase of 72.98% Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 to be 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 892% - 995% at the same time.
Investment strategy: in March, the sales volume of China's mainstream auto enterprises was bright. We expect that the sales volume in March will be 45 Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) 0000, which is better than the market expectation; Q1 sales volume is 1.2 million vehicles +, and there is no suspense for 6 million vehicles in the whole year + (with an increase of 70%). In April, the industry production scheduling was still affected by the epidemic, and the month on month ratio was basically flat. However, Q2 new cars were released intensively, and the peak sales season gradually came. We expect the month on month growth of lithium battery production scheduling in June to increase, and the leader is expected to double the growth in the whole year. In Europe, electric vehicles grew against the trend in March. It has been disclosed that the total sales volume of nine mainstream countries was 206000 units, with a month on month ratio of + 7% / + 61%. Although the growth rate slowed down, the penetration rate was 23.0%, with a month on month ratio of + 5.8 / + 2.4pct further improved, and it is still expected to increase by 30% to 2.8 million units in the whole year; The United States sold 83000 electric vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of + 66% / + 19%. If the policy is implemented in the middle of the year, the annual sales volume is expected to double to 1.3 million. It is estimated that 10 million electric vehicles will be sold in the world in 22 years + (with an increase of 60%). 25 years ago, the average value of growth was expected to continue to be high. At present, the market expectation and valuation are obviously low. We are strongly optimistic about the oversold and reversal of the electric vehicle sector and push the leader of lithium battery in all links. EU's PV demand in the medium term is more optimistic, and it is expected to exceed market expectations in 2022. The global PV installed capacity in 2022 is 240250gw, an increase of nearly 50%, of which China is expected to be about 90gw, an increase of 65% + at the same time. From a micro perspective, the module production was reduced slightly in March to cope with the cost pressure and the downstream price increase. In April, the transmission and production scheduling of the component price increase was slightly improved, and the decline expectation in March was relatively pessimistic. The actual demand was good and the growth was clear. We continued to be optimistic about the module Inverter link and high-quality faucet.
The domestic substitution of industrial control continued, and the boom began to pick up in December of the 21st year. The growth of leading orders from January to February exceeded market expectations, focusing on the leading Huichuan. After the rush to install wind power, the cost fell sharply and entered the era of parity. The land wind resumed growth in 22 years and the sea wind resumed growth in 23 years. Pay attention to new export opportunities after parity. Power grid investment is expected to increase steadily, focusing on the structural opportunities brought by the new power system.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery performance exceeding expectations, high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantage), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (overall layout of power lithium battery and steady growth of consumer batteries), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader in wet diaphragm and strong profitability), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader in negative electrode and diaphragm coating), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and new lithium salt leader) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers, high-volume and high-volume increase can be expected), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader, high capacity release and high-volume increase can be expected), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte and fluorochemicals go hand in hand, low valuation), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (general automation demand gradually warms up, powertrain makes a comprehensive breakthrough), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader in monocrystalline silicon chips and components, strong comprehensive strength) Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated component leader, expected profit elasticity in 2022), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (positive stable leader, strong profitability and low valuation), Byd Company Limited(002594) (electric vehicle sales continue to exceed market expectations, accelerated external supply of blade batteries), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (series inverter dragon head, high performance growth), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (210 component leader, outbreak of household system) Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (the global leader of inverter and the prospective layout of energy storage), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (the demand of iron and lithium supermarket is expected and the profit is higher than expected), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (the leader of carbon nanotube conductive agent has entered the upper volume stage), Hemai Co., Ltd. (the shipment of micro reverse leader is expected to double continuously and the U.S. market begins to increase in volume), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt leader and positive prepolymer leader) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary prepolymer, high-quality and rapid production expansion of customers), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter, power of energy storage business), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe leader, photosensitive dry film loading), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays, exceeding market expectations in 2021), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (global leader of thermal management, steady growth value underestimated) A Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) \;, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Jingke energy, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
